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April 4, 2010

Pre-Season Predictions

Staff Picks for 2010

by Baseball Prospectus

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Picking favorites for the Wild Card for the respective leagues initially might have seemed easy, since the selections universally favored the second-place team in the AL East, while all but two voters picked their second-place teams in the NL East to earn the non-division champ playoff team, but a tie in the rankings had to be broken in favor of the team named the Wild Card winner on the most individual ballots, which is sure to upset some people.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.

American League Standings

AL East

AL Central

AL West 

Individual Awards

AL MVP

1. 3B Evan Longoria, Rays 8, 72 (6)
2. C Joe Mauer, Twins 8, 57 (1)
3. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees 4, 32 (2)
4. 1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees 4, 30 (2)
5. 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 3, 20 (1)
6. 1B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 2, 12 
7. 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 2, 14
8. CF Torii Hunter, Angels 1, 5
9. C Victor Martinez, Red Sox 1, 5
10. CF Grady Sizemore, Indians 1, 5 

AL Cy Young 

1. Felix Hernandez, Mariners 7, 31 (5) 
2. Justin Verlander, Tigers 7, 22 (3) 
3. Jon Lester, Red Sox 7, 21 (1) 
4. CC Sabathia, Yankees 4, 14 (2) 
5. Zack Greinke, Royals 4, 6 
6. Javier Vazquez, Yankees 1, 5 (1)
7. Josh Beckett, Red Sox 1, 3 
8. Fausto Carmona, Indians 1, 1
9. Matt Garza, Rays 1, 1
10. Rick Porcello, Tigers 1, 1

AL RotY

1. SP Brian Matusz, Orioles 10, 44 (7) 
2. SP Neftali Feliz, Rangers 9, 23 (1) 
3. CF Austin Jackson, Tigers 6, 20 (3) 
4. SP Wade Davis, Rays 3, 9 (1) 
5. C Carlos Santana, Indians 3, 9 (1) 
6. C J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays  1, 1
7. 1B Chris Carter, Oakland 1, 1 
8. SP Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays 1, 1 
9. 2B Sean Rodriguez, Rays 1, 1 

National League Standings

NL East 

NL Central

NL West

Individual Awards

NL MVP

1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals 11, 95 (6) 
2. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies 8, 61 (3) 
3. SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies 4, 30 (2) 
4. 1B Prince Fielder, Brewers 3, 19 
5. CF Jay Bruce, Reds 1, 10 (1)
6. RF Justin Upton, Diamondbacks 2, 10 
7. CF Matt Kemp, Dodgers 1, 7
8. LF Ryan Braun, Brewers 1, 5
9. RF Andre Ethier, Dodgers 1, 5
10. SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 1, 5
11. LF Manny Ramirez, Dodgers 1, 5

NL Cy Young

1. Roy Halladay, Phillies 10, 36 (5) 
2. Tim Lincecum, Giants 7, 23 (2)
3. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks 4, 16 (3) 
4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 3, 9 (1)   
5. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies 1, 5 (1) 
6. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals 3, 5 
7. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals 2, 4 
8. Tommy Hanson, Braves 2, 4
9. Edwin Jackson, Diamondbacks 1, 1
10. Johan Santana, Mets 1, 1

NL RotY

1. RF Jason Heyward, Braves 12, 56 (11) 
2. SP Stephen Strasburg, Nationals 10, 30 
3. SS Alcides Escobar, Brewers 5, 9 (1)
4. 3B David Freese, Cardinals 1, 3   
5. 1B Pedro Alvarez, Pirates 2, 2 
6. SP Aroldis Chapman, Reds 2, 2
7. 1B Ike Davis, Mets 1, 1
8. SP Jaime Garcia, Cardinals 1, 1 

Individual Ballots:  

• Will Carroll
• Jeff Euston
• Ken Funck
• Kevin Goldstein
• Joe Hamrahi
• Shawn Hoffman
• Jay Jaffe
• Christina Kahrl 
• David Laurila 
• Marc Normandin
• John Perrotto
• Matt Swartz

Will Carroll

AL Standings

AL MVP

1. Evan Longoria
2. Kevin Youkilis
3. Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young

1. CC Sabathia
2. Josh Beckett
3. Rick Porcello

AL RotY

1. Austin Jackson
2. Brian Matusz
3. Kyle Drabek

NL Standings

NL MVP

1. Albert Pujols
2. Prince Fielder
3. Justin Upton

NL Cy Young

1. Roy Halladay
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Adam Wainwright

NL RotY

1. Jason Heyward
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Alcides Escobar

Jeff Euston 

AL Standings

AL MVP

1. Evan Longoria
2. Joe Mauer
3. Mark Teixeira

AL Cy Young

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jon Lester
3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY

1. Brian Matusz
2. Carlos Santana
3. Neftali Feliz

NL Standings

NL MVP

1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Albert Pujols
3. Chase Utley

NL Cy Young

1. Dan Haren
2. Roy Halladay
3. Adam Wainwright

NL RotY

1. Jason Heyward
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Jaime Garcia