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April 4, 2010

Pre-Season Predictions

Staff Picks for 2010

by Baseball Prospectus

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. Picking favorites for the Wild Card for the respective leagues initially might have seemed easy, since the selections universally favored the second-place team in the AL East, while all but two voters picked their second-place teams in the NL East to earn the non-division champ playoff team, but a tie in the rankings had to be broken in favor of the team named the Wild Card winner on the most individual ballots, which is sure to upset some people.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that's been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.). Next to each of these selections we've listed the total number of ballots, followed by the total number of points, and then the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.

American League Standings

AL East

Team Average Total
Boston Red Sox 1.7 (6) 20
2t New York Yankees 2.2 (2) 26
2t Tampa Bay Rays 2.2 (4) 26
Baltimore Orioles 4.2 50
Toronto Blue Jays 4.8 58

AL Central

Team Average Total
Minnesota Twins 1.7 (7) 20
Chicago White Sox 2.2 (4) 26
Detroit Tigers 3.0 (1) 36
Cleveland Indians 3.2 38
Kansas City Royals 5.0 60

AL West 

Team Average Total
Texas Rangers 1.6 (7) 19
Seattle Mariners 2.4 (2) 29
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2.5 (2) 30
Oakland Athletics 3.5 (1) 4.2

Individual Awards

AL MVP

  1. 3B Evan Longoria, Rays 8, 72 (6)
  2. C Joe Mauer, Twins 8, 57 (1)
  3. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees 4, 32 (2)
  4. 1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees 4, 30 (2)
  5. 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 3, 20 (1)
  6. 1B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox 2, 12 
  7. 1B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 2, 14
  8. CF Torii Hunter, Angels 1, 5
  9. C Victor Martinez, Red Sox 1, 5
  10. CF Grady Sizemore, Indians 1, 5 

AL Cy Young 

  1. Felix Hernandez, Mariners 7, 31 (5) 
  2. Justin Verlander, Tigers 7, 22 (3) 
  3. Jon Lester, Red Sox 7, 21 (1) 
  4. CC Sabathia, Yankees 4, 14 (2) 
  5. Zack Greinke, Royals 4, 6 
  6. Javier Vazquez, Yankees 1, 5 (1)
  7. Josh Beckett, Red Sox 1, 3 
  8. Fausto Carmona, Indians 1, 1
  9. Matt Garza, Rays 1, 1
  10. Rick Porcello, Tigers 1, 1

AL RotY

  1. SP Brian Matusz, Orioles 10, 44 (7) 
  2. SP Neftali Feliz, Rangers 9, 23 (1) 
  3. CF Austin Jackson, Tigers 6, 20 (3) 
  4. SP Wade Davis, Rays 3, 9 (1) 
  5. C Carlos Santana, Indians 3, 9 (1) 
  6. C J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays  1, 1
  7. 1B Chris Carter, Oakland 1, 1 
  8. SP Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays 1, 1 
  9. 2B Sean Rodriguez, Rays 1, 1 

National League Standings

NL East 

Team Average Total
Philadelphia Phillies 1.2 (10) 14
Atlanta Braves 1.8 (2) 22
New York Mets 3.5 42
Florida Marlins 3.6 43
Washington Nationals 4.9 59

NL Central

Team Average Total
St. Louis Cardinals 1.0 (12) 12
Chicago Cubs 2.8 34
Milwaukee Brewers 2.9 35
Cincinnati Reds 3.4 41
Houston Astros 5.3 63
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.6 67

NL West

Team Average Total
1t Colorado Rockies 1.8 (6) 21
1t Los Angeles Dodgers 1.8 (5) 21
Arizona Diamondbacks 3.0 (1) 36
San Francisco Giants 3.5 42
San Diego Padres 5.0 60

Individual Awards

NL MVP

  1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals 11, 95 (6) 
  2. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies 8, 61 (3) 
  3. SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies 4, 30 (2) 
  4. 1B Prince Fielder, Brewers 3, 19 
  5. CF Jay Bruce, Reds 1, 10 (1)
  6. RF Justin Upton, Diamondbacks 2, 10 
  7. CF Matt Kemp, Dodgers 1, 7
  8. LF Ryan Braun, Brewers 1, 5
  9. RF Andre Ethier, Dodgers 1, 5
  10. SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins 1, 5
  11. LF Manny Ramirez, Dodgers 1, 5

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay, Phillies 10, 36 (5) 
  2. Tim Lincecum, Giants 7, 23 (2)
  3. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks 4, 16 (3) 
  4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 3, 9 (1)   
  5. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies 1, 5 (1) 
  6. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals 3, 5 
  7. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals 2, 4 
  8. Tommy Hanson, Braves 2, 4
  9. Edwin Jackson, Diamondbacks 1, 1
  10. Johan Santana, Mets 1, 1

NL RotY

  1. RF Jason Heyward, Braves 12, 56 (11) 
  2. SP Stephen Strasburg, Nationals 10, 30 
  3. SS Alcides Escobar, Brewers 5, 9 (1)
  4. 3B David Freese, Cardinals 1, 3   
  5. 1B Pedro Alvarez, Pirates 2, 2 
  6. SP Aroldis Chapman, Reds 2, 2
  7. 1B Ike Davis, Mets 1, 1
  8. SP Jaime Garcia, Cardinals 1, 1 

Individual Ballots:  

 


Will Carroll

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox White Sox Rangers
Rays* Indians Mariners
Yankees Tigers Athletics
Orioles Twins Angels
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Kevin Youkilis
  3. Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young

  1. CC Sabathia
  2. Josh Beckett
  3. Rick Porcello

AL RotY

  1. Austin Jackson
  2. Brian Matusz
  3. Kyle Drabek

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Diamondbacks
Braves* Brewers Giants
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Marlins Pirates Rockies
Nationals Astros Padres
  Reds  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Prince Fielder
  3. Justin Upton

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Adam Wainwright

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Alcides Escobar

Jeff Euston 

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Rays White Sox Mariners
Red Sox* Twins Rangers
Yankees Indians Angels
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Mark Teixeira

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Carlos Santana
  3. Neftali Feliz

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves* Cubs Dodgers
Marlins Reds Diamondbacks
Nationals Brewers Giants
Mets Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Troy Tulowitzki
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Chase Utley

NL Cy Young

  1. Dan Haren
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Adam Wainwright

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Jaime Garcia

Ken Funck 

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Yankees Twins Angels
Red Sox* White Sox Rangers
Rays Tigers Mariners
Blue Jays Indians Athletics
Orioles Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Mark Teixeira
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Kevin Youkilis

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Justin Verlander
  3. Jon Lester

AL RotY

  1. Austin Jackson 
  2. Brian Matusz
  3. Neftali Feliz

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves Cubs Dodgers *
Mets Brewers Diamondbacks
Marlins Reds Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Troy Tulowitzki
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Hanley Ramirez

NL Cy Young

  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Chris Carpenter
  3. Roy Halladay

NL RotY 

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Alcides Escobar

Kevin Goldstein

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox White Sox Rangers
Yankees* Tigers Athletics
Rays Twins Mariners
Orioles Indians Angels
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP
Alex Rodriguez

AL Cy Young
Justin Verlander

AL RotY
Brian Matusz

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Dodgers
Braves* Reds Rockies
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Brewers Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw

NL RotY
Jason Heyward


Joe Hamrahi

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Yankees Twins Rangers
Red Sox* White Sox Angels
Rays Indians Mariners
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Mark Teixeira
  2. Evan Longoria
  3. Joe Mauer

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Zack Greinke

AL RotY

  1. Carlos Santana
  2. Brian Matusz
  3. Neftali Feliz

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Dodgers
Braves* Brewers Diamondbacks
Marlins Cubs Rockies
Mets Reds Giants
Nationals Pirates Padres
  Astros  

NL MVP

  1. Chase Utley
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Justin Upton

NL Cy Young

  1. Dan Haren
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Tommy Hanson

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Alcides Escobar

Shawn Hoffman

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Yankees Twins Rangers
Rays* Indians Mariners
Red Sox White Sox Angels
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Alex Rodrigues
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Evan Longoria 

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Zack Greinke
  3. CC Sabathia

AL RotY

  1. Wade Davis
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. Carlos Santana 

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves* Brewers Dodgers
Marlins Cubs Diamondbacks
Mets Reds Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Chase Utley
  3. Manny Ramirez

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Johan Santana 

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Pedro Alvarez 

Jay Jaffe

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Rays Twins Rangers
Yankees* Tigers Mariners
Red Sox White Sox Angels
Orioles Indians Athletics
Blue Jays    
  Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Mark Teixeira

AL Cy Young

  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. CC Sabathia
  3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. Austin Jackson 

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Dodgers
Braves Brewers Rockies*
Marlins Cubs Giants
Mets Reds Diamondbacks
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Chase Utley
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Troy Tulowitzki

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Clayton Kershaw
  3. Tim Lincecum

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg 
  3. Aroldis Chapman 

Christina Kahrl

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox White Sox Angels
Rays* Twins Mariners
Yankees Indians Rangers
Orioles Tigers Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Grady Sizemore

AL Cy Young

  1. Jon Lester
  2. Felix Hernandez
  3. Justin Verlander

AL RotY

  1. Neftali Feliz
  2. Wade Davis
  3. Chris Carter (Oakland)

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Braves Cardinals Rockies
Phillies* Reds Giants
Mets Cubs Dodgers
Marlins Brewers Diamondbacks
Nationals Pirates Padres
  Astros  

NL MVP

  1. Chase Utley
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Prince Fielder

NL Cy Young

  1. Ubaldo Jimenez
  2. Adam Wainwright
  3. Dan Haren

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Pedro Alvarez

David Laurila

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox Tigers Rangers
Rays* Twins Angels
Yankees Indians Mariners
Orioles White Sox Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria 
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Victor Martinez

AL Cy Young

  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Matt Garza

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. J.P. Arencibia

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Braves Cardinals Dodgers
Phillies* Reds Rockies
Mets Brewers Diamondbacks
Marlins Cubs Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Jay Bruce
  2. Matt Kemp
  3. Ryan Braun

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Tommy Hanson
  3. Edwin Jackson

NL RotY

  1. Alcides Escobar
  2. David Freese
  3. Jason Heyward

Marc Normandin

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox Twins Rangers
Rays* Tigers Angels
Yankees White Sox Mariners
Orioles Indians Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Evan Longoria
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Kevin Youkilis

AL Cy Young

  1. Justin Verlander
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Zack Greinke

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. Austin Jackson

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves* Brewers Dodgers
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Reds Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Prince Fielder
  3. Chase Utley

NL Cy Young

  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Clayton Kershaw

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. Aroldis Chapman 

John Perrotto

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Red Sox Twins Athletics
Rays* Indians Angels
Yankees White Sox Rangers
Blue Jays Tigers Mariners
Orioles Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Dustin Pedroia
  2. Joe Mauer
  3. Torii Hunter

AL Cy Young

  1. CC Sabathia
  2. Felix Hernandez
  3. Fausto Carmona

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Austin Jackson
  3. Sean Rodriguez

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Dodgers
Braves* Cubs Rockies
Marlins Brewers Giants
Mets Reds Diamondbacks
Nationals Pirates Padres
  Astros  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Chase Utley
  3. Andre Ethier

NL Cy Young

  1. Dan Haren
  2. Tim Lincecum
  3. Roy Halladay

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg 
  3. Ike Davis 

Matt Swartz

AL Standings

AL East AL Central AL West
Yankees Twins Mariners
Red Sox* White Sox Rangers
Rays Tigers Angels
Orioles Indians Athletics
Blue Jays Royals  

AL MVP

  1. Joe Mauer
  2. Alex Rodriguez
  3. Dustin Pedroia

AL Cy Young

  1. Javier Vazquez
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Zack Greinke

AL RotY

  1. Brian Matusz
  2. Neftali Feliz
  3. Wade Davis

NL Standings

NL East NL Central NL West
Phillies Cardinals Rockies
Braves* Reds Dodgers
Mets Cubs Diamondbacks
Marlins Brewers Giants
Nationals Astros Padres
  Pirates  

NL MVP

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Chase Utley
  3. Troy Tulowitzki

NL Cy Young

  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Roy Halladay
  3. Chris Carpenter

NL RotY

  1. Jason Heyward
  2. Stephen Strasburg 
  3. Alcides Escobar 

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