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March 3, 2010

Future Shock

Top 101 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

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Kevin Goldstein has ranked the top 11 prospects in each of the 30 major-league organizations. Now, he ranks baseball's top 101 prospects.

  1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
  2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
  3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
  4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
  5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
  6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
  7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
  8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
  9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
  10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds
  11. Chris Carter, 1BAthletics
  12. Dustin Ackley, OF/2B, Mariners
  13. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays
  14. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Red Sox
  15. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
  16. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Blue Jays
  17. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
  18. Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles
  19. Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
  20. Michael Taylor, OF, Athletics
  21. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants
  22. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Rockies
  23. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Rockies
  24. Domonic Brown, OF, Phillies
  25. Jacob Turner, RHP, Tigers
  26. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins
  27. Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
  28. Derek Norris, C, Nationals
  29. Donovan Tate, OF, Padres
  30. Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox
  31. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs
  32. Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers
  33. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves
  34. Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
  35. Miguel Sano, SS, Twins
  36. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals
  37. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
  38. Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
  39. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
  40. Chris Withrow, RHP, Dodgers
  41. Matt Moore, LHP, Rays
  42. Alex Colome, LHP, Rays
  43. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
  44. Brett Wallace, 1B, Blue Jays
  45. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves
  46. Ben Revere, OF, Twins
  47. Simon Castro, RHP, Padres
  48. Jennry Mejia, RHP, Mets
  49. Austin Jackson, of, Tigers
  50. Logan Morrison, 1B, Marlins
  51. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
  52. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Diamondbacks
  53. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
  54. Aaron Crow, RHP, Royals
  55. Dan Hudson, RHP, White Sox
  56. Tim Beckham, SS, Rays
  57. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers
  58. Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox
  59. Mike Leake, RHP, Reds
  60. Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals
  61. Jared Mitchell, OF, White Sox
  62. Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners
  63. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Cubs
  64. James Darnell, 3B, Padres
  65. Wilson Ramos, C, Twins
  66. Michael Inoa, RHP, Athletics
  67. Todd Frazier, 2B, Reds
  68. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Rangers
  69. Reid Brignac, SS, Rays
  70. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles
  71. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins
  72. Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox
  73. Zach Britton, RHP, Orioles
  74. Jaff Decker, OF, Padres
  75. Tony Sanchez, C, Pirates
  76. Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox
  77. Alex White, RHP, Indians
  78. Phillippe Aumount, RHP, Phillies
  79. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
  80. Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets
  81. Hank Conger, C, Angels
  82. Jason Knapp, RHP, Indians
  83. Wil Myers, C, Royals
  84. Wilmer Flores, SS, Mets
  85. Brandon Allen, 1B, Diamondbacks
  86. Grant Green, SS, Athletics
  87. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets
  88. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Giants
  89. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
  90. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates
  91. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Indians
  92. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Angels
  93. Tim Melville, RHP, Royals
  94. Gabriel Noriega, SS, Mariners
  95. Fabio Martinez, RHP, Angels
  96. Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs
  97. Jio Mier, SS, Astros
  98. Ethan Martin, RHP, Dodgers
  99. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers
  100. Jason Castro, C, Astros
  101. Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

57 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

leites

Thanks! Curious why Gabriel Noriega ranked ahead of Jio Mier.

Mar 03, 2010 09:47 AM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

As a public service, here are the counts by organization:
Rays 7
Angels 5
Indians 5
Royals 5
Twins 5
A's 4
Braves 4
Cubs 4
Mets 4
Nats 4
O's 4
Padres 4
Rangers 4
Red Sox 4
Tigers 4
Dodgers 3
Giants 3
Mariners3
Pirates 3
Reds 3
WhiteSox3
Astros 2
BlueJays2
Brewers 2
D'backs 2
Marlins 2
Phils 2
Rockies 2
Cards 1
Yankees 1

Mar 03, 2010 09:56 AM
rating: 37
 
Sparky's Pitch Fork

Well played.

Mar 03, 2010 10:02 AM
rating: 0
 
sunpar

Using a quick, simple (and bad) scoring system where Strasburg=101 points, Heyward=100 points, Espinosa=1 point, etc. here are the ranking.

Rays 452
Rangers 305
Braves 277
Twins 267
Tigers 245
Red Sox 230
Nationals 218
Indians 209
Orioles 208
Padres 194
Giants 188
Cubs 181
Reds 170
Royals 165
Rockies 159
Marlins 149
Blue Jays 144
Dodgers 141
Mariners 138
Pirates 135
Athletics 134
White Sox 118
Mets 109
Phillies 102
Angels 100
Yankees 98
Athletics 91
Brewers 86
Diamondbacks 67
Cardinals 64
Astros 7

Mar 03, 2010 10:38 AM
rating: 8
 
Hoff

Not very useful. Is logan morrison 50 times better than espinosa? Would you really trade 10 guys in the 80's-90s for strasburg?

Mar 03, 2010 11:13 AM
rating: -3
 
preams

I don't know...ten Danny Espinozas for one Strasburg might be a better deal for the team that got Strasburg.

Mar 03, 2010 13:59 PM
rating: 4
 
fawcettb

Yes, probably.

Mar 03, 2010 16:06 PM
rating: 0
 
sbussmann

I'm really interested in seeing how much each of these teams has spent on the draft + international signings over the past three years. I would expect a strong correlation!

Mar 03, 2010 11:24 AM
rating: 0
 
A's Fan 38 Yrs

Can I add 91 to 134 to get the A's total score?

Mar 03, 2010 12:59 PM
rating: 3
 
dianagram

And here are the counts by position:
RHP 31
OF 19
LHP 12
SS 12
C 10
1B 7
3B 6
2B 3
OF/2B 1

Mar 03, 2010 10:01 AM
rating: 18
 
David Schwalb

This is interesting, but not completely suprising. We see a combination of the defensive spectrum and pitching. I wonder how the OF prospects would break down LF/CF/RF now, and when they actually make the bigs.

Mar 03, 2010 10:17 AM
rating: 0
 
timhulettfan

Count Z Britton as a LHP

Mar 03, 2010 21:02 PM
rating: 0
 
markjstachura

What about Jeff?

Mar 03, 2010 10:05 AM
rating: -2
 
offbase99

My guess is that Matusz at 18 is probably the most controversial selection on this list, although it's consistent with KG's methodology. (Personally, I have him as a no-doubt-about-it top 5, but I understand the upside argument against him.)

The one I'm having a harder time figuring out is how Posey fell all the way to #9.

Mar 03, 2010 10:12 AM
rating: 0
 
James282

Thanks Kevin! So if Morrow ranks above Kyle Drabek on the Blue Jays list, would you consider him a top 15 prospect? Seems like a stretch.

Mar 03, 2010 10:13 AM
rating: 0
 
Adam Hobson

I do believe that Morrow was a pretty decent prospect in his day, but I think you have to evaluate actual major leaguers differently than just prospects. Youngsters already in the Majors have already "made it". Morrow may not have the ceiling that Drabek has (or maybe he does, that's besides my point), but since he's already got major league experience his floor is much much higher considering there is always the chance however small that Drabek could flame out before reaching the majors. So Morrow's expected value is greater than Drabek's even if his potential talent level may be less.

Mar 03, 2010 18:26 PM
rating: 3
 
Henry F.

Kevin, how often do you argue with KLaw about this sort of thing? I notice, for example, that you have Starlin Castro 37th while Law has him up at 12th. I know you have your reservations, but that's a pretty big disparity.

Mar 03, 2010 10:13 AM
rating: -2
 
mikeduin

Another big one - Kevin has Pedro Alvarez at #6, Baseball America has him at #8, and Keith Law has him at....#35? ...????

Mar 03, 2010 11:48 AM
rating: 1
 
Amos

I think you guys are reading too much into rankings. To be grouped with the top few dozen prospects in the game is a lot more significant than where you rank among those small handful.

Mar 03, 2010 14:13 PM
rating: 3
 
Richie

Dianagram, while you're feeling ambitious, maybe a points system? 100 points for #1 Strasburg, 99 for #2 Heyward, and so on.

Yes, I'm too lazy to do stuff on my own.

Mar 03, 2010 10:27 AM
rating: -2
 
dianagram

Are you suggested an "average rating" by team/position. If so, I would reply "small sample size"

Mar 03, 2010 10:29 AM
rating: 2
 
dianagram

and I would also suggest that there might be valleys of difference between slots 1 & 2, than between slots 73 & 74 (for example)

Mar 03, 2010 10:32 AM
rating: 2
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

What she said. That's the big thing. I see a question in here about having one guy ahead of another when both are in the 90s. I wouldn't get too worked up about something like that.

Mar 03, 2010 11:01 AM
 
raygu1

KG-thanks for the list. I am surprised with how high you rank Dee Gordon. Hopefully, you can answer in today's chat why you rank him so high.
Is 2012 when he should be ready for the bigs?

Mar 03, 2010 10:28 AM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

Here is the list with team, count, and average rank (the lower the better)

Angels 5 82.0
Astros 2 98.5
A's 4 45.8
BlueJays2 30.0
Braves 4 32.8
Brewers 2 59.0
Cards 1 38.0
Cubs 4 56.8
D'backs 2 68.5
Dodgers 3 55.0
Giants 3 39.3
Indians 5 60.2
Mariners3 56.0
Marlins 2 27.5
Mets 4 74.8
Nats 4 47.5
Orioles 4 50.0
Padres 4 53.5
Phillies2 51.0
Pirates 3 57.0
Rangers 4 25.8
Rays 7 37.4
Red Sox 4 44.5
Reds 3 45.3
Rockies 2 22.5
Royals 5 69.0
Tigers 4 40.8
Twins 5 48.6
WhiteSox3 62.7
Yankees 1 4.0

(yeah, I should probably add standard deviation) :-)

Mar 03, 2010 10:47 AM
rating: 0
 
Robmoore
(622)

What do you think of doing a Top-101 under 25, like you do for each individual team's Top 11?

Mar 03, 2010 10:52 AM
rating: 23
 
modofacid

I would love to see this

Mar 03, 2010 10:55 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

A LOT LOT LOT of people are asking this, so it would be bad to say no. I'm trying to figure out the best way to do it, but you'll see it before spring training is over.

Mar 03, 2010 11:10 AM
 
ruben398

Ooh, let the Strasburg vs. Mauer vs. Longoria vs. Lincecum debate begin!

Good luck with that list, Kevin. It's going to be a tough one!

Mar 03, 2010 15:07 PM
rating: 2
 
Patrick

Mauer's 26, otherwise, that's a good debate.

Mar 08, 2010 21:24 PM
rating: 0
 
RFKRFK

Well, you sort of started the list when you did your "Top 20 of the New Decade" article...

Mar 04, 2010 12:09 PM
rating: 0
 
hessshaun

That would be very interesting. There are so many players, I wouldn't mind that being broken up by division or even league. It's like a kid at a candy store. Obviously by division 101 wouldn't be feasible, but you could rank to irrelevancy. It would be interesting to see where the most young talent is versus what we know to be quality divisions.

Mar 04, 2010 06:57 AM
rating: 0
 
CRP13

Wow. The Astros suck. Still.

Mar 03, 2010 10:56 AM
rating: 4
 
ZacharyRD

Huge props to the people in this comment thread for doing some of the interesting number crunching - that was what I was actually looking for when I opened the article in the first place.

Mar 03, 2010 11:16 AM
rating: 3
 
dianagram

You are welcome ...

(data analyst by day) :-)

Mar 03, 2010 11:17 AM
rating: 0
 
ZacharyRD

PECOTA error: Michael Taylor is a Phillie when I click on his name and an A in this article.

Mar 03, 2010 11:17 AM
rating: 0
 
Nathan J. Miller

My hunch is that's because the link takes you to his 2009 projection (when he WAS a Phillie). It looks like the team is correct on the 2010 beta cards.

Mar 03, 2010 11:29 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Dave Pease
BP staff
(2)

this is correct--we haven't updated the linker to point at 2010 cards yet. will do so soon. thanks.

Mar 03, 2010 11:58 AM
 
cavebird

Interesting list. Very different in many respects from many of the other lists. As a Braves fan and devoted fan of the Second Coming, I take offense at Strasburg being ranked higher than Heyward, but as they are the consensus 1-2 everywhere, I guess I can't gripe that much for your getting the order wrong.

I guess the players that surprise me in relation to other lists are Matusz (lower than most places), Chapman (higher than most places), Bumgarner (lower), Domonic Brown (lower), Teheran (higher), Starlin Castro (lower), Revere (higher), Vizcaino (higher), and Hak-Ju Lee (higher). Kevin, do you think that this is due to some philosophical difference between you and other people or entities that issue prospect lists or just individual player evaluations? Since I know the Braves the best, I will note that you, unlike most, rank Teheran and Vizcaino ahead of Freeman. While both have electric stuff, very young pitchers are notoriously unreliable due to injury and other factors. Maybe you are more of an upside guy?

Mar 03, 2010 11:27 AM
rating: 0
 
cavebird

Wow guys, I got hide rated for that? I asked a serious question about his method and reasoning for ranking prospects. I half expected some type of response.

For future reference, if you hide-rated my comment and wouldn't mind, please tell me why so I can no to avoid making such comments in the future.

Mar 03, 2010 20:12 PM
rating: -3
 
BP staff member Jay Jaffe
BP staff

Kevin is King Upside. See http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=717 for more about his methodology.

Mar 04, 2010 20:56 PM
 
Richie

Likewise, much much thanks, Dianagram!

Mar 03, 2010 11:59 AM
rating: 0
 
Sal T

Where would Grant Desme fit on this list?

Mar 03, 2010 12:11 PM
rating: 0
 
LouisArighi

Well, given that Catholics believe that no one is greater than God, I assume that Desme would be no higher than #2 on this list. . .

Mar 03, 2010 12:55 PM
rating: 8
 
davidsk87

Rankings are the same as the book; the only changes are that Desme (ranked 66th) has been removed, and Chapman (not in the book) is now on the list.

Mar 03, 2010 13:10 PM
rating: 0
 
basejaw

Thanks a lot Kevin...much appreciated.

Mar 03, 2010 12:28 PM
rating: 0
 
mymrbig

What's one of your nicknames again, Velo King or something like that? Seems fitting with your rankings of Teheran, Shelby Miller, Withrow, Colome, Vizcaino, Mejia, and Martin!

Thanks for the list, good stuff.

Mar 03, 2010 13:11 PM
rating: 0
 
Benjamin Harris

I believe it's "Velo Whore." Much more entertaining than King, and something only a baseball scout could come up with.

Mar 03, 2010 18:17 PM
rating: 0
 
bowerpower

Thanks for the chat today. Those can be just as useful as lists or prospect write-ups.

Mar 03, 2010 14:42 PM
rating: 0
 
rweiler

The question I really want answered is how was Madison Bumgarner's velocity today?

Mar 03, 2010 20:09 PM
rating: 1
 
duffke

KLaw said it was 87-88 in the second inning today.

Mar 03, 2010 22:29 PM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

This isn't meant as a criticism - I am absolutely awed by Kevin's work - just an interesting irony . . .

Based on my casual observation of the progress and statistical levels achieved by minor leaguers, the two most surprisingly high ranks in this top 20 are both first-basemen: Carter and Smoak. Yet, Kevin is apparently perceived as being extraordinarily tough on first-base prospects.

Mar 04, 2010 07:33 AM
rating: 0
 
mymrbig

Kevin, you should "update" this list on April 1st. Make no changes to the list with the sole exception of dropping Logan Morrison off the list and replace him with whomever his roommate is. That would be fun.

Mar 05, 2010 07:42 AM
rating: 3
 
mymrbig

To those giving me a negative rating, this was a joke. Logan Morrison was all over KG via Twitter about ranking him #50, so I was suggesting this as an April Fool's joke aimed back at Logan.

Mar 09, 2010 07:36 AM
rating: 0
 
KHolmes

The Yanks turned two guys on the list (#45 and 49) into regulars - the above seems harsh about their system.

Mar 08, 2010 19:25 PM
rating: -1
 
JC

Am I missing something... why is Chris Sale MIA here?

Mar 13, 2011 13:08 PM
rating: 0
 
JC

nevermind :)

Mar 13, 2011 13:13 PM
rating: 0
 
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