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November 30, 2009

So You Need

OBP

by Christina Kahrl

We like to talk about how OBP is life, life is OBP, yadda yadda yadda, right? Well, who are the real answers for those clubs looking for OBP-related help in their lineups? Some of these are obvious, some less so, and some are being touted as solutions but may not be quite the right answer. Taking a cue from Mr. Jaffe earlier in this series, let's start off with a table that breaks these into two categories, the guys who can play positions, and the ones who really shouldn't, who you might want to pick the phone and ask after if you're willing to swing a deal, and finally the already-signed Official OBP Hero of 2009, Bobby Abreu (props to Tony Reagins and company for cutting to the chase). Then, we'll work down into the individual cases and their respective or putative merits.

                  2010                  2009 UBBr
Dude          Pos  Age   PA   OBP   EqA   + HBPr   2008?
Nick Johnson   1B   31  574  .426  .301   .186     .224
Craig Counsell 2B   39  459  .357  .275   .105     .166
Felipe Lopez   2B   30  680  .383  .284   .101     .083
Chone Figgins  3B   32  729  .395  .277   .140     .119
Marco Scutaro  SS   34  680  .379  .279   .138     .105
Coco Crisp     CF   30  215  .336  .255   .135     .088
Mike Cameron   CF   37  628  .342  .281   .121     .116
Jason Bay      LF   31  638  .384  .299   .155     .121
Johnny Damon   LF   36  626  .365  .292   .115     .104
Gregg Zaun      C   39  296  .345  .257   .115     .132
Eric Hinske    4C   32  224  .348  .273   .138     .106
Jim Thome      DH   39  434  .366  .280   .152     .143
Hideki Matsui  DH   36  528  .367  .293   .127     .093
Gary Sheffield DH   41  312  .372  .292   .125     .124
Dan Uggla      2B   30  668  .354  .280   .142     .128
Brad Hawpe     RF   31  588  .384  .296   .129     .128
Milton Bradley OF   32  473  .378  .271   .154     .149
Bobby Abreu    OF   36  667  .390  .286   .132     .105

With a couple of noteworthy exceptions,* these are the top free agents in the admittedly abstract unintentional walk rate plus HBP rate in 2009, with a reminder of what their rates were in 2008. I take all that as more than a little interesting, given that these aren't just a generally old group of players, but also one with a lot of combustibility. Johnson, Figgins, and Crisp have all missed significant time to injury, which might lower their base compensation rates, for example. That might make them more attractive, and it might not, but for the savvy OBP shopper, it might also suggest some creative playing time-driven deals for Johnson and Crisp—Figgins is probably in great shape, given his leadoff man's rep.

First off, Johnson's the obvious "best of class" prize-winner. Add in that he's not a butcher around the bag, and unburdened with a rep as an RBI guy, and he becomes that odd Eddie Yost-style solution for a team that needs baserunners, an OBP contributor at a corner you can stick up in the second slot of an order, allowing you to stop farting around with slappy middle infielders giving play-by-play announcers too many opportunities to go through the motions talking about productive outs. A walk moves runners up quite nicely, after all. Among the more ambitious clubs, the Mets, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Giants could certainly use him, but he'd also help the Yankees, Rangers, or White Sox as a DH.

Considering the choices of F-Lop and Craig Counsell, it's interesting how quickly some seem to have forgotten Lopez's wild inconsistencies in performance. Getting into a funk as a National might seem forgiveable, but it's not exactly to his credit, and the vagaries of his performance hasn't been a question of his position—Lopez's carer walk rate at second is lower than when he was tasked with playing short. I guess I see inconsistency, a lofty line-drive rate in '09, and the virtues of playing in a bandbox for a good chunk of the season, and take all that as cause to moderate my enthusiasm for him. If it's a low-end deal, a year-plus-option deal, that works, but a peek into the periscope says, "thar be dragons." Similarly, Counsell's age suggests a middling sort of offer for a middling sort of solution—he's valuable, but for how much longer?

I've taken flak in the past for piping up for Figgins—apparently my anticipating a better 2009 from him over Adrian Beltre was controversial in some circles—but his rate of reaching base via freebies or taking one for the team seems to be a relatively stable asset, no differently than his consistently above-average BABIPs or line-drive rates. A reflexive assertion on the subject of regression is all well and good, but Figgins has been better than league-average in all of these things, and there comes a point in time to accept that this is part of his skill set. Is he worth an eight-figure-per-annum deal? I'm glad that isn't a question I have to answer, because the market for known quanitities atop the order isn't cheap, and Figgins has lost chunks of the 2007 and 2008 seasons to injury. However, add in his virtues as a third baseman, and he makes for a fine fit—at a price.