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November 25, 2009

So You Need

Firemen

by Jay Jaffe

As an understanding of advanced metrics has taken hold in major-league front offices, the market for free-agent relievers has shrunk considerably, even allowing for the harsh economic climate of the past two winters. Teams that were once willing to shell out multi-year contracts for closers and top set-up men are increasingly shying away from such deals, realizing that reliever performances are fairly volatile from year to year due to sample sizes (to say nothing of injuries), that free-agent compensation rules disproportionately penalize teams for signing relievers, and that they can do just about as well by hunting for bargains or giving opportunities to their own youngsters.

Consider this data from the past three winters compiled via ESPN's Free Agent Tracker:

Year  Guar Years  Avg $ per  Avg Years   1   2   3   4
2007   36   55    $3.34 mil    1.53     24   6   5   1
2008   28   43    $5.12 mil    1.54     19   5   2   2
2009   32   44    $3.83 mil    1.38     22   8   2   0

All years refer to the seasons for which the contracts took effect, which differs from the Tracker's view of attaching the numbers to the season just past; this makes more sense, I think. The number of relievers who were guaranteed contracts (Guar) rose slightly from 2008 to 2009, but the average length declined by 10 percent and the average guaranteed salary fell by 25 percent. Furthermore, where 15 percent of reliever contracts in 2007 and 2008 were for more than two years, just six percent of the ones signed for 2009 were.

Among the current crop of free-agent firemen, there's a considerable chasm between the top six and the rest of the field, as injuries, platoon issues, and lower strikeout rates make it much harder to distinguish which pitchers are worthy investments. Given the volatility of single-season sample sizes, all data presented in the table below is for 2007 through 2009, all bases on balls rates have been adjusted to exclude intentional walks, and all batted ball rates both in the table and elsewhere in the piece refer to the MLB Advanced Media data we use for our sortables; you'll see different numbers on FanGraphs, Hardball Times, and elsewhere. Asterisks denote left-handers:

Rk   Pitcher              IP      ERA    K/9  BB/9  HR/9  K/BB    GB%   QERA   FRA_r  WXRL
 1   Billy Wagner*       131.0   2.40   10.9   2.5   0.8   4.4   38.7%  2.94   3.28    5.5
 2   Rafael Betancourt   206.1   3.05    8.9   1.8   0.8   5.0   30.7%  3.58   3.12    9.3
 3   Rafael Soriano      161.2   2.95   10.5   2.4   1.1   4.4   32.5%  3.22   3.07    7.8
 4   Jose Valverde       190.1   2.84   10.3   2.9   1.0   3.5   38.9%  3.39   2.94   10.0
 5   Darren Oliver*      209.1   3.10    7.1   2.1   0.6   3.4   47.6%  4.01   3.47    6.2
 6   Mike Gonzalez*      125.0   2.81   10.6   3.2   0.9   3.3   38.5%  3.61   3.56    4.8
 7   Brandon Lyon        212.0   3.31    6.0   2.3   0.7   2.6   44.5%  4.92   3.67    7.6
 8   LaTroy Hawkins      180.2   3.14    6.1   2.3   0.8   2.6   52.2%  4.28   3.19    3.2
10   Brian Shouse*       127.0   3.26    5.8   1.6   0.7   3.6   60.4%  4.10   3.57    2.7
     Chan Ho Park        182.2   4.14    7.7   3.0   0.9   2.6   49.1%  4.18   3.49    3.0
     Octavio Dotel       160.0   3.66   11.7   3.9   1.3   3.0   36.8%  3.48   4.52    3.3
     Fernando Rodney     166.2   4.48    8.9   4.5   0.9   2.0   52.2%  4.33   4.74    4.8
     J.J. Putz           147.1   2.93    9.6   3.3   0.7   2.9   43.4%  3.63   2.91    7.3
     Russ Springer       173.1   2.86    8.8   2.6   0.8   3.4   28.3%  3.97   3.09    2.4

1. Billy Wagner: Even at 37 years old and coming off Tommy John surgery, and pitching primarily in a lower-leverage role (0.98 LEV) in the AL East, Billy Wags blew hitters away during his late-season return. He struck out 26 in 152/3 innings, and while his eight walks rate as a concern, his command was impressive for a guy who returned to the majors a few weeks shy of one year removed from surgery. Wagner's average fastball velocity (94.2 mph) was just a hair removed from his pre-surgical seasons (94.5), and batters were utterly baffled, hitting just .154/.279/.269 against him. The audition was enough to show that Wagner's certainly capable of returning to closing, and his upside relative to the rest of this free agent class is undeniable. The major questions come down to money and his Type A status. The Red Sox already turned down an $8 million option on his services; if they offer arbitration and he declines it, he'll cost a draft pick in addition to the big dollars—closer money—he's likely to seek. Via that route, he may make more sense for a team protected from losing its first-round choice by placing in the top 15, a rule of thumb that applies to most of the Type A's here.