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November 25, 2009

Prospectus Today

Pen Men Free Agents Review

by Joe Sheehan

Before we get to the relievers, I want to comment on Jamey Carroll, who I inadvertently sorted into the relief pitchers during this process.

Jamey Carroll: Utility infielders who can't play shortstop usually have short shelf lives. Carroll survives by being a better offensive player than the field, and he has the scrappy sheen that gets you two-year deals where one is more appropriate. The steady rise in his strikeout rate will likely chew up his OBP during his next deal, making it his last. He'll be pursued by a bunch of teams looking for "stability" at second base.

I've ordered the relievers the same way I ordered players in the first three pieces in this series. With that said, variance really swamps the difference between any couple of places here, so don't get too caught up in one guy being listed above another. Have a happy Thanksgiving!

Relief Pitchers

Billy Wagner: Wagner was a little wild but otherwise dominant in coming back from Tommy John surgery. Despite the lost year, he's arguably the best reliever on the market, given his end-year performance and the fact that the other guys all have spotty health records. The Red Sox did him a favor by not picking up his $8 million option, as he'll do better than that on the market, most likely getting a two-year deal. Wagner may have to choose between setting up for a good team or closing for a bad one, however.

Chan Ho Park: Ignore the overall numbers. As a reliever the past two seasons, Park has 101 strikeouts and 37 unintentional walks in 120⅓ innings. Split the difference on his homers (10 in '08, none in '09) and project him as 70 innings of effective relief in a package that gets both lefties and righties out. He's worth at least a one-year deal, and I'd go to two if necessary.