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November 24, 2009

So You Need

Starting Pitching

by Eric Seidman

If this year's free-agent crop of starting pitchers were a graduating high school class, their prom theme would have to be "Risk and Reward." Having passed the November 20^th commencement ceremony, after which members of the class can be hired by prospective employers, one market aspect has become increasingly clear. Aside from valedictorian John Lackey, the student body consists of one of two types: either the troublemaker with the potential to achieve, or the consistent yet unnoticed pupil whose lack of flakiness tends to overrate his attributes in relation to the former archetype. Essentially, teams are going to dole out lucrative contracts to mid-pack starters, else they decide to diversify their risk amongst those voted "most likely to spend time on the disabled list," signing a couple to incentive-laden contracts in the hopes that at least one will pan out and reach his potential.

While the market saw a glut in the corner outfield spots last season, teams with free-agent wish lists currently in the works will need to decide how much value should be placed on pitchers whose performance evaluations are preceded by everyone's favorite "if he stays healthy" caveat. With a multitude of names, however, the risk is unlikely to come at as much of a premium as it would in a less congested year. The above characteristics render this an important offseason as certain deals, based on various combinations of risk and reward, may serve as precedents for future signings. The pitchers below basically fall into two sections—injury prone or not—and will be segregated as such, with the top five in each category ranked. Combining everyone would be less accurate given the necessity for homemade health probabilities and the sheer number of injury-prone pitchers.

The relatively healthy bunch:

1. John Lackey: Lackey stands alone as the best of the best, a relatively young righty who carries significantly less risk than the other high-upside hurlers, virtually meriting his own category heading in the process. His career thus far has been interesting, in that he has never posted one of those sparkling sub-3.00 ERAs, and playing in a league that a majority of fans fail to realize is significantly tougher than the senior circuit, he lacks that ace aura in spite of being very good for a long time. It may take an extended trip to the National League before he is taken more seriously as a legitimate award contender and top-tier tosser, but a hefty payday is coming his way with teams realizing exactly what he brings to the table. Because his medical history isn't spotless and his stuff is not as capable of dominating the opposition as a Sabathia's, it is hard to fathom Lackey receiving more than the contractual commitment and dollar amount inked by A.J. Burnett last season, but he will undoubtedly provide more bang for the buck.

2. Randy Wolf: Yes, Wolf had Tommy John Surgery a few years ago, but he appears to have recovered. His seasonal earned run averages since 2002 follow what appears to be a normal distribution, with the mark rising from solid to replacement level and descending back down to Solidville, ERA. By 2009 data alone, he rates as the best pitcher of this entire crop on both a rate and raw tally basis, with a 6.1 SNLVAR and 3.47 FRA to go along with a second-best .565 SNWP. Of course, he is not the best pitcher of this bunch and has benefited from spacious home parks over the last three seasons, which doesn't make him a poor pitcher, but should garner skepticism at the idea that he might finally be fulfilling his potential as a perennial All-Star. A short-armed and deceptive delivery adds to his perceived velocity, which helps keep hitters off balance and goes a long way towards explaining how seemingly average movement with substandard velocity could have routinely retired hitters. It is reasonable to assume that Wolf could sustain a league-average performance at worst over the next few seasons, but his stellar 2009 is more than likely to lead to a few suitors offering more lucrative than merited deals, only to eventually receive decent, not overwhelming, results. Think Oliver Perez in terms of years and money, but add in actual pitching talent and utility.