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November 24, 2009

Prospectus Today

Starting Pitcher Free Agents Review

by Joe Sheehan

There are very few good buys among the available starting pitchers. As with the first two pieces in this series, these pitchers are sorted by the chance that they'll return value on the contract they can be expected to sign.

Starting Pitchers

John Lackey: The best starting pitcher in this year's field, Lackey gets dinged for minor injuries that cost him starts in both of the last two seasons and combine to create unimpressive counting stat lines and concerns about his durability. He's never been a top-tier starter, occupying instead that level right below the best ones, showing good peripherals and run prevention without ever being a threat to dominate. Lackey bounced back in each of the past two years to pitch effectively and took all his starts once opening his campaign. He's a reasonable bet to continue to be above-average, just not a star, and he fits better as a second starter behind a stud. The Mets have to be in on him, and the Dodgers should be if they can focus. Sixteen months ago, I was in Arlington for the Jamey Newberg ballpark event and they were already thinking about the native Texan. I think the Mets end up with him.

Andy Pettitte: One of last year's best free-agent signings, Pettitte hits the market again coming off a slightly worse season, and once again seems to be choosing between one team—the Yankees—and retirement. It would be interesting if a league-average starter walked away from the team for the second straight offseason. Pettitte retains 85 percent of his peak skill set and would be worth a two-year deal if that's what was necessary to sign him. Older pitchers have been something of a value pool in the last decade, available at relative discount to those in their early thirties.

Brett Myers: A full complement of injuries (hip, shoulder, eye) limited Myers to 702/3 innings in his walk year. He's willing to start or relieve—a lost season makes players much more pliable, don't you think?—and it's not clear which role makes him the most valuable. In any case, he's worth a guaranteed contract pending a physical, and has plenty of career left.