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November 2, 2009 Prospectus TodayA-Rodemption?
Maybe this will be the stake in the heart, the straw that breaks the camel’s back, the end of an era. Maybe the RBI double that tore up a thousand game stories will wreak its havoc on millions more to come. Maybe, just maybe, Alex Rodriguez did not only himself a favor, but did one for hundreds upon hundreds of baseball players to follow him. With a late-night, two-out line drive to left field, Rodriguez broke a ninth-inning tie in Game Four of the World Series. His overall statistics in the Series remain poor—.143/.333/.429—but he’s made his hits count, with a two-run home run that turned Game Three around and his game-winning double last night. The overall postseason line remains staggering, .348/.483/.804 with six home runs. It’s not just that he’s put up statistics; Rodriguez has had big hit after big hit in this postseason, so many that there’s no longer any way to argue that he has some ineffable quality that makes him a great player for six months and a poor one after that. He is a great player all the time. This has always been obvious to anyone willing to take a reasoned look at Rodriguez’s work in the playoffs or, for that matter, to anyone sensible enough to understand baseball’s complexity. We can train all the cameras we want on a playoff game, but it’s still baseball. Failure is more common than success, at least for hitters. Outcomes swing wildly over the span of a few games, and just as players do in the regular season, they have good stretches and bad in the postseason. Few get enough opportunities for their postseason statistics to acquire significance, so we inflate or deflate the reputations of some based on tiny amounts of evidence; not enough evidence, just data, data that doesn’t carry nearly enough weight for the conclusions reached from it. Sometimes, and this is the insidious part, data gets carved up to reach preconceived notions. Both contributed to the narrative of Alex Rodriguez. Through October 16, 2004, Rodriguez had played in 22 postseason games, stretching back to some cameos with the 1995 Mariners and through Game Three of the 2004 ALCS. In those games, he batted 94 times, hitting .372/.419/.640. This included a monster series in the 2000 ALCS against the Yankees, and a carry-the-team performance, clutch hits included in the 2004 ALDS against the Twins. In his next 15 postseason games, from the Yankees’ collapse in the ALCS that year through the first two games of the 2007 Division Series, Rodriguez batted 67 times and was awful: .096/.299/.173. Most famously, he was 1-for-14 against the Tigers in the 2006 Division Series and was dropped by Joe Torre to the eighth slot in the batting order for the fourth game. It was in this period that the legend of Rodriguez was formed but, in fact, that legend was the product of variance and viciousness. His performance, while terrible, and was out of context not just with his career, but his postseason career. To decide that Alex Rodriguez had a fatal flaw, you had to ignore 60 percent of his postseason plate appearances, including a series-dominating performance in 2004 against the Twins. You had to want it. By the end of that second stretch, Rodriguez had 161 career plate appearances, about a quarter of a season, and a line of .268/.369/.464. That’s below his career numbers, of course, but given top postseason competition well within a reasonable range of performance.
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I think Manuel's mistake in putting in Lidge for Madson was waaaaay worse than what Girardi did. Madson is the Phillies' best reliever, Lidge their worst, and the pitchers' spot was leading off the next inning. If Manuel hadn't used Madson to preserve a two-run deficit the night before, he could have kept him in for two innings, and arguably should have anyway. The difference between Madson and Lidge this year is much larger than the difference between Chamberlain and Hughes.