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October 27, 2009

World Series Prospectus

Four Keys

by Baseball Prospectus

Philadelphia Phillies

1. Do Not Overestimate Brad Lidge

Charlie Manuel was criticized for much of the regular season for his reliance upon Brad Lidge in spite of the closer’s horrid season. When the playoffs rolled around, Manuel broke from this mold and began to manage heavily based on matchups—if a lefty hitter was scheduled to lead off an inning, Scott Eyre would toe the rubber late. Perhaps Lidge would then enter the game when a righty stepped to the plate, but the Phils’ skipper exhibited an understanding—even if it was directly related to Lidge’s struggles—that matchups matter just as much in the final frame as they do in the seventh inning. Over the last several games, Lidge has escaped the ninth inning without allowing a run, racking up three saves without one blown, but this does not mean he has pitched particularly well. Sure, he has looked better than he did in the regular season, but it would be difficult to look any worse, and Charlie Manuel cannot suddenly cease utilizing his bullpen in a matchup-based capacity because Lidge struck out Mark Loretta and induced a Ronnie Belliard fly out. Lidge might be his guy to record the final out of the game, but any platoon advantages the Phillies can gain with Happ or Eyre on the mound must be exploited.

2. Run on Jorge

One of the huge advantages for the Angels entering the ALCS was their ability to run. Despite a poor success rate of stealing bases, it made sense that playing several games with the weak-armed Jorge Posada behind the plate could help their chances. They failed to take advantage—you can't steal first base—but it's a spot the Phillies must use to their fullest capacity in this series. The 2007-09 Phillies are the most efficient base-stealing team in major league history—thanks in particular to first-base coach Davey Lopes—and now is no time to stop. Rollins, Werth, Utley, and Victorino all stole more than 20 bases this season, Ben Francisco swiped 14 bags as an Indian and Phillie, and Ryan Howard even added eight of his own. Andy Pettitte and his dynamite pick-off move could throw a wrench in these plans, but the Phillies need to remain aggressive and continue to play the type of baseball they played to get here.