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October 26, 2009

Future Shock

Monday Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein

At this time of year, my inbox is flooded with questions about hot starts in Arizona and whether or not it's 'real.' Real is a relative term, of course. The first thing anyone should recognize is that we still have just eleven games in the books, so pretty much nothing is real. The second is that the league favors offense to a ridiculous extent; after those 11 games, the circuit is batting .299/.381/.480 as a whole. So let's face it, none of this is real, as the AFL record book is littered with the names of guys like Scott Pose, Tagg Bozied, and Ken Harvey. It's one of those reasons I'm glad to have scouts there—they'll tell you what's real.

Matt Angle, OF, Orioles (AFL: Phoenix)
As long as one understands what Angle cannot do, it makes one more appreciative of what he's capable of. A seventh-round pick in 2007, Angle is a true old-school leadoff hitter who works the count well, sprays line drives all over the place, runs well, and plays a solid center field. What he doesn't do is hit for power or blow anyone away with his tools. He is 13-for-25 in his last five games, and batting .406/.486/.500 overall with 11 runs and six stolen bases. Angle has a reputation as a future fourth outfielder, but don't be surprised if he ends up as a second-division starter.

Aroldis Chapman, LHP, No Team
The big story this week Chapman's arrival in the United States, as he's ready to begin the process of joining Major League Baseball. He arrived with both his agent and a huge price tag, one that has already had many teams saying they're out of the running. On a scouting level, he's nearly unprecedented as a 21-year-old southpaw with size, projection, and a fastball that already rests comfortably in the upper 90s, but beyond that, there are nagging concerns, as the mental adjustment for Cubans is often unpredictable, and scouts have had little opportunity to see him pitch live against top-notch competition. While he's already met with several teams, the Yankees are the overwhelming favorite to land him, as they have the cash, and Chapman seems to want to play on the biggest stage possible. Perhaps the rich will get richer, because nobody can afford to risk more than the Yankees.

Jordan Danks, CF, White Sox (AFL: Peoria Javelinas)
Danks was one of the talks of the Carolina League during the first month of the year when he hit .322/.409/.525 for High-A Winston-Salem, but the second half of the season dimmed his star a bit, as his numbers dropped to .243/.337/.356 at Double-A Birmingham. He remains an impressive physical specimen, but if you take into account his entire playing career, including his high school and college play, more often than not he's been a bit of a disappointment. A .424/.513/.697 showing in Arizona is helping spruce his prospect rep back up a bit, but he's still 23 and just getting his first taste of success against upper-level competition. Even scouts who really like him don't project him as a star.

Gorkys Hernandez, CF, Pirates (VEN: Anzoategui)
Hernandez has fallen off of a lot of radars of late, and that might be because of a poor showing following his mid-season trade to the Pirates, when he hit just .262/.312/.340 in 86 games for Double-A Altoona. While he's not an elite-level prospect, he's still a damn good one, and he's still in possession of the kind of tools that could break through at any time. One of the best defensive center fielders in the minors, Hernandez's bat has suddenly come alone for the Caribes, as he's batting .343/.465/.400 in nine games. While it's a tiny sample size, he's seemingly showing a much more patient approach, taking seven walks.