Prospectus Today: The ... (10/15)
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October 15, 2009 Playoff ProspectusDodgers vs. Phillies LCS
It's déjà vû all over again. For the second year in a row, the Phillies and Dodgers face off in the National League Championship Series. Last year, Charlie Manuel's club beat Joe Torre and company in five games en route to their first World Championship in 28 years, with the series turning on Matt Stairs' pinch homer off of Jonathan Broxton in the eighth inning of Game Four. This time, the Dodgers have the home-field advantage, having compiled the best record in the league and then swept the Cardinals in the first round in convincing fashion, shaking out of a brief slump which saw them lose a season-high five straight games between clinching a spot in the playoffs on September 26 and wrapping up the NL West flag on October 3. The Phillies shook off a late-season slump of their own to squeak by the Rockies in four games during their first-round matchup. These two powerhouses had the league's best run differentials (+169 for the Dodgers, +111 for the Phils). Both teams return to the NLCS after having held first place in their respective divisions for the majority of the season. The Dodgers held sole possession of first place from April 19 onward, the Phils regained first place for good on May 30. Yet both teams' presences here required their manager to navigate around injuries (Jamie Moyer, Brett Myers, Hiroki Kuroda), suspensions (Manny Ramirez, J.C. Romero), and alarming slumps (Brad Lidge, Russell Martin), and general managers to fortify their playoff-bound clubs with significant late-season upgrades, whether at a substantial cost of prospects (Philly's acquisition of Cliff Lee) or through astute use of the waiver wire (LA's pickups of Vicente Padilla and Ronnie Belliard). Adding color to what's sure to be another a competitive series, the Phillies/Dodgers matchup remains steeped in LCS history. The two teams battled three times for the NL pennant from 1977 to 1983, with the Dodgers taking the first two series in memorable and sometimes bizarre fashion, and the Phils getting the last laugh in 1983. Echoes of those matchups reverberate from the coaching boxes, with former Phillies pepperpot Larry Bowa coaching third base for the Dodgers in his inimitably aggressive style, and former Dodgers base thief extraordinaire Davey Lopes schooling the Phils in the fine art of baserunning as the Phillies' first-base coach. More recently, Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino was astutely plucked from the Dodgers' system via the Rule 5 draft in 2004, right fielder Jayson Werth spent three years in LA before landing in Philadelphia, righty Chan Ho Park served two stints with the Dodgers before becoming a Philly, and righty Pedro Martinez began his career as a reliever whom Tommy Lasorda (himself a Pennsylvania native and 1945 Phillies free-agent signing) deemed too small to withstand the rigors of starting pitching. Dodgers Padilla and Randy Wolf spent the first half of this decade as mainstays of the Phillies' rotation under Bowa, and pinch hitter Jim Thome spent three years as their first baseman before yielding to a young slugger named Ryan Howard. In terms of more recent history, the Dodgers took the season series 4-3, beating the Phils two times out of three at Citizens Bank Park in mid-May, then splitting four games at Dodgers Stadium in early June. Lineups Dodgers AVG/ OBP/ SLG EqA VORP SS-S Rafael Furcal .269/.335/.375 .257 18.4 CF-R Matt Kemp .297/.352/.490 .298 49.6 RF-L Andre Ethier .272/.361/.508 .300 38.4 LF-R Manny Ramirez .290/.418/.531 .327 38.5 1B-L James Loney .281/.357/.399 .272 9.7 3B-R Casey Blake .280/.363/.468 .293 31.6 2B-R Ronnie Belliard .277/.325/.451 .274 11.2* C-R Russell Martin .250/.352/.329 .251 7.5 Phillies AVG/ OBP/ SLG EqA VORP SS-S Jimmy Rollins .250/.296/.423 .251 19.7 CF-S Shane Victorino .292/.358/.445 .281 38.3 2B-L Chase Utley .282/.397/.508 .315 62.2 1B-L Ryan Howard .279/.360/.571 .308 48.3 RF-R Jayson Werth .268/.373/.506 .301 43.3 LF-L Raul Ibañez .272/.347/.552 .298 38.9 3B-R Pedro Feliz .266/.308/.366 .240 4.0 C-R Carlos Ruiz .255/.355/.425 .270 15.8 * Full-season statistics
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
At least we agree on the number of games,not the winning team. Should be a good series. One interesting note is the weather forecast in Philadelphia is rain for the next four days. Can Charlie Manuel get lucky again and get a rainout and have Hamels start games 1 and 4 and not have to go with a 4th starter? Sometimes better lucky than good.