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October 14, 2009 On the BeatClosing Confidence Tests
The most automatic managerial decision in today's game is to bring the closer in to pitch the ninth inning with a lead of three runs or less. That is certainly the strategy Yankees manager Joe Girardi and Angels manager Mike Scioscia will employ in the American League Championship Series and what Dodgers manager Joe Torre will do against the Phillies in the National League Championship Series. When there is a save situation in the ninth inning, they will signal for their closers. Girardi and Torre certainly can't be faulted for thinking that way. Girardi can summon Mariano Rivera, whose 6.149 WXRL led the major leagues this season. Torre has Jonathan Broxton, who was fifth at 5.032. You might question whether Scioscia should automatically go to Brian Fuentes, as the lefty was just 37th with 2.449 WXRL. Fuentes is second in WXRL among Angels left-handed relievers, as Darren Oliver had a 2.679 mark. However, Scioscia showed in the regular season that he is not afraid to call on Kevin Jepsen in the ninth if the situation dictates the use of a right-hander, although Scioscia only used Fuentes in save situations during the Angels' sweep of the Red Sox in the American League Division Series. When the Phillies have a lead of three runs or less in the ninth, the decision is not so easy for Charlie Manuel. While Brad Lidge got the save in the final two victories of their win over the Rockies in the National League Division Series, Manuel showed he is willing to consider different options. Left-hander Scott Eyre got the final two outs of the ninth inning in the decisive Game Four before Lidge struck out Troy Tulowitzki to close out the 5-4 victory. Manuel also showed during the regular season that he won't necessarily bring in Lidge in save opportunities. In a 5-3 victory over the Nationals on September 8 at Nationals Park, Manuel pulled Lidge with one out in the ninth, the bases loaded, and the Phillies clinging to a two-run lead. Ryan Madson closed that game out and was the closest thing the Phillies had to a closer for the rest of the season. Manuel is admittedly not a numbers guy and the Phillies have the only front office that does not employ a statistical analysis. However, you don't have to be Nate Silver to know Lidge has had a horrible year. The conventional statistics say that, as his 11 blown saves in the regular season led the major leagues. BP's advanced metrics confirm, as Lidge's -3.257 was easily the worst in the majors, more than doubling the second-least-effective reliever on the list, the Royals' Kyle Farnsworth (-1.562). Madson's 2.354 WXRL led the Phillies in the regular season. However, he blew both save opportunities against the Rockies and Manuel decided to go back to Lidge, hoping he was on the verge of recapturing his 2008 magic. Lidge was a combined 44-for-44 in save opportunities between the regular season and postseason as the Phillies won the World Series and also led the majors with 7.612 WXRL. Manuel figures to go to Lidge as he closer in the National League Championship Series against the Dodgers that begins Thursday night, primarily because the manager feels the right-hander has the hot hand following some self-introspection. "Actually, about the last three times he's been out there, I think he's been good," Manuel said. "Also, sometime when you have a decent outing and then you take a break, I think that can be good for you and it has been for him. It gave him time to sit there and think. He is his best coach. I used to tell my hitters that all the time [when he was the Indians' hitting coach]: 'You're your best hitting instructor. You've got to learn yourself and know thyself.' It's the same for a pitcher. You have to study everything about yourself, what you've got and how you get people out. Lidge has been more relaxed and it's just a matter of time until he gets his confidence back. His stuff is still there. He's been a tremendous pitcher. Believe me, he'll still be as good as he ever was."
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Minor quibble re Fuentes. In game 2, Jepsen started the 9th to throw to Martinez and Youkilis. After the latter doubled, Fuentes was called on for Ortiz (a natural switch at that moment that probably would have been made regardless of Youkilis' hit), Bay, and Lowell.