Last night's post-game shows on TBS and MLB featured a total of nine "analysts" grouped around two tables. NOT ONE of them questioned Tracy's non-use of Beimel against Howard.

Now you know why I read Baseball Prospectus.

"He wasn't able to complete the game, and because it all went bad when he left, we got a glimpse of just how big the gap is for the Phillies between the guys who start and the guys who come in later. "

Really? These editorial comments just make me roll my eyes. Lee came out with 2 men on base and the Phillies best reliever, one of the best in the league came in. He was the only one to allow any runs. The other "guys who come in later" didn't allow one run. The Phillies bullpen ERA was 14th in the league, more than a half run higher than the Rockies.

If you want to say that he gap between Lee and ANY releiver is huge, you'd be on money. But making that comment focusing on the Phillies pen when their best guy came in and the other two guys didn't allow a run is ridiculously biased interpretation.

I thought Cliff Lee finally figured out Carlos Gonzalez in their last encounter... first pitch at chin, second pitch at outside corner, repeat. And I haven't seen him hit a decent curveball either.

Hey guys.

Did I miss Sheehan's article about the other division series's, is it still forthcoming or did it get scrapped?

Should be interesting to see how Joe Torre sets his rotation. Will he go with this?:

Wolf, Kershaw, Padilla, Kuroda, Wolf, Kershaw, Padilla - Vicente Padilla in a deciding Game 7 against Ryan Howard and Chase Utley?

or this?:

Wolf, Kershaw, Padilla, Wolf, Kuroda, Kershaw, Wolf

Can't wait to read BP's take on this series.

Wolf has murdered the Phillies everytime I've seen him pitch against them. It just seems like the Phillies don't like medium speed/breaking ball lefties. That's completely from memory and with no stats to back it up, haha.

Tracy may have been "playing the percentages" a la Monty Burns in the sense that Howard is 3 for 10 with a double, triple, homer, and 3 walks against Beimel (.300/.462/.900).
If he doesn't understand sample size, he may have genuinely thought he had a favorable matchup with Street in there.

Joe - agree with you 100% on last night and every time you make this point. "There's one absolute when you face the Phillies—don't let Ryan Howard face a right-handed pitcher in any kind of game-critical situation."

Let's play this out with your favorite team in a perfectly realistic situation - one that Joe Girardi may have this month...what if it is the most game critical situation and what if that right hander is Mariano Rivera?

Top 9th. No Outs. Game 7 of the WS. Yankees 5 - Phillies 4. Bases Loaded. Ryan Howard up. Mariano Rivera on the mound. Mo has pitched to one batter and gave up a broken-bat infield hit on an 0-2 count. Only pitchers left in the bullpen are Chad Gaudin, Damaso Marte and Phil Coke. (Given the stakes and situation all other starters/relievers are burned).

Rivera actually has a tiny reverse-split. (OPS of .586 against RHB, .511 against LHB).

What do you do?

If you leave him in, does your opinion change if you have better options than Gaudin still available?

I leave Mo in. And, I probably leave him in in all cases, unless I have Phil Hughes still available.

Anyone else?

Fair point - Shaun - I should have made my question more explicit.

Assume your only goal is to win this single game.

Not a realistic scenario. If the Yankees are winning 5-4 in the 9th, Mariano's coming in at the beginning of the inning.

Rivera's about 70 points of OPS better against LHP than RHP. That's comparable how to Howard's 400 point platoon differential?

Surprised no one mentioned what I thought was Tracy's failure before the obvious Street/Beimel fiasco, which was not leaving Betancourt in to start the 9th. That would have left him the more palatable (in Tracy's mind) option of bringing in Beimel when Utley/Howard came up without showing up your closer by removing him, not to mention worrying about what would happen if Beimel didn't get Howard out. Completely ridiculous bullpen management all around.

Even setting aside the "let's stick with our closer" idiocy, how do you pitch to Jayson Werth after the game is tied? There are two outs, a runner's in scoring position, first base is open, Werth's had a superb season, he's already got a homer in the game, he's a right-hander when your pitcher on the mound is a guy who specializes in getting lefties out, and thanks to a double-switch, the pitcher's spot is up next! In what reality does it make sense to throw the ball within five feet of him?

After watching this series, I wonder how much the outcome would have changed if Morales had remained as the Rockies closer after Street came off the DL.

If the idea to move Morales to a setup role was to have an extra left-handed reliever, then Tracy should be faulted for not using Morales/Beimel against Howard each time he came up to the plate.

Also, you have to fault Tracy for not using Smith and Iannetta more. Sure, Torrealba got a lot of clutch hits, but if Smith and/or Iannetta had played more, the Rockies might have scored more runs and negated the need for a clutch hit.

Joe, what does the research say about allocating playing time in the play-offs? How should players' performance over the last few years versus this season as a whole versus recent weeks and months be weighed? At what point is a hot streak or slump significant versus when is it chance?

I admit, some Phillies fans here, like me, are irrational. You can't fight the numbers and BP definitely has the numbers on their side. Clearly Joe and the gang ran this series through their heads like, oh, a million times, and the most likely outcome is that the Dodgers win it in 5 or 6. Just check out the post season probabily page to check their work.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/postseasonodds.php

Win DS Win CS Win WS
LAD 100.0000 32.3828 12.8439
PHI 100.0000 67.6172 36.1041

Oh wait, this simulation must have not pitched a lefty against Howard. Let's pretend it doesn't exist...