Baseball Prospectus’ Pre-season Projection: 83-79, third place
Actual record: 91-71, first place
In about half a week, this team went from “perceived to have a good shot to win the NL” to “searching for an identity.” Baseball’s funny like that.
Buster Olney of ESPN.com’s Take
What went wrong: The Cardinals stunned the Cubs and the rest of the NL Central and ran away with the division, but late in the season and in October, opposing teams began taking a different approach in pitching to Matt Holliday-and Holliday’s struggles impacted Albert Pujols, who did not hit a home run in the last 32 days of the Cardinals’ season.
Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: The Cardinals already have significant contractual obligations with Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Adam Wainwright, and others. While they could re-sign Holliday, the left fielder will have to be willing to take less than what he might get on the open market to stay in St. Louis. And any contract talks with Holliday could have a major impact, moving forward, on the forthcoming talks with Pujols-if the Cardinals pay Holliday as much as they pay Pujols, they’ll set a very high market for their first baseman. The Cardinals will learn quickly whether Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan will come back to their staff.
The Baseball Prospectus Take
Absent from the postseason since Tony La Russa piloted a rickety 83-win team all the way to a World Series title in 2006, the Cardinals were ticketed for third place in the NL Central by PECOTA, with a 14.7 percent chance of winning the division and an 8.6 percent chance of taking the Wild Card. Neither their lineup nor their pitching looked particularly imposing, even in the context of playing in a pitcher’s park. Projected for eighth in the league in scoring, the offense appeared to have plenty of power thanks to Pujols’ presence, but it nonetheless looked to be yet another stars-and-scrubs collection. Forecast for ninth in run prevention, the pitching staff had question marks, particularly at the front end, where Wainwright was the only starter whose raw forecast called for more than 100 innings with an ERA below 4.40.
Instead, the Cards won the Central by the largest margin of any NL division champion (7½ games), turning a crowded four-team race into a laugher thanks to Cy Young-caliber seasons from Wainwright and Carpenter, another monster season by Pujols, and some timely in-season upgrades for the offense, most notably the July 24 trade which brought Holliday from Oakland. Holliday hit a searing .353/.419/.604, and the Cardinals had the league’s best record (39-25) after his arrival.-Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus
Key stats: 62 starts, 425
That’s what the Cardinals got from Carpenter and Wainwright, and after the pair combined for just 23 starts last year, it was their performances which were the main reason the Cardinals outdid their PECOTA projection by eight games. After pitching just 21
As strong as those seasons were, it’s worth pointing out that both pitchers may have been helped by pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium III and a weaker than average slate of opposing hitters. Wainwright put up a 2.05 ERA at home, 3.39 on the road; Carpenter faced hitters who were an average of 18 points of OPS worse than the league average, the 15th easiest in the league among NL qualifiers.-Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus
ESPN.com Rumor Central
Trades: One player is 33, coming off hip surgery, and made $32 million in 2009. The other is 29 (more or less), in great health and made $16 million in 2009. Yes, it’s A-Rod and Albert. The “problem” for the Cardinals is that the club has an option on King Albert for 2011, but you better believe they won’t go into that season clueless as to whether they can retain him. A club confident it can sign Pujols for close to A-Rod money (perhaps $24-30 million per season) might offer a monster package. The Cards may be favored to retain if odds were posted today, but at 25-30 percent of total team payroll? A-Rod’s deal might seem utterly ludicrous to most, but in 2011, it’ll make up less than 15 percent of the Yankees‘ payroll.
Buzz: Yeah, yeah. La Russa’s future is unclear. But if Duncan leaves, what does that do to the St. Louis staff, a reclamation project All-Star team? For instance, if Duncan bolts, why would free agent Joel Piniero stay? In fact, you could guess that Duncan’s landing place night become a favorite to land one of his pupils. Need some good news? Well, John Smoltz wants to come back!
Who 2 Watch 4: Allen Craig, LF
One of the more disturbing aspects of the Cardinals’ egg-laying performance in the NLDS is the implications for the team’s future, as St. Louis mortgaged quite a bit of it for this year, trading away five good-to-very-good prospects at the upper levels for Holliday and Mark DeRosa. All five have a chance to contribute at the big league level as early as this coming year, but none of them will be doing it for St. Louis. If Holliday chooses to ply his trade elsewhere, the Cardinals might end up giving Allen Craig the first shot at filling the job in left field. An eighth-round pick in 2006, Craig has received little fanfare, but he’s performed at every level, including a .322/.374/.547 line for Triple-A Memphis in 2009 that included a remarkable second-half, during which he hit .405 with 18 home runs in 195 at-bats.-Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus
Draft recap
Signed: 44 of 50
Spent: Just over $4 million
Hits: Shelby Miller, RHP (19th overall): Miller could have just as easily been the third or fourth overall pick. and ranked as Keith Law’s fifth-best draft prospect. He possesses a mid-90s fastball and potentially plus curve ball with a ceiling as the next great pitching ace to come out of the state of Texas.
Miss: Robert Stock, C (67th overall): If the Cardinals are betting on Stock as a pitcher, they probably could have done better with lefties Jake Eliopoulos or Steven Matz; right-hander Alex Wilson was still available, too.-Jason A. Churchill, ESPN.com
The Bottom Line
With Holliday, DeRosa, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel all free agents, the team will need to find a heavy hitter or two this winter to keep the lineup from feeling like “Albert and the Seven Dwarves” again. As the Cardinals fill their holes, they’ll especially need to emphasize plate discipline, given that Pujols and mid-season acquisition Julio Lugo were the only regulars to walk at least once for every 10 plate appearances. Furthermore, La Russa and Dave Duncan’s possible departure might present real problems for this franchise, given the skill both have shown at squeezing the most out of veteran rosters-and particularly rotations-assembled amid the limitations of a mid-market payroll.-Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider .
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That fact, as well as saying that they would have been better off drafting Jake Eliopoulos, who did not sign after being picked by the Jays not long afterwards, tells me the Churchill section was written quite some time ago.
The author's conclusion was something like a manager can really be worth a game or two a season at best. But most are around zero. Some are under. I forget what La Russa's career number was but I believe it was above zero.
Assuming that's right, wow! Assuming they picked reasonably promising players, I'd think that would really bolster the organization.
I just saw the similar Boston article -- they only signed 26 out of 50.
How does this work? How can both St. Louis and Boston field the same number of teams and (I assume) basically have the same number of minor leaguers when discrepancies like this happen?
Did they pick "reasonably promising players"? I'd love to hear Kevin's view, but I think the consensus is that few of the lower draftees have much upside. Hank, Stock is a very odd case, in that he's a 19-year-old already with significant college experience under his belt. A 19-year-old with a .936 OPS at low-A is an interesting guy. A veteran of two years in a major college program with a .936 OPS at low-A may not be. Stock is both, so what exactly is he capable of? He's one that I'll be watching with particular interest next year.
Never to be forgotten, when looking at that long list of draft signees, is that Albert Pujols was a 13th-round draft pick...
While this statement is true, it's not because the Cards are losing Rick Ankiel (231/285/387) or Troy Glaus (172/250/241 in 32 PA). Seriously, this article is just mailing it in, an all-too-common occurrence in the BP world these days.
Happy?
You're absolutely right that there are "holes" to fill, notably the gaping void at third and a dreadful bench. To get from this to an "all-too-craptastic supporting cast," I'm sorry to say, really does give the impression of mailing it in.
Below are the EqAs of the eight playoff teams not including pitchers (col 1), and also not including their top two hitters (col 2):
EqA/less2
NYY .286/.279 (Rodriguez, Teixeira)
LAN .279/.272 (Ramirez, Kemp)
PHI .279/.268 (Utley, Howard)
COL .271/.262 (Helton, Tulowitzki)
LAA .267/.261 (Morales, Abreu)
BOS .268/.260 (Youkilis, Drew)
STL .272/.254 (Pujols, Holliday)
MIN .265/.252 (Mauer, Morneau)
The point is that the rest of the Cardinals lineup, taken collectively, was subpar this year even given the minor pluses produced by Molina and Ryan. Outside of the expected growth of Rasmus, and maybe a bit from those two (who after all are in the 25-29 range), there isn't much hope for major improvements from the remaining unit. The help is going to have to come from outside, particularly if Holliday departs.
As Jay's comment indicates, the Cardinals' biggest problem is that their offense is not up to par with the rest of the playoff teams, although part of those poor non-Pujols/non-Holliday numbers will have already been solved by subtraction. Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel were horrible offensively for far too many ABs, and neither of them will be back. Basically, but for a 6-week period after acquiring Holliday, the Cardinals' offense was just not very good. With their pitching and the implosion of the Cubs, that six weeks was good enough to win the Central in a walk. Counting on the pitching being that good in 2010 would be a dangerous bet to make. Of course, the Cubs will still be the Cubs. . .
"(L)ate in the season and in October, opposing teams began taking a different approach in pitching to Matt Holliday..."
Different, how so?