Printer-friendly

October 4, 2009

Kiss'Em Goodbye

Cincinnati Reds

by Baseball Prospectus

Baseball Prospectus' Pre-season Projection: 79-83, fourth place
Current record: 77-84, fourth place

Dusty Baker sure wouldn't mind having Barry Bonds at the fourth slot in this lineup.

Buster Olney of ESPN.com's Take

What went wrong: Edinson Volquez appeared poised to lead the Reds' staff into the future, but he lasted just nine starts before requiring reconstructive elbow surgery. This set the tone for the Reds, who hovered around .500 before a total collapse after the All-Star break. Willy Taveras was brought in to make an impact at the top of the Cincinnati lineup; instead, he mustered just a .275 on-base percentage. Jay Bruce missed two months and struggled to get on base in the months that he did play. The Reds had major problems producing runs against left-handed pitching; only six teams had a lower OPS against left-handers than Cincinnati's 712.

Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: Simply put, how do they get better given their budget dynamics? The Reds opened the 2009 season with a payroll of $73 million, and presumably Bob Castellini is not going to go all Steinbrenner and pump in another $20-25 million. The Reds already have enormous obligations to four veterans: Francisco Cordero ($12 million), Aaron Harang ($12.5 million), Bronson Arroyo ($11 million), and Scott Rolen ($11 million). That's $46.5 million to players who are not presently high-impact types, which leaves little wiggle room for the Reds as far as next year's budge. Their best chance for improvement might be in the powerful right arm of Homer Bailey, who had a tremendous year of progress in '09, getting better and better; he went 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in the month of September. Maybe he could be what Volquez was supposed to be. "I think they might be as far away from seriously contending as the Pirates, or maybe even farther," said one scout who watched Cincinnati as it closed out its season.