CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
You Could Look It Up: ... (10/01)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Sele... (09/30)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Do o... (10/04)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Future Shock: Trayvon ... (10/02)

October 1, 2009

Prospectus Today

Bitter Endings

by Joe Sheehan

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

In four seasons as a Brave, Matt Diaz has batted .316, the highest average of anyone on the team not heading to the Hall of Fame. Despite constantly battling for playing time, he has put up .300 averages in three of those four seasons-save last year, when he missed most of the season with injury-and been a productive bat off the bench when not in the lineup.

That's not what Braves fans are going to remember about him, though. On Tuesday night, Diaz hit a critical three-run homer to tie the game at four, breathing life into a team that appeared to have run out of steam after a late-season charge. In the middle of a ninth-inning rally last night, Diaz reached on an error to keep the game, and the season, alive.

They're not going to remember that, either. No, what they're going to remember is Diaz, face down, pounding the dirt with his right fist, left hand futilely gripping third base, as the Marlins ran off the field with a 5-4 win that effectively ended the Braves' season. Diaz was the potential tying run with two outs in the ninth, but he got caught between two plans after Brendan Donnelly bounced a pitch and Ronny Paulino was unable to locate it immediately. Diaz broke for home, hesitated when he couldn't read Paulino's actions, and got hung up too far from third base to make it back safely. Paulino recovered the ball and threw to third for the game-ending out.

I'm fond of saying that it's better to commit to and execute a bad plan than to have no plan at all. That's usually a commentary on front offices-hell, on real life for that matter-but last night, it applied to Diaz, who just couldn't decide, and for that wound up wearing some very big goat horns. It was coincidental that Diaz had been praised just minutes prior for his baserunning by Don Sutton, who approved of Diaz's decision to not go first-to-third on a single by Omar Infante. Seconds later, Diaz was executing what Rob Neyer called "the second biggest baserunning blunder in Braves history."

Diaz's mistake was good for the 27th out in the 158th game, but the Braves aren't falling short of the postseason just because he was indecisive in a key spot. As they did Tuesday, the Braves were put behind by their rotation, and when that happens, they have very little chance to win. A team that lived and died by its starting pitching got back-to-back poor starts from Tim Hudson and Javier Vazquez at the wrong time, and couldn't overcome them. That's been a theme all year long. When they allow four or five runs, a level at which a team should be competitive, the Braves are a brutal 12-28, a .300 winning percentage. The rest of MLB is 495-638, a .437 mark. That .300 percentage is the lowest in the game, and by far the lowest of any contending team. It is the final indictment of the offense, and the reason the Braves' season will end on Sunday.

Of course, lots of teams would have lost to Ricky Nolasco last night. The right-hander has been a disappointment on the whole this year, but he had another of those nights that makes you get excited about him, striking out 16 men in 7 2/3 innings, coming out after 123 pitches despite having a shot at tying the single-game record-to his credit, Fish skipper Fredi Gonzalez was trying to win a baseball game, not play recordball. Nolasco has the build, the repertoire and the movement to be a top-tier starter. Despite a much higher ERA (5.06, versus 3.52) this year, Nolasco had a higher strikeout rate and did so with just a small uptick in his walk rate and while sustaining a K/BB of better than four to one. Some of the ERA jump is due to a BABIP spike, from .278 to .324, which is the result of trading some fly balls for line drives. If you just look at Nolasco since his return from Triple-A in June, you see a number-one starter emerging: 158 strikeouts and 31 walks in 141 1/3 innings, with 15 home runs allowed. That's more or less the pitcher he was a year ago, and more or less the pitcher I would expect him to be in 2010.

It probably wouldn't made a difference in the long run, but the Braves didn't get a whole lot of help from the Brewers, who lost to the Rockies for the second straight night, 10-6. Ken Macha made one utterly ridiculous decision that deserves mention, because while the game meant nothing to the Brewers, you'd still like to see them make every effort to win. Down 5-4 in the top of the sixth, the Brewers had runners on first and second and one out, with Jeff Suppan coming to the plate. Suppan had a 4.96 ERA last year, and a 4.62 ERA the year before that. His ERA was 5.04 coming into the game, and he'd allowed five runs in the first five innings. What I'm saying is that there was no earthly reason to want this guy to keep pitching, because he's just not very good. The 11-inning game Tuesday is an excuse, not a reason: the Brewers had been off Monday and have 11 relievers on their active roster. Even if a couple of those guys are off-limits, there's just no reason at all to let a bad pitcher bat in a game-critical situation just so you can get another crappy inning out of him. It was an embarrassingly bad decision, one that looked worse when Suppan's successful sacrifice failed to lead to any runs, and was followed by three runs for the Rockies in the bottom of the frame.

Despite Jason Kendall's wasted heroics Tuesday night, the Brewers have just been throwing up on themselves in this series. Twice in the first three innings on Tuesday they had the bases loaded with less than two outs, and twice they hit into double plays. Wednesday they hit into a fly-ball double play when Ryan Braun misread a deep drive to left, left the bases loaded thanks in part to letting Suppan bat in the sixth, and left the bases loaded again in the seventh. This is how you end up playing out the string, of course, but as a fan, it would have been nice to a stronger game from the Brewers in the interest of creating some drama this weekend.

Instead, the Rockies not only have clinched a tie for the NL Wild Card, but they've positioned themselves to have a shot at the West division crown if they can sweep the Dodgers in Los Angeles this weekend. While I don't doubt that on some level the players care, I'll point out that in every comparable situation since the three-division format came into being, the managers have acted as if the playoff spot, rather than the division title, was the important thing. We'll see how Jim Tracy and Joe Torre play the weekend out, but I suspect it will be more of the same. How the Red Sox handled last weekend's series in New York is a pretty good indication of what to expect.

In the AL, the Tigers just about put the Twins down by hammering Carl Pavano for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings and surviving Eddie Bonine along the way. The Twins started the game 6-for-9 with a walk, but thanks to a double play and a caught stealing they picked up just two runs. Well, it was more than that-every hit was a single, which is one of the Twins' problems. They have no power outside of the middle of their lineup, so despite having 30 hits in the first three games of the series, they have just 10 runs, because they have six doubles and nothing bigger than those among their 30 knocks. We can praise smallball and doing the little things and treat the Twins like they invented the game, but if you can't reach the warning track now and again, you're just not going to score enough runs to win. The loss of Justin Morneau was a tipping point, and while the scored a bunch of runs in the early days of his absence, they just don't have a good offense without him.

The Tigers can clinch today, although they don't have a great matchup. If they lose, they'll have to either take two of three from the White Sox over the weekend, or hope the Twins-who have to face Zack Greinke tomorrow-lose at least one. The unadjusted version of the Playoff Odds Report makes the Tigers about a 24-1 favorite, which seems about right. I expect that will also be about the size of their underdog status next week as well.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Joe's other articles. You can contact Joe by clicking here

15 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Juris
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

A bit too much of a "homer" there, Joe. You will be permitted to start rooting for the Yankees after the team and pitching matchups are settled.

Oct 01, 2009 12:33 PM
rating: -4
 
deadwings112

Clearly he doesn't want to remember 2006.

Oct 01, 2009 12:59 PM
rating: -1
 
holyvenom

He's right though - no way the Tigers will be seen as anything but a complete, overmatched fumbling underdog before the series starts (by most, at least).

Oct 01, 2009 13:27 PM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Joe Sheehan
BP staff
(17)

Talking about perception. You think I'd ever call any team a 24/1 favorite in a best-of-five?

Oct 01, 2009 13:29 PM
 
Juris

I think he was still living on the West Coast then, so put it out of mind.

Oct 01, 2009 13:08 PM
rating: -2
 
gtgator

I've been critical before, so only fair to be complimentary as well - great write-up on the NL portion of the column.

The Braves have definitely made some decisions the last couple of games (and all year, for that matter) that make you wonder "what if" and it was hard to see how it ended last night. But I'll also add that a team that plays at 100+ win pace for more than 2/3 of the season deserves a lot of credit as well.

Perhaps if the Braves can find a RH bat without decimating the pitching this off-season, the team can give Bobby one last chance at a WS in 2010. But for now, congrats to the Rox and, once again, great article.

Oct 01, 2009 14:02 PM
rating: 0
 
emanski

As a Phillies fan, all I know is Matt Diaz hits about 1.650 against us. It's natural to be disappointed at what happened there, but hopefully with some perspective fans will recognize that he won them some games too, just not the ones at the end.

Oct 01, 2009 14:37 PM
rating: 0
 
Ira

on a similar vein, I was shocked when I looked it up and saw that Vlad Guerrero was "only" a .294/.334/.459 hitter this year. Why? because as a Rangers fan I figured, "Hey, he hit .400 against us again this year, just like every other year, his overall numbers must be the same."

Career against Texas: .396/.461/.666
2009 against Texas: .404/.433/.579

I think at this point if I'm Ron Washington I order him hit every time he comes to the plate. Might as well.

Oct 02, 2009 11:06 AM
rating: 0
 
husier
(90)

The Braves have only their front office to blame. Starting the season with an Anderson-Schafer-Francoeur outfield put them in a bind.

Oct 01, 2009 16:23 PM
rating: 1
 
Matthew Avery

Schafer was okay until he got hurt in mid-April. The problem was not benching him before June....

Oct 01, 2009 17:46 PM
rating: 0
 
fantasyking

I think that comment was meant to be serious, but it's actually pretty funny. He was doing great until mid-April!

Oct 01, 2009 18:52 PM
rating: 3
 
Aaron/YYZ

In a slightly unrelated note to last night's play, was I the only one gratified to see David Ortiz handle his plunking by Halladay with class? The big man decided to just grin and bear it after Papelbon had drilled the Jays best hitter in the late innings of a blowout the night before. A much better response IMO than Posada's antics the week before that lead to benches clearing.

Oct 01, 2009 17:44 PM
rating: 2
 
Richard Bergstrom

If I were the Rockies, I'd rest up the regulars, perhaps getting Fowler some more at-bats and letting Gonzalez heal. The Rockies will be facing a Phillies team quite similar to the ones they swept in the NLDS in 2007 and I'd think they'd have a better shot against the Phillies than against the Cardinals.

Oct 01, 2009 18:15 PM
rating: 0
 
stevedave

Should the Rox sweep the Dodgers, it would keep alive Jason Marquis' odd personal streak of pitching for a division champion every year of his otherwise pretty ordinary career.

Oct 02, 2009 11:20 AM
rating: 0
 
ofMontreal

Even more interesting is the very high percentage that we will be watching game 163 on Monday.

Oct 02, 2009 15:29 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
You Could Look It Up: ... (10/01)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Sele... (09/30)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospectus Today: Do o... (10/04)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Future Shock: Trayvon ... (10/02)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 24
Premium Article Daisy Cutter: Carlos Rodon and the White Sox...
Eyewitness Accounts: April 24, 2015
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: Of Signals and Sausages
Raising Aces: Debut Ante: Raisel Iglesias
Painting the Black: No D In Desmond?
BP Bronx

MORE FROM OCTOBER 1, 2009
You Could Look It Up: Walkless in Wrigleyvil...
Premium Article Transaction Action: Winding Down the NL
Premium Article Kiss'Em Goodbye: Florida Marlins

MORE BY JOE SHEEHAN
2009-10-06 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Series Previews
2009-10-05 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Madness
2009-10-04 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Do or Die
2009-10-01 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Bitter Endings
2009-09-30 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Selection Bias
2009-09-29 - Prospectus Today: Drama Delayed
2009-09-28 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Clinching
More...

MORE PROSPECTUS TODAY
2009-10-06 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Series Previews
2009-10-05 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Madness
2009-10-04 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Do or Die
2009-10-01 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Bitter Endings
2009-09-30 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Selection Bias
2009-09-29 - Prospectus Today: Drama Delayed
2009-09-28 - Premium Article Prospectus Today: Clinching
More...