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Baseball Prospectus’ Pre-season Projection: 70-92, fourth place
Current record: 83-69, second place

Big D may be about to become a baseball town. Fort Worth and Arlington, too.


Buster Olney of ESPN.com’s Take

What went wrong: The Rangers just ran out of gas at the end of the season, particularly when veteran Kevin Millwood (3.46 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.61 after) and rookie phenom Derek Holland (ERAs of 5.77 in August and 10.20 in September) began to struggle. And the reality is that owner Tom Hicks’ financial problems hurt them, because if they had had more financial flexibility at the trade deadline or in August, Texas could have been more aggressive adding some help in the push for the playoffs. But overall, this was a year of growth for the Rangers, who installed Elvis Andrus at shortstop and brought along two guys who could be impact pitchers in Holland and Neftali Feliz. And the Rangers can reasonably assume that their offense-usually the backbone for this team-can be better in 2010, after ranking out of the top 10 in runs scored for the first time in almost a decade.

Biggest puzzler on the drawing board: How much will the Rangers’ hands be tied by the forthcoming ownership change? You could easily see the avenue to contention-they could add a veteran starting pitcher like John Lackey, and hope that Josh Hamilton recovers from his ailments. But it’s unclear exactly how much flexibility GM Jon Daniels will have. Here’s one example of how the personnel moves of the Rangers might be impacted: the team is in position to make a pretty money-friendly deal for Milton Bradley, who is going to be dumped by the Cubs. But with a new owner coming on board, would it be a worthwhile risk for Daniels to acquire Bradley, knowing that there might be some embarrassing incident? Probably not. Daniels will probably have to work deftly and cheaply to improve the team.


The Baseball Prospectus Take

As has been obvious for months now, the big story here is the club’s dramatic improvement in run prevention. Some of that’s being put on Nolan Ryan‘s no-nonsense thoughts on the subject, but the addition of pitching coach Mike Maddux aided Millwood (.541 SNWP) as well as the development of youngsters Scott Feldman (.586) and Tommy Hunter (.551). Before the season began, the PECOTA-driven suggestion that the Rangers wouldn’t score 800 runs on the year for the first time in a full regular season since 1992 was cause for some controversy, but that was one thing that’s actually come to pass (they’re on a pace to wind up about 20 runs short). Their reliance on their home park to inflate their offensive performance is an issue (slugging .420 on the road against .473 at The Ballpark is just one symptom). Hamilton was a disappointment when he was healthy enough to play, Chris Davis whiffed his way out of a job and was demoted to get reacquainted with making contact, and the last year of the Rangers’ relationship with Hank Blalock proved that, once you got past the enigma wrapped in a riddle as to what he’d do if healthy, the answer was “not much.”-Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus


Key stat: 1.52

That’s the Rangers’ Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is good for second in the American League (behind the also-improved Mariners). The Rangers also boast a .702 Defensive Efficiency rating, also second in the league behind the Mariners, making them one of only two teams in the junior circuit converting more than 70 percent of balls in play into outs. As for who might claim victory, as is always the case it has many fathers: the addition of Andrus at short plus the benefit of playing Michael Young at third tightened up the interior defense, certainly, but credit’s due to Ron Washington for his extended work with Ian Kinsler at second, and Davis can pick it at first base. Put it all together, and you’ve got an infield that has done wonders for converting tough talk about improved pitching into on-field results.-Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus


ESPN.com Rumor Central

Money: If you want to know what ownership flux can feel like, ask the Cubs. All year that team was handicapped by lack of clarity on its budget because management wasn’t sure who would be paying the bills in the end. The Rangers and Daniels-who has brought rain to a system that used to be a dust bowl-now face a similar set of circumstances. This week, reports are that between four and six groups are interested in taking over the ownership reins, including one led by Ryan, whose involvement with the organization most feel has been productive. Also intriguing: Sandy Alderson, former exec for the A’s, Padres, and MLB, might be in the mix.

Free Agency: You won’t hear “Free Bird” played in Arlington over the last week of the season. The Rangers don’t want to give Marlon Byrd any ideas. He started the year sharing playing time with Andruw Jones, but Byrd has locked down center field during a career year in which he’s hit .280 with 17 home runs. The problem is that he’ll be a free agent, and the $3 million he made this year might triple in a two- or three-year deal. Byrd says he wants to stay, and the Rangers want to make it happen.


Who 2 Watch 4: Neftali Feliz, RHP

In the span of two months, Feliz has already established himself as one of the most dominant relievers in the majors, recording three times as many strikeouts as hits allowed. The open question now is, where do we go from here? Brought up as a starter throughout his career, he’d certainly have more value to the Rangers in that role, but at the same time, he’s been so incredible in the bullpen, do the Rangers really want to mess with that? It’s basically a Joba Chamberlain situation with 1/100th the spotlight, or the drama.-Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus


Draft recap

Signed: 25 of 51
Spent: Just more than $3 million.
Hit: The Rangers inked right-hander Tanner Scheppers (selected 44th overall), and he’s a good fit in Texas with his power arsenal. The upside is huge, as Scheppers may have the best stuff of any arm in the draft (non-Strasburg category), but the risk is equally sizable due to the shoulder problems that crept up late in 2008.
Miss: Matt Purke, LHP (14th overall). Taking a player in the first round if you aren’t able or willing to give him the money that every club knew he was demanding is an unforgiveable mistake.-Jason A. Churchill, ESPN.com


The Bottom Line

The big challenge for the Rangers is going to be figuring out if youngsters Feliz, Holland, and Matt Harrison as well as oft-disappointing, oft-injured Brandon McCarthy will be ready to perform up to anything like the standards set by Hunter and Feldman, thereby creating a particularly nice problem as far as picking a rotation behind Millwood. With this much pitching talent on hand, the chances that the Rangers iron out the issue of picking the right ones for the more important roles are good. Similarly, the lineup’s going to need to see improvements from Davis, Hamilton, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There’s a powerhouse a-building with this many former or active blue-chip talents in play, but it’ll be up to the organization to pick the right horses and keep them from foundering. If they don’t screw it up, a Rangers dynasty is a real possibility.-Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus

A version of this story originally appeared for free on ESPN Insider Insider.

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eighteen
9/28
I don't see how you can "reasonably assume" the Rangers' offense will be better next year. Young and Byrd won't be better; Cruz might be, but he'll be 30 and he's hardly been consistent; Hamilton's woes are more likely to continue than be resolved, which means a lot of David Murphy; and the catching options are, offensively, awful.

So "assuming" the offense improves assumes Kinsler, Andrus, and Davis can more than make up for the uncertainty and regression elsewhere in the lineup; and/or that Daniels will land a decent bat on the FA market.

I don't think either of those assumptions (though possible) are reasonable.
irablum
9/29
The answer to your question is the following:

24, 23, 20, and 23.

Those are the ages of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Chris Davis, Elvis Andrus, and Julio Borbon.

Kinsler is 27
Hamilton, 28
Cruz, 28
Murphy, 27.

Heck, even Blalock is only 28, though he's probably gone this winter.


So, what you are looking at is some pretty wide error bars here on future offensive performance. That, to fans of baseball, is called, "optimism".
baserip4
9/28
eighteen - consider the source.
baserip4
9/28
Hmmmm... Old Rangers centerfielder has career year after career of falling short of expectations and is now seeking large long-term contract. Get Gary Matthews agent on the phone!
Cambridge
9/28
Living in Boston, I feel a slight bit of unease reading this, given that the Rangers have not yet been mathematically eliminated. I'm fully of aware probability, but this is, after all, baseball, where funny things sometimes happen.
JoeSky60
9/28
Agreed! There's several other teams that could have been "kissed goodbye", before the Rangers, despite the apparent inevitability.
ckahrl
9/28
It was tied to the launch of ESPN.com's Dallas-specific site, so the Red(s) menace got to linger a bit, just to pick an example of an obviously unkissed ballclub.
Oleoay
9/29
The Reds need a good tongue-lashing.
irablum
9/29
I too was surprised and enraged to see that BP had published a "Kiss em Goodbye" article on the Rangers when they hadn't been eliminated and they were playing the team who could do it. Definitely bad luck there.....

So, Christian Karhl! I curse you for premature kissing, and label the witch, to be burned in effigy at the 2010 List day/BP event. (Unless you attend, in which case we'll just throw stuffed animals at you.)

As long as you don't say that you had written the article before the 8th inning melt down on Sunday, which nearly killed some old diehards at the game on sunday.
ckahrl
9/29
And here I felt I'd be back in favor in Texas after picking the Rangers to finish second in the AL West before the season. (IIRC.) Anyway, Momma always said I shouldn't go kissing (st)Rangers. I was only following orders!
buffum
9/28
Tommy Hunter is a neat guy to watch, and I'm rootin' for him and everything, but his peripherals make it seem like duplicating this year's numbers is a pretty bad bet. It would surprise me very little if he and Feldman posted 2010 ERAs that were at least a half-run higher, which would make the future a little less rose-colored.
irablum
9/29
Its conceivable that Hunter and Feldman could see their 2010 ERAs rise by a half a run, and for Millwood to see his rise by a half a run, and for the overall staffs ERA to still go down. If Feliz is in the Rotation and pitches 180 innings (unlikely, more likely he starts in the pen and moves into the rotation and finishes with about 120 innings pitched), and if Holland's ERA comes down in his second major league season (considering his electric stuff and previous success at preventing the long ball), plus a lot less innings from guys name Grilli, Benson, Padilla, and Jennings, then the Rangers overall ERA could still be in the 4.5 range next year. And that would be a great thing.
ofMontreal
9/30
Is Borbon really so bad he can't play center? The Cubs sure had a hankerin' for Byrd last year, I don't really see that going away. 3 years 30 mil anyone?
irablum
9/30
Borbon is improving defensively, and should be able to handle centerfield next year. Plus, they should have Greg Golson to back him up, or even Josh Hamilton or David Murphy.

I also expect that Byrd will get big money to go elsewhere this winter and that whoever gets him will be disappointed. And that the Rangers players and coaches and broadcasters and Fans will all be up in arms about him being let go. He's a decent hitter, decent fielder, ok baserunner, and a Great guy in the clubhouse. Is that worth $10 mill a year? NO. and the Rangers shouldn't pay it.
ofMontreal
10/01
I'm going to you with all my Rangers questions Ira. Not that they could afford that kind of contract anyway. As of my calculations, the Rangers don't have any job openings next season correct? Cruz DH. Murphy(does he hit enough?) in left and Hamilton in right?
irablum
10/01
Golson doesn't hit enough to even be a 5th outfielder, and I believe that the team thinks of Murphy as a 4th of, and not a regular. Unless they resign Byrd, we're looking at two openings: OF and DH. Given the ownership flux, the OF opening is going to have to be a 1 year reclamation project and the DH might have to be Smoak, though they'll bring in a deep reclamation Project for that (maybe Thome Giambi or Hafner?)

The only outfielder I saw that seems to fit the bill is Vernon Wells, but we can't afford his contract. Melvin Mora is a thought, as he can play infield as well. Not sure of the contract situations of these players though.

ckahrl
10/01
Mora might be a thought, but it's not a good one, and it's a bit of an assumption that he can help a club at any position, let alone in the outfield. Smoak'em if you've got him, I say.