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September 10, 2009

Future Shock Blog

September 10th

by Kevin Goldstein

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A name you should know

Simon Castro, RHP, Padres (Low-A Fort Wayne)
Thursday's stats: 6.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K
I was talking to a scout on Tuesday and we started talking about the best pitchers we saw in the Midwest League this year. Detroit's Casey Crosby (who got shelled last night) was the first to come to mind, but both of us agree the Castro deserves to be in the argument for number two, and he certainly showed why in the Wizards playoff opener. A 21-year-old Domincan with serious heat and plus command, he finished the year with a 3.33 ERA, but the numbers that really stand out are the 157 strikeouts against just 37 walks in 140 1/3 innings.

Kind of not fair, but what can you do?

Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP, Red Sox (High-A Salem)
Thursday's stats: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K
In the end, you have to at least empathize with Winston-Salem manager Joe McEwing. He busts his hump to get his team into the Carolina League playoffs and then, for the opener, his team of players in their first or second full-season as pros get to face a rehabbing Matsuzaka. It's understandable certainly, as the minors are designed to get guys ready for the big leagues, and that takes precedence over all else (as it should). However, this is a good lesson that even winning is secondary once you get below the big leagues.

Lots to like, lots to wonder about

Juan Francisco, 3B, Reds (Triple-A Louisville)
Thursday's stats: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, K
Francisco hit 27 home runs this year, including a .359/.384/.598 line in 22 Triple-A games at the end of the season. As a 22-year-old, one would think he'd be a monster prospect, but there are still a lot of questions about his game, particularly an aggressive approach that led to just 19 unintentional walks and the fact that defensively, he's well below average and destined for a move to first. It's an odd combination of incredible strengths and glaring weaknesses that makes him difficult to rank as a prospect.

Continuing the surge

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Rays (Triple-A Rays)
Thursday's stats: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 12 K
In his last five regular season starts, Hellickson struck out 48 over 34 1/3 innings while giving up just 12 hits. He kept that going on Wednesday by recording 12 of his 17 outs via the strikeout, although he did give up a pair of bombs, including one to Francisco. He's not overwhelming physically, but he's a heady pitcher with a variety of plus offerings, almost in the mold of a Zack Greinke lite. Note to the world: I did NOT just say Hellickson is going to be as good as Zack Greinke, I just noted some similarities.

Not a big prospect, but what a game

Anthony Lerew, RHP, Roylals (Double-A Northwest Arkansas)
Thursday's stats: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K
Once a hot prospect with the Braves, Lerew's lack of overpowering velocity caught up with him at the upper levels, and then Tommy John surgery all but removed him from the prospect radar. Now two months short of 27 and pitching in Double-A, he's little more than an organizational soldier, but you have to give him credit for Wednesday night's performance. Not only did he shutout Springfield, he did it on just 73 pitches in one of the most efficient performances you'll ever see, as he averaged 8.1 pitches per inning and 2.5 per batter.

Sleeper alert!

Ben Snyder, LHP, Giants (Double-A Connecticut)
Thursday's stats: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K
This is kind of the opposite of the Dice-K situation. Connecticut gets to the playoffs, gets ready to start their ace, left-hander Madison Bumgarner, for game one, and the next thing you know, Tim Lincecum says "Ouch!" and they need a replacement. Snyder spent much of the year in the bullpen, but he pitched well as a starter at the end of the year and gave the Defenders an outing every bit as good as they could have expected from Bumgarner on Wednesday. A big, physical southpaw with solid velocity and a bit of deception, left-handed hitters can't touch him (.146/.198/.197 this year), so he's a future LOOGY at the very least.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

8 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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I can't believe you guaran-damn-teed that Hellickson will be better than 10 Zack Greinkes.

Sep 10, 2009 11:39 AM
rating: 9
Matt Kory

So Matsuzaka was able to strike out seven A ballers? Forgive me if I'm not very impressed. But more importantly than my reaction, what does this mean for Matsuzaka and the Red Sox going forward? Does he get a green light to start for Boston now?

Sep 10, 2009 11:48 AM
rating: 0

Kevin, is there any limitation on roster movements for the minor league playoffs? For instance, if your FSL team missed the playoffs and your Midwest league team made the playoffs, does anything in the rules prevent you from just flipping the rosters for the two teams? From a more rational player development perspective, can you take those prospects your highest on from one team and want to see keep playing (even against the level lower or higher) and put them on the team that did make the playoffs? If so, how common is this?

Sep 10, 2009 11:49 AM
rating: 6
Vince Galloro

I'm also interested in the answers to these questions.

Sep 10, 2009 14:05 PM
rating: 0

Sweet....another Greinke brewing in Tampa!! Yes!!

Sep 10, 2009 12:17 PM
rating: 1

Snider isn't that good, 86-88 and I saw Fernando Martinez last summer hit a bomb off his changeup last summer in Binghamton.

Sep 10, 2009 14:35 PM
rating: 0

in reply to the previous post asking about the rules for the MWL playoffs, you can bring folks UP at just about any time (i.e, from short season ball) and they can play for your MWL team in the playoffs. If someone is coming down (as you suggest) they need to be on the roster by a certain date (a few weeks before the end of the season) to be eligible to play in the MWL playoffs.

Sep 16, 2009 12:29 PM
rating: 0

If your question is driven by Matsuzaka pitching, the reason he was eligible is because he is a major leaguer on rehab. Those folks are not subject to the same restrictions as minor leaguers (they don't need to have been moved down by a certain time to be eligible to play in the playoffs).

Sep 16, 2009 12:32 PM
rating: 0
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