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September 3, 2009

Prospectus Today

Soaring Cardinals

by Joe Sheehan

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Four weeks ago today, the St. Louis Cardinals were reeling from a 9-0 loss to the distinctly undermanned New York Mets. Having won a dramatic extra-inning game just one night before, the Cardinals were helpless against Jon Niese, Nelson Figueroa, and Bobby Parnell as Kyle Lohse got rocked for five runs in 2 2/3 innings. They maintained a first-place tie with the Chicago Cubs, who were themselves shut out in Cincinnati by Justin Lehr. There was a real sense that this would be the race to watch down the stretch, with the loser likely the favorite for the wild-card slot, the NL Central set to once again send two teams to the postseason.

Today, the Cards have a 10-game bulge over the Cubs, the largest of any division leader. The question for them isn't whether the Cardinals will make the playoffs, but whether they, not the Phillies or Dodgers, are the best team in baseball. Since that blowout loss to the Mets, the Cardinals are 20-4, having allowed fewer than three runs per game. They've been a little fortunate-their runs scored and allowed would project to 17-7 in that time-but mostly they've stopped the other team cold, enabling them to win with a good, not great, offense. On balance, they've played a set of below-average offenses in that time, which has helped them keep scoring down, but again, that doesn't explain 2.9 RA/G.

What does explain it is a pitching staff that doesn't give anything up. Cards pitchers have walked just 51 men unintentionally in that time, against 165 strikeouts, a better than 3-to-1 ratio-as a staff. They've allowed just 15 home runs in 24 games. Back in May, their pitchers went more than 11 games without allowing a long ball; right now they're working on a 10-game stretch in which they've allowed just four. If you don't walk the opposition or allow them to go deep, you're two-thirds of the way to keeping them off the board completely. Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro have walked just four men apiece in this span, covering five starts each. By pounding the strike zone, these pitchers are able to work deeper into games as well, enabling the Cardinals to have a higher percentage of innings thrown by their better pitchers.

The defense has been supportive as well. Cardinals pitchers have allowed a .284 BABIP during this time, as the addition of Matt Holliday in left field and the decision to play Brendan Ryan at shortstop have paid dividends. Cards' fielders have allowed just four batters to reach on error in the team's last 24 games. Yadier Molina's tremendous arm has also been a factor: Cardinals opponents have just five stolen bases in eight tries in that span. So now you have a team that isn't giving up walks, home runs, or stolen bases, and is limiting hits to a bit more than one on every four balls in play. The question starts to become not "how did they allow just 69 runs in 24 games?" but "how did the other guys even get 69?:

Consider now that of those 24 games, three were started by Mitchell Boggs and three by Kyle Lohse. The Cards took three of the four losses in this stretch with one of those two guys making the start. When starting their top three, the Cardinals have lost just one game since August 5, that a 4-3 loss to the Astros last Thursday in a game decided by a solo home run in the ninth inning. Take it back to the Matt Holliday trade, and call John Smoltz the team's likely fourth starter in a post-season series, and you find that the Cardinals who will be playing in the postseason, the ones with Holliday and without Boggs and Lohse, are 23-2.

Now, the question I was asked earlier today on the radio, about whether the Cardinals rather than the Dodgers or Phillies are the best team in the National League, starts to make sense. The Cardinals are 27-9 with Matt Holliday, and 23-2 with Matt Holliday and one of their post-season starters on the mound. That team has outscored its opponents 133-52. That team looks like the best in the National League, and quite possibly the best team in baseball. If any NL team has a case for that crown right now, it's the Cardinals' playoff roster, which has basically been unbeatable for nearly six weeks.

The Cards' edge in the NL Central wouldn't be as big as it is without the Cubs' failures. However, even if the Cubs had played .600 ball since the last time the two teams were tied, they would be 5 games back, and the Cards would have the third-biggest lead of any team in baseball. That's how good the Cardinals have been-even projecting sunshine and roses for the Cubs would yield a big lead for St. Louis. In reality, the Cards have the kind of lead that's going to allow them to spend most of September resting veterans, managing workloads-remember, Chris Carpenter hasn't done this in three years-and figuring out exactly what the bullpen will look like in a month's time.

What's scary is that the Cards may yet get a little better. Third base had been a black hole all season long as a result of Troy Glaus' unavailability due to a shoulder injury. Glaus returned in a pinch-hitting role Wednesday, and if he can come anywhere close to his career performance, he'll be an asset for a team that has struggled to get adequate performance from the many replacements it's tried, up to and including Mark DeRosa, who has just a .310 OBP as a Cardinal. Glaus didn't hit well during an extensive rehabilitation period, so he's not guaranteed to help-and Tony La Russa may not even play him much-but there's upside here that clearly isn't present in DeRosa or Joe Thurston.

Regardless of whether Glaus has an impact, the Cardinals have established themselves as the dominant team in the National League through their performance. The current version of the team is a .750 squad, and the team that will be playing in the NLDS is a ridiculous .920 team. As good as the Phillies have been with Cliff Lee, and as much talent as the Dodgers have, neither can measure up to that.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Joe's other articles. You can contact Joe by clicking here

Related Content:  The Who,  Cardinals

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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jgerard

Joe,

You're a terrific analyst, but you can't be serious in saying that any of the NL division leaders is the best team in baseball. They'd be lucky to make the wild card in the AL, and would all finish fourth in the AL East. I think the superiority of the AL has been demonstrated both statistically and experientially (all-star games, WS wins).

Anyway, keep up the good work.

JimGerard

Sep 04, 2009 02:58 AM
rating: 1
 
SaberTJ

The All star games I'll agree with you, but the WS wins haven't been dominated by the AL since the Yankees stopped winning them.

Sep 04, 2009 05:52 AM
rating: 2
 
Bob

Sorry, but how on earth could you argue that the AL All-Star wins (or WS wins for that matter) are any indication whatsoever of league superiority? Have we learned nothing from Baseball Prospectus/Sabermetrics over the past several years?

Sep 04, 2009 06:43 AM
rating: 1
 
awayish

he may have cited 2 bad stats, but more honest analysis does show that al > nl at least in strength across the board.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9481

Sep 04, 2009 07:15 AM
rating: 3
 
Chad

I tend to think the Yankees are really the only AL team that stands out above and beyond the NL division leaders. I would put the Cards, the Dodgers and maybe even the Phillies right up there with the Red Sox, Rays and Angels this season, and certainly above anyone in the AL Central

Sep 04, 2009 07:14 AM
rating: 1
 
Matt L.

I think he possibly meant to say NL (or it was a bad edit), as suggested by the later quote that says "Now, the question I was asked earlier today on the radio, about whether the Cardinals rather than the Dodgers or Phillies are the best team in the National League, starts to make sense."

Sep 04, 2009 07:53 AM
rating: 3
 
Drew Miller

Was just about to post this. Even without accounting for strength of league and strength of schedule, the Yankees are the best team in baseball. After that, you're probably looking at the Red Sox.

Sep 04, 2009 09:38 AM
rating: 0
 
Matthew Avery

You're right that the AL East (not the whole AL; just the East) is better than the NL, and Sheehan clearly meant to ask if the Cards were the best team in the NL.

In fact, he as much as says that this is what he meant at the start of the 6th paragraph:

"Now, the question I was asked earlier today on the radio, about whether the Cardinals rather than the Dodgers or Phillies are the best team in the National League, starts to make sense."

Sep 05, 2009 19:01 PM
rating: 0
 
Benjamin Harris

I'll agree that the AL is clearly better than the NL, but the way to measure it is not All Star game victories, nor World Series victories (it's only 5-4 for the AL this decade). Wouldn't it be best to just look at interleague play? The AL has dominated the last five years.

Sep 06, 2009 10:02 AM
rating: 0
 
morillos

A .920 team in the weaker league isn't better than a .650 team in the stronger league? There's at least a discussion there.

But then, I am a Cards fan. And a damn happy one at the moment.

Sep 04, 2009 11:10 AM
rating: 0
 
jseely

You know, as a Sox fan, it pains me to say it but... what's the Yankees' record in that stretch?

Sep 04, 2009 14:24 PM
rating: 1
 
elm
(41)

The Yankees were a .750 team in August and have been a .760 teams since the ASB. I suspect their record is higher if you throw out all games started by Mitre and Guadin, which is analogous to what Joe did to arrive at the .920 number for the Cards.

I'm assuming Joe doesn't really believe the Cards are a .920 team and probably doesn't even think they're a .750 team. I mean, Joe does spend the entire first couple of months of every season warning us about making judgments based upon small sample sizes and how we just can't tell how good a team is based on only 4- or 6-week stretch of data. I wouldn't have minded a little bit of acknowledgment in the piece itself from Joe that he was being hyperbolic, but I guess he figured his regular readers know him well enough to understand.

Sep 05, 2009 08:30 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Joe Sheehan
BP staff
(17)

When we're evaluating these teams for the postseason, we need to think like this. (Setting aside the salient points about short series, for the moment.) How the Sox did with Penny, Smoltz or Tazawa, the Yanks with Mitre, the Angels with Loux or O'Sullivan or Palmer...these things aren't terribly relevant. Those teams don't exist. The Cardinals before Holliday, or with Mitchell Boggs on the mound...the Dodgers without Manny Ramirez, the Phillies behind Jamie Moyer...

I don't think the Cardinals are a .920 team behind their top four starters. I also don't think their season record accurately assesses their current state, and if I'm going to err, it will be on weighting everything after 7/23 heavily.

Sep 06, 2009 13:21 PM
 
Flynnbot

umm...well, weren't the Rockies a few years back about a .950 team for a four-week span heading into the playoffs (and then the Series?) You can't possibly believe the Cards (any version you would like to construct) are a "true" .750 or .920 team, can you Joe? And "best team in baseball," without mentioning any AL teams?

The sloppiness is getting to me.

Sep 04, 2009 13:06 PM
rating: -3
 
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