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September 3, 2009

Checking the Numbers

Lidge and the Matter of Historic Horror

by Eric Seidman

Yesterday, we broke down Brad Lidge’s poor 2009 campaign in an attempt to diagnose and pinpoint the reasons behind his drastic decline in performance. And boy howdy has that decline been drastic, as Lidge went from the top reliever in the game last season with a league-best 7.61 WXRL, a 1.95 ERA, and an 82.9 percent strand rate to marks of -1.93, 7.03, and 62.9 percent, respectively. After examining various facets of his game in relation to years past, it seemed that the larger issue of his approach proved problematic, with Lidge currently averaging around 93 mph—likely as a result of his prior knee injuries—yet continuing to pitch as if he regularly pumps gas at 96-97 mph. Today, however, we will answer the question of where Lidge’s terrible 2009 season ranks historically amongst the worst relief and/or closer seasons of all time.

Right off the bat, the investigation becomes tricky because very few relievers performing as poorly as our subject have been able to hold down steady high-leverage work into the final month of the season. Lidge’s -1.93 WXRL currently ranks dead last in baseball, approximately seven-tenths of a win worse than runner-up Kyle Farnsworth. Perhaps a repeat of last season’s dominance should not have been expected in any way, shape or form, but if Lidge had performed similarly to, say, John Grabow during his run with the Pirates this season, the swing from -1.9 to 3.5 wins would likely have the Phillies leading the senior circuit's potential playoff pack for home-field advantage.

In looking at WXRL from a historical standpoint (1954-2009), I used 40 innings pitched as a minimum. The ten seasons below constitute the worst relieved seasons ever meeting this criteria:

Year  Pitcher              IP    SV   BS    WXRL
1992  Steve Wilson        66.2    0    5   -2.86
1988  Goose Gossage       43.2   13   10   -2.74
1984  Pete Ladd           91.0    3    7   -2.64
1998  Bobby Ayala         75.1    8    9   -2.57
2001  Juan Acevedo        60.1    0    5   -2.49
1971  Lindy McDaniel      69.2    4    7   -2.45
1971  Ron Perranoski      60.2    7    7   -2.36
1986  Ron Davis           58.2    2    4   -2.35
2008  Jason Isringhausen  42.2   12    7   -2.34
1965  Jack Baldschun      99.0    6    6   -2.31

Lidge’s current season, obviously still in progress, ranks 32^nd from the bottom. While his numbers are certainly awful, a fair share of relievers have performed worse, which is an interesting concept to fathom, as it becomes particularly difficult to imagine a reliever less effective and with similar playing time than he has been this season. However, one aspect of that table should stick out like a sore thumb: very few of the players were full-time closers, and those few who were did not keep the job for the entire season.

In 1988, Goose Gossage led the Cubs with his 13 saves, but would ultimately lose his job in the middle of the season; Frank DiPino saved six games, and Les Lancaster chipped in with five more. Of course, not all of Gossage’s 10 blown saves came in the final frame, but breaking up legitimate save opportunities is a topic for another day. Jason Isringhausen’s ineffectiveness last season led to a brief Tony La Russa experiment with Chris Perez before the out-of-nowhere emergence of Ryan Franklin began to captivate audiences. In spite of the awful numbers he has posted this season, Lidge has yet to be demoted from the role of closer, and he has racked up 27 saves in 36 opportunities, a staggering number of chances given his league-worst WXRL while giving little indication of turning things around.