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August 24, 2009

Future Shock

Monday Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein

Tim Beckham, SS, Rays (Low-A Bowling Green)
The first full season of last year's first overall pick has generated far more questions than answers, as Beckham has just never really had that one big hot streak that gets everyone excited. He's also struggling with an impatient approach and some sloppiness both in the field and on the basepaths. The Rays are hoping that what's been going on over the past week is that he's ending the year on a high note, as with an 8-for-13 weekend and 15-for-30 mark in his last seven games (with six doubles and a triple), his averages are up to a much more acceptable .281/.335/.408 in 112 contests. Regardless, based on scouts' reactions to him, Beckham will be one of the more difficult prospects for me to rank during the offseason.

Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee)
It was a big surprise to see Castro begin the year at High-A as a 19-year-old after only playing the complex league last year, so now it's an even bigger surprise to see him at Double-A. A contact machine who hit .302/.340/.391 in the Florida State League, Castro got off to a slow start with the Smokies, but after going 3-for-3 last Thursday and delivering two-hit games in all three weekend contests, he's now up to .297/.375/.344 with just three strikeouts in 64 at-bats. His lack of power and questionable range for the left side keep him from being an elite-level prospect, but a weak Cubs farm system will take anything they can get.

Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals (Triple-A Syracuse)
This just might be an example of a genuine late bloomer. A third-round pick in 2004, Desmond's tools and athleticism has had many projecting him as the Nationals' shortstop of the future for years, but there was one big problem with that: he didn't hit. Showing a much better approach this year in terms of both plate discipline and a focus on contact over power, Desmond hit .306/.372/.494 at Double-A this year. He's batting .406 in his last ten Triple-A games, raising his overall line to .328/.413/.400 in the International League. He should be up in September, and given that he doesn't turn 24 for another month, he's still a prospect.

Jason Kipnis, OF, Indians (Short-Season Mahoning Valley)
I'm not going to couch things here, I'm a big Kipnis fan, and I think the Indians got a great pick when he fell a bit later than expected to the 63^rd overall pick in June. He's not a human toolshed as much as he's a solid-across-the-board type, and by going 5-for-12 over the weekend with three doubles and four RBI, he's now batting a healthy .345/.403/.586 in his first 15 professional games.

Aaron Miller, LHP, Dodgers (Low-A Great Lakes)
A fast-riser this spring, Miller was more of an outfielder than a pitcher during his first two years at Baylor, but his stuff on the mound took a huge step forward this spring, earning him a nearly $900,000 bonus as the Dodgers' first pick of the 2009 draft in the supplemental phase of the first round. After making a few warmup appearances in the complex league, Miller has had no problems pitching in a full-season circuit, as with 5 1/3 scoreless innings on Saturday, he has a 2.11 ERA in five outings for the Loons with 29 strikeouts in 21 1/3 frames. An outstanding athlete with a good fastball and an excellent slider, Miller needs to work on his command and fly-ball tendencies, but he's already exceeding expectations in many ways.