Under The Knife: Repea... (08/24)
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August 24, 2009 Prospectus TodayAL Awards Quandary
You’ve probably read in any number of places about the split in opinion over who should be the frontrunner for the American League MVP Award. I’ve stayed out of it, and I’ve done so for exceptionally arrogant reasons. The idea that anyone other than Joe Mauer is the most valuable player in the league is a joke. Mauer leads the league in OBP and SLG, and also leads in VORP and EQR despite missing nearly a month, and he does all these things while being one of the best defensive catchers in the game. It’s not that Mauer is the best player in the league; it’s that he’s so far and away the best player in the league, dominating the field in a way we haven’t seen since the early-2000s versions of Barry Bonds. The arguments for anyone else, from legitimate runner-ups like Ben Zobrist and Derek Jeter to the quixotic attempt to call Mark Teixeira the most deserving, are all laughable. Joe Mauer is the AL MVP, and I fully expect the voters to get there by October 6. The more interesting race to me is for AL Cy Young, where we could see history made. No American League starting pitcher has ever won the Cy Young Award in a full season with less than 18 victories. Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Pete Vuckovich all took down the honor in years when they were credited with 18 wins, which is the low mark. With five weeks and about seven starts left, none of the top contenders for the award in the AL have more than 13 wins. Just two pitchers have more than that number at all, Josh Beckett, who isn’t a candidate, and CC Sabathia, who rates as about the sixth- or seventh-best starter in the league by the value metrics. If there’s going to be an off-the-board choice this year, it will probably be Sabathia, who has a good chance to lead the league in wins and innings pitched and could end up as the only pitcher to reach 20 wins, which is always a good way to steal a Cy Young Award. By the metrics, it’s clear who the best pitchers in the league have been, and just as clear who the most deserving candidate for the hardware is: Pitcher ERA VORP SNLVAR Zack Greinke 2.44 60.2 6.7 Roy Halladay 2.78 54.7 5.0 Felix Hernandez 2.73 51.4 6.1 Edwin Jackson 2.86 49.9 5.9 The line starts at Greinke, who also leads the group in strikeouts and strikeout rate. However, by dint of playing for an awful Royals team, he has just 11 wins. Hernandez has 12, Jackson 10, and Halladay is the leader of the pack at 13. Only Jackson seems likely to get above-average support from his teammates the rest of the way, and he’s both last among the group on merit and coming from the furthest back in the W column.
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
Perhaps, this is the year to give the Cy Young to Mariano.
Whether or not he deserves it I think the voters may wind up on Mariano as sort of a career achievement award especially if no SP seperates from the pack in the voter's minds.
I was wondering the same thing. It's not hard to envision a groundswell of support for giving Rivera a Lifetime Achievement Award. Heck, we've already seen Wakefield selected for the all-star team this year.
In fact, if a couple of prominent writers decide to pick up the Rivera-for-Cy-Young torch, I'd guess he'd be at worst a 2:1 underdog.
I could see Mariano getting a life-time Cy Young, but not for this season. It's pretty hard to argue for any reliever who has only 1 win and 36 saves at this point as being a Cy Young candidate, with wins being the apparent game changer. With 7 wins and 43 saves, Rivera was the runner-up to Colon in 2005 with Santana being an inexcusable 3rd. Just look at last year, K-Rod finished 3rd with 62 saves because Lee & Halladay both cracked 20 wins. Maybe this will FINALLY be the year where performance is more than just wins as Joe alluded to.
Looking back at relievers winning Cy Youngs, I came across Mike Marshall's run from 1972-1974 & then 1978-79. His win/save totals from those years were 14/18, 14/31, 15/21, 10/21, & 10/32. His Cy Young year of 1974 saw him log 208 inning as a reliever. I think this is the type of performance that should be rewarded a Cy Young as a reliever when having to compare to the performance of a starter who is generally in the 200+ inning range, more than likely having more value than a 60-80 inning guy mopping up at the end of games. Without confirming, I would guess WXRL would probably agree.
I dont think even baseball writers take wins seriously for relievers. It is the great showdown of irrelevant stats, saves vs wins.
It's tough for a closer to get a win. Yes, they sometimes come into tie games. But (somebody could check), I would guess that a high percentage of wins by closers were the result of blowing a save and then having their team score in the next half inning. It's rarely even a sign of a good outing.
It's definitely not a good sign when you only throw 80 innings, but a guy like Marshall averaged 2 innings per appearance, which is much more valuable.
And here I was thinking that no award selection could be worse than Teixeira over Mauer.