CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Action: Me... (08/18)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday T... (08/17)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday T... (08/24)
Next Article >>
Under The Knife: All A... (08/19)

August 19, 2009

Future Shock

A Nationals Recovery Plan

by Kevin Goldstein

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

On Monday night, the Nationals did the best thing possible for the future of the organization by signing the number one overall pick of the 2009 draft, Stephen Strasburg. While they once again have the worst record in baseball, the club has been showing signs of life, with a winning record since the All-Star break, and while there's certainly nowhere to go but up, there are signs of life here. It's impossible-if not downright stupid-to say the Nationals can be the next Rays or anything, but there is plenty of evidence that thing are moving in the right direction, and as early as next year, they won't be the laughing stock of major league baseball. Here are three recommendations.

1. Keep Doing What You Are Doing With Young Players

The youngest rotation in baseball gets a little bit younger and a whole lot more talented with the addition of Strasburg, who realistically should be up at some point in the early part of the 2010 season. Current "ace" John Lannan is hardly that, but he is at least a solid number four or five type, while Garrett Mock might be finally putting up the numbers to match what have always been above-average scouting reports. While it will take an extra year for Jordan Zimmermann to return to action following elbow surgery, he'll add a fourth starter to the rotation in 2011, and while it's not exactly the youth and depth in young pitching that you'll find in Oakland and Texas, it's still an impressive group. As far the bullpen in our nation's capital, fellow 2009 first-round pick Drew Storen is moving quickly, and righty Clint Everts is close to being one of the better feel-good stories around after being all but written off after numerous elbow problems.

The Nationals do have a core of young talent to work around in the lineup as well. Ryan Zimmerman, one of the better third basemen around, is only 24 years old, and he's a plus-plus defender with a strong bat who is highly similar to Scott Rolen in his prime. Catcher Jesus Flores (also 24) looked to be taking a big step forward before suffering a shoulder injury in May, and while it seems like he's been around forever, ultra-talented yet troubled outfielder Elijah Dukes is only 25 years old. That's a healthy young core group, and with underrated semi-veterans like Josh Willingham, Nyjer Morgan, and Cristian Guzman in the order as well, the team has a chance to fill out a lineup card next year that features few superstars, but also few automatic outs.

How does one fill the holes? By following a philosophy that worked well last year...

2. Take Advantage Of The Depressed Free Agent Market Again

Remember when Adam Dunn was going to get that huge deal last winter? That never materialized, as the fantasy strategy known as "stars and scrubs" now is being using in the free-agent market, as the truly monster talents get truly monster deals, leaving little money for players just below that. Contracts like $5 million for Bobby Abreu to the Angels and $3.38 million for Orlando Hudson to the Dodgers have proven to be some of the best bargains in the game, as is the two-year $20 million deal the Nationals gave to Adam Dunn. With Austin Kearns and Dmitri Young coming off the payroll this winter, Washington will have a bit of cash to spend, and if they exercise patience once again, they can easily supplement the group of youngsters with valuable, productive vets.

3. Your Future GM Has Been Under Your Nose For Three Years

There has been lots of speculation in recent days about the General Manager position in Washington, as the Nationals have been conducting interviews and may make an announcement as early as this week, with many believing that Jerry DiPoto, Arizona's current Director of Pro Scouting, is the favorite for the job.

No offense to DiPoto, who is an excellent evaluator of talent in his own right, but the man who deserves the job has had the interim tag in front of his position since March, and that's about five months too long. You see all that young talent in Arizona? That was assembled during the watch of Mike Rizzo. Notice how the talent well has dried up a bit for the Diamondbacks? That's no coincidence, either. One of the most respected men in the industry, and one of the best evaluators of young players both within his own organizations and others, the fact the Rizzo has yet to be named the permanent general manager in Washington is laughable, and letting him go would potentially be as damaging to the organization as any player-related move.

The Nationals are not on their way to a sudden 90-win season, or becoming America's darlings with a young, media-savvy front office, but there's talent here, both on the field and among the decision makers if they simply stick with what's slowly working, as opposed to looking for that magic bullet.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

17 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Mountainhawk

First, fire all the Republicans. Then, fire all the Democrats. Then ... oh, wait, NationalS recovery plan. Never mind, that's a much bigger hole to climb out of than what I was talking about.

Aug 19, 2009 09:10 AM
rating: 5
 
murber74

Regarding Rizzo: Don't you think some of the blame for the problems under the Bowden regime should be attributed to Rizzo as well? Maybe the Nationals are right in pursuing DiPoto. I don't know...

Aug 19, 2009 09:12 AM
rating: 0
 
Karl Barth

Um, No. Bowden was the decision-maker and he was the right person to be blamed for the things that happened under his watch.

Rizzo seems to be running the Nats effectively. It would be nice to believe that ownership is noticing and is encouraged by Rizzo's leadership.

But who the heck knows what the top brass will do...

Aug 19, 2009 12:16 PM
rating: 4
 
nationalcoholic

Could someone please tell me when Strasburg's 4-years starts and ends? If he doesn't resign anything, he skips arb and becomes a free agent after 2012? Or 2013? He's already on the 40-man since he's signed to an MLB contract, correct?

Aug 19, 2009 09:39 AM
rating: -1
 
morisato

Strasburg's contract begins next year I think. Afterwards, he would still be subject to arbitration. I believe the Nats just get a bit more cost certainty by buying out a year or so. And yes, he's on the fourty.

Aug 19, 2009 09:56 AM
rating: -2
 
joheimburger

I believe Strasburg's 4-yr deal includes 2009. His 2010-2012 years - likely his first 3 as a big leaguer - are also covered. He should be arbitration eligible for the 2013 -2015 seasons and a FA for 2016.

This all assumes that the Nats don't keep him in the minors for next April to get another year of club control, which would push back his FA eligibility to the 2016 offseason ahead of the 2017 season.

Aug 19, 2009 10:41 AM
rating: 0
 
billm21

If Rizzo is indeed sent on his way by the Nationals, I would hope that the Diamondbacks immediately offer him a position back in AZ ... perhaps even replacing the existing GM. That whole system has gone south since Rizzo left Arizona.

Aug 19, 2009 09:52 AM
rating: 2
 
BaseballNUT2009

Strasburg's contract begins this year. He is getting the MLB minimun ($4oo,ooo) pro-rated for the balance of the season and that is about $172,000) for going to instructional league in Florida and then the AFL.

Hopefully that will get him ready for opening day 2010.

Aug 19, 2009 10:49 AM
rating: 2
 
npullano

Didn't all that young talent in Arizona get traded to Oakland for Dan Haren?

Aug 19, 2009 11:50 AM
rating: 0
 
wonkothesane1

He meant young talent that Rizzo didn't bring in has dried up. Anderson, Cunningham, Carter, Gonzalez and Smith were all brought in before Rizzo left for Washington. He also oversaw the drafting of Drew, Upton, Tracy and Webb. And back in the day signed Frank Thomas to his first professional contract. I'm pretty sure he was also still director of scouting when Gerardo Parra was signed. And his last draft included Max Scherzer as the number 1 pick. It's hard to find any good DBacks (or DBacks prospects beyond Parker) that do not have Rizzo's fingerprints on them. I think that was the point.

Aug 19, 2009 13:59 PM
rating: 2
 
wonkothesane1

Garrett Mock was also drafted by Rizzo (while with the Backs) and was mentioned in this article. Scott Hairston was also drafted by Rizzo and traded to the Padres after Rizzo left. He also drafted Dan Uggla, but in that case was still with the DBacks when the Marlins picked him up the Rule 5 draft. But all that gives you more of a feel for how much talent Rizzo brought the DBacks, which doesn't seem to be coming in anymore.

Aug 19, 2009 14:04 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Christina Kahrl
BP staff
(11)

Aaron Cunningham and Chris Carter were both White Sox products. Sneaky, the way those White Sox keep cranking people out, if you ask me. ;)

Aug 19, 2009 15:19 PM
 
wilykat

"Underrated semi-veteran" is, I think, the most positive thing I've seen about Nyjer Morgan on this site this year. What is it about him that makes him (presumably) project to not being starter-quality for the next couple years?

Aug 19, 2009 16:58 PM
rating: 0
 
Sharky

Much ado about nothing, it seems. Too bad. I was hoping the Mets might land Rizzo in the offseason (after they rid themselves of Minaya).

Aug 20, 2009 06:28 AM
rating: 0
 
mcadwalader

Wow, Kevin, you're powerful. Say it and it happens!

"Rizzo promoted to GM of Nationals"

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4411460

Aug 20, 2009 09:38 AM
rating: 2
 
Mountainhawk

Kevin, Can you suggest the Mets make Minaya "GM for Life"?

Aug 20, 2009 10:03 AM
rating: 4
 
gilgamesh

I just vomited on my laptop.

Aug 21, 2009 13:08 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Action: Me... (08/18)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday T... (08/17)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Future Shock: Monday T... (08/24)
Next Article >>
Under The Knife: All A... (08/19)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: The Quarter-Season Odds Report
West Coast By Us: Day 2: Taco the Town
Going Yard: The Near Perfection of Pederson
West Coast By Us: Day 3: Nice
BP Boston
West Coast By Us: Day 4: There Are Two L's I...
BP Bronx

MORE FROM AUGUST 19, 2009
Premium Article Prospectus Today: The Left Wing
Premium Article Transaction Action: Redemption?
Premium Article Prospectus Hit and Run: Vlad and the Right F...
Premium Article On the Beat: Midweek Update
Under The Knife: All AL

MORE BY KEVIN GOLDSTEIN
2009-08-24 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: August 24
2009-08-21 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog:
2009-08-20 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: August 20
2009-08-19 - Premium Article Future Shock: A Nationals Recovery Plan
2009-08-19 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: August 19
2009-08-18 - Premium Article Future Shock Blog: August 18
2009-08-17 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
More...

MORE FUTURE SHOCK
2009-08-28 - Premium Article Future Shock: Fixing What Ain't Broke
2009-08-25 - Premium Article Future Shock: The Alex Gordon Problem
2009-08-24 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
2009-08-19 - Premium Article Future Shock: A Nationals Recovery Plan
2009-08-17 - Premium Article Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
2009-08-13 - Premium Article Future Shock: Fixing the Draft, Part Two
2009-08-12 - Premium Article Future Shock: Fixing the Draft, Part One
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2009-08-21 - Prospectus Hit List: Patchwork