Printer-friendly

Contact Author

August 13, 2009

Defection Alert

How Good is Aroldis Chapman?

by Clay Davenport

There's been another defection from the land of Castro. Aroldis Chapman is a 21-year-old Cuban emigré—and we're more certain about that than we are for most Cuban players—who walked out of a Dutch hotel in July while playing in a tournament. Given the likelihood of a bidding war as frenzied as the one involving Jose Contreras, he's someone you should have on your radar as a pitcher who may well attract as much interest as the top free agents available to your friendly neighborhood ballclub.

He's a bit of a stringbean at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds, and he throws left-handed, which is always attractive, but what puts him truly over the top is that he throws 100 mph. Here are his actual stats in Cuba for the last four years:

Aroldis Chapman   Born: 9/11/1987 Age: 21   Bats: L  Throws: L  Height: 6'3"  Weight 185
Year Team    Lge   G  GS   IP   H    R  ER  HR  BB  K    W  L SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9   ERA  PBRA
2006 Holguin CBA  15  15  54.0  48  33  26   5  54  56   3  5  0   8.0  0.8  9.0  9.3  4.52  5.19
2007 Holguin CBA  23  12  81.1  59  26  25   4  50 100   4  3  7   6.5  0.4  5.5 11.1  2.90  3.79
2008 Holguin CBA  16  16  74.0  55  36  32   3  37  79   6  7  0   6.7  0.4  4.5  9.6  3.49  3.05
2009 Holguin CBA  22  20 118.1 109  56  53   7  62 130  11  4  0   8.3  0.5  4.7  9.9  3.19  3.17
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Minors   66  63 327.2 271 151 136  19 203 365  24 19  7   7.4  0.5  5.6 10.0  3.74  3.81

That number on the right, PBRA, is a runs-allowed esimator called Pitcher Base-Run Average, and basically evaluates the pitcher's rate of runs allowed by accounting for everything he gives up or generates, interpreted to a league where the average runs-allowed mark is 4.50. The statistics are pretty impressive, but there is a big 'but' you need to know in evaluating them. Holguin is one of the 16 teams that forms Cuba's top league on an island with a population of about 11.5 million. That's only slightly larger than the Dominican Republic (9.5 million), and about the same size as Ohio. They may be baseball-crazy, but that's only about 1/14 the ratio between the US population and major leagues, (300 million for 30 teams), and ignores the fact that the US majors draw from more than just the US, and that many of the best players have left Cuba for the US. We would expect the level of play in the Cuban league to be lower than the US.

By comparing the statistics of players who have left Cuba and come to the US—such as Yuniesky Betancourt, Kendry Morales, and Alexei Ramirez—in terms what they've done there and then once they reach the majors, we can get a good idea of the level of play in Cuba. The changes in their statistics suggests that the Cuban level of play is similar to the Low-A leagues here in the US, so something like the South Atlantic or Midwest leagues.

Alowing for that level of play, here is what those stats translate to as far as a US major league line:

Aroldis Chapman   Born: 9/11/1987 Age: 21   Bats: L  Throws: L  Height: 6'3"  Weight 185
Year Team    Lge   G  GS   IP   H   ER  HR  BB  K    W  L SV   H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9  NERA PBRA
2006 Holguin CBA  15  15  47.1  54  53  19  64  45   1  4  0  10.3  3.6 12.2  8.6  8.75 11.31
2007 Holguin CBA  23  12  69.2  76  63  24  61  88   2  6  6   9.8  3.1  7.9 11.4  5.68  7.75
2008 Holguin CBA  16  16  70.1  64  43  14  45  65   3  5  0   8.2  1.8  5.8  8.3  6.78  6.20
2009 Holguin CBA  22  20 107.1 115  80  25  73 105   4  8  0   9.6  2.1  6.1  8.8  6.29  6.46
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Minors   76  63 294.2 309 239  82 243 303  10 23  6   9.4  2.5  7.4  9.3  6.66  7.60