Under The Knife: Setba... (07/31)
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July 31, 2009 Transaction Analysis BlogDeadline Day Action
Placed LHP Rich Hill on the 15-day DL (shoulder inflammation), retroactive to 7/28; purchased the contract of RHP Chris Tillman from Norfolk (Triple-A); transferred RHP Alfredo Simon from the 15- to the 60-day DL. [7/29] Traded LHP George Sherrill to the Dodgers for 3B-S Josh Bell and RHP Steve Johnson. [7/30] Placed RHP Bradley Bergesen on the 15-day DL; activated RHP Chris Ray from the 15-day DL; recalled RHP Kam Mickolio from Norfolk. [7/31]
BP Comment Quick Links Evan (47) What do you think of the assertion that French and Washburn are basically the same pitcher, only French is younger, chearper, and under team control? Jul 31, 2009 16:19 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) Call me a bit silly, but with the new TA blog format, maybe it'd be a good idea to have two writers working it and not just Christina. There's probably a lot of deadline day articles she's editing and other BP stuff she's doing. Might be a good idea to have some help, or at least, a writer online at night for an evening chat? Jul 31, 2009 16:26 PM BP staff (11) Perhaps the true complication is agreeing to speak at SABR this year, an honor I could hardly refuse, but the timing proved execrable since we're smack-dab in the middle of deadline season. Jul 31, 2009 16:36 PM achaik (22293) I think I disagree. I look at Transaction Analysis as "Christina's analysis." I'm sure we will get analysis from the other authors in their regular spaces, and I guess I value the diversity of views we get with each writer having their own "space" on the site. Jul 31, 2009 16:49 PM joel3green (19524) Absolutely. Jul 31, 2009 19:01 PM Sal Toscano (6947) You're being more than a bit silly Richard. I for one want to read Christina's analysis. Been doing it for years and I don't want it diluted by some other wordsmith in order to meet a deadline. I want to read her unique perspective and I don't care how long it takes her to write it. I dare say that a good many readers feel as I do. Jul 31, 2009 19:03 PM Richard Bergstrom (36532) I love Christina's writing and her writing style. It's truly one of the more entertaining and unique writing styles I've read. I even told her that, in person, I can tell what sections of the BP Annual she has written. Jul 31, 2009 19:11 PM
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
SNWP isn't much of a stat and Washburn isn't much of a pitcher. Wash has a FIP of 3.75 on a 6.4% HR/FB%. Can he sustain that outside Safeco? I don't think he can.
Snell and Wilson were just next year pick ups that the M's saw an opportunity to grab. Snell, in my opinion, is a fantastic deal. He's not much better than this year than 4.25 million, but the upside is there, and if it manifests, those options are golden. Otherwise, the M's are paying back of the rotation money for a back of the rotation starter--no real harm there at all. Wilson is a great defender and not expensive, which solves the M's problems at SS.
But I do love the suggestion, as a Mariners fan, that we're actually better poised to compete in the AL West right now than we were ten days ago. What are the chances of a total pitching collapse in Texas? Can the Angels rotation, held together with duct tape and bubble gum, stay healthy for the rest of the season? Oakland actually sold major talent. Bedard could be back in not oh so very long. Hmmm...
Agreed re: Snell (does it pay to bet against Jack Z.'s instincts and experience? I wouldn't bet against them), but it's interesting that you say what you have about FIP, since it ranks behind QERA in terms of utility and accuracy in suggesting future performance, and perhaps more basically, in a win-now environment such as dealing for Washburn implies, it makes sense for the Tigers to take their chances on someone who's been so much stronger since the half-way point of last season, as reflected by SNWP (which is the *team's* likelihood of winning the games, not the starter's chances of winning a decision).
I think the Mariners wind up winning 80 games or so with what they have, which should still be seen as a successful season given what they've added and subtracted in-season, but that might just be me.
I can't find an exact definition of SNWP. Does it use the pitcher's season-to-date peripherals (like FIP and QERA do) or the pitcher's season-to-date results (e.g. ERA)? If it uses the pitcher's peripherals, then I'm ok with using SNWP to signify a pitcher's ability, but if it uses the pitcher's results, then I agree with philosofool about using FIP or QERA instead.
The site glossary doesn't make it clear, but I believe SNWP (like all BP pitching stats) is run-based. It doesn't adjust for situational luck or quality of defense.
It's not a useless stat, but I would appreciate a stat specifically designed to predict how effective a pitcher would be going forward with a new team, or an average team.
Put quite simply SNWP is SNW/GS.
Glossary Entry for SNWP:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=435
Glossary Entry for SNW:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=161
I believe the original essay on the SN family of stats was in the 2002 annual, but much has been written on the site over the years about SNVA, SNLVAR and the other related stats for starters.
It would be nice if the glossary actually said that SNWP = SNW/GS.
This is sort of a general philosophical quibble, but I thought the point of the glossary was to make it so that readers didn't have to search the archive or own the annuals in order to understand a stat, at least roughly.
None of the glossary entries on the SNW family of stats say anything about what they are based on, and only one or two explain relationships among them. The 'details' link for each entry gives the same text as the main entry. And some of those entries can be misinterpreted -- for example, SNVA says "wins above average added by the pitcher's performance", when it's actually based on the runs allowed (which BP correctly tells us is not just pitching performance, but also defense and luck of the timing).
As I said, just a quibble -- but it's why pointing to the glossary is not an answer to berkm3 in this case.