Rickey Henderson‘s much-anticipated Hall of Fame induction speech may have disappointed those who yearned for a proclamation of all-time greatness, perhaps accompanied by a bronze plaque hoisted high overhead. Instead, Henderson took his place among the game’s greats with a performance on Sunday that balanced humor and humility, with nary a third-person reference to be heard.
In honor of Henderson’s enshrinement, I’ve got a few Rickey-related items to share, starting with a pair of follow-ups to last Friday’s piece, which endeavored to find the active players whose statistical signature bore the most resemblance to Henderson. Among the questions asked by readers and colleagues was one posed by managing editor Christina Kahrl (among others), who asked for the identity of the anti-Rickey. In other words, the active player whose translated stats in 10 key categories-the triple-slash hitting categories, Equivalent Average, Equivalent Baserunning Runs, walks per plate appearance, Power-Speed Number, runs per time on base, stolen-base percentage, and stolen bases per time on base, all expressed in terms of a 650 PA season-bore the least resemblance to Henderson.
As you’d expect, the answer is a catcher, and in fact seven of the 10 players most antipodal to Henderson are backstops:
Player AVG/ OBP/ SLG EqA EqBRR BB/PA P/S R%/TOB SB% SBA/TOB Points Rickey Henderson .287/.406/.476 .316 5.1 16.0% 31.2 43.7% 80.4% 33.2% 10000 Jason Kendall .243/.320/.314 .232 -0.4 8.2% 3.1 26.4% 57.3% 4.4% 2774 John Buck .214/.298/.408 .253 -2.9 9.6% 0.0 35.0% 0.0% 1.6% 2813 Dioner Navarro .247/.295/.368 .247 -3.7 5.6% 4.8 33.4% 45.3% 3.7% 2878 Bengie Molina .278/.299/.453 .257 -5.3 2.5% 0.0 30.0% n/a 0.0% 2922 Rich Aurilia .257/.306/.373 .244 -1.7 6.5% 1.3 29.3% 50.0% 0.7% 2937 Brian Schneider .246/.336/.375 .252 -1.8 11.7% 0.0 22.4% n/a 0.0% 2966 Ramon Hernandez .253/.322/.392 .257 -4.1 8.5% 2.1 27.6% 45.5% 1.3% 2931 Bill Hall .227/.288/.395 .240 -0.4 7.7% 7.0 38.0% 37.6% 6.7% 3263 Pedro Feliz .271/.317/.422 .252 -3.1 6.4% 0.6 32.3% 25.0% 0.6% 3335 Jason Varitek .225/.333/.421 .267 -3.0 12.9% 0.0 30.1% 0.0% 0.6% 3345
In a very close race-one that could have been timed with a sundial, no doubt-the Brewers‘ Jason Kendall finishes as the anti-Rickey, a rather ironic result given his status as the only catcher ever to steal 20 bases three years in a row. Kendall was once an above-average baserunner and a high-percentage basestealer (48-for-56 in 1998-1999) with a moderate amount of sock, but after a severe broken ankle and years of heavy usage behind the plate, he’s got exactly none of those things going for him anymore; his bat is basically replacement level at this point. Though he doesn’t zero out in any category, he scores less than 100 points (out of 1,000) in four of them, and more than 500 points only for Equivalent Baserunning Runs. The runner-up-and I use that term loosely-is the Royals‘ John Buck. While all of the catchers here are below-average baserunners who rarely (if ever) steal, Buck’s low batting average gives him a critical leg up on the competition; he scores just 70 points in that category, where Hall and Varitek are the only others below 300 points.
Still, it’s tempting to give Bengie Molina the title of the real anti-Rickey despite the fact that he ranks fourth here. Whereas many of the slow-footed backstops here can actually take ball four, thereby following the Ventures’ advice, Molina ranks dead last in walks per plate appearance while also zeroing out in the three stolen base-related categories, where he ties for last in all of them. Alas, his batting average and slugging percentages are relatively good matches for Henderson, both worth nearly 900 points, costing him the title.
The more commonly asked question was which player in history most resembles Henderson, a trickier matter to answer. For one thing, our Equivalent Baserunning data only covers the Retrosheet era, which in our database goes back to 1954 (the addition of earlier seasons is pending). For another, data for times caught stealing is only sporadically available before 1950. Clay Davenport does have translated caught-stealing totals for players throughout baseball history, but -and I may be missing something here in the details-it appears he’s based those totals on the questionable assumption of a success rate around 66 percent across the board. For example, for the years that we have caught-stealing data for Max Carey (1915-1916 and 1920-1925), his translated stolen base rate is a stellar 80.8 percent; he actually went 51-for-53 in 1922. For the rest of his career (1910-1929 minus the aforementioned stretches), his rate is just 66.2 percent.
Thus it’s necessary to split the players into two groups to answer the historical question, one for whom we have data for all 10 categories, the other for whom we must dispense with EqBRR and stolen base percentage, and modify the stolen-base attempts per time on base category to simply steals per time on base. In the end, I only ran the numbers for a select handful of players culled from the all-time hit, stolen base, and Power-Speed Number leaderboards, plus a few others who came to mind, and I can’t swear that I haven’t missed somebody. For the pre-Retrosheet era:
Player AVG/ OBP/ SLG EqA BB/PA P/S R%/TOB SB/TOB Points Rickey Henderson .287/.406/.476 .316 16.0% 31.2 43.7% 33.2% 8000 Kiki Cuyler .293/.370/.500 .291 9.5% 26.5 41.9% 18.0% 6432 Billy Hamilton .309/.428/.456 .305 16.2% 19.1 36.1% 17.8% 6057 Max Carey .265/.352/.420 .272 11.2% 20.0 41.6% 22.9% 5840 Eddie Collins .331/.421/.509 .311 12.8% 22.9 37.4% 16.2% 5588 Honus Wagner .320/.390/.579 .311 9.2% 32.1 41.0% 15.4% 5471 Sam Rice .298/.351/.448 .275 6.8% 16.5 40.0% 12.4% 5258 Richie Ashburn .314/.401/.413 .288 12.1% 5.7 36.9% 9.2% 5102 Sam Crawford .304/.364/.554 .301 8.4% 18.7 39.8% 6.5% 4926 Tris Speaker .325/.409/.574 .320 11.6% 22.3 38.9% 7.6% 4919 Paul Waner .313/.394/.513 .305 11.4% 9.9 37.4% 2.8% 4862 Ty Cobb .356/.424/.618 .330 9.8% 33.8 42.6% 17.2% 4680
To the extent that we can determine without a fuller accounting of baserunning data, Cuyler gets the nod for the player most statistically similar to Henderson, though his walk rate wasn’t quite up to snuff. A Hall of Fame outfielder who spent most of his 18 seasons (1921-1939) with the Pirates and Cubs, he led the NL in stolen bases four times while finishing second twice, led the league in scoring twice, and cracked the league’s top 10 in OBP five times. Sliding Billy Hamilton, a 19th-century star who held the all-time stolen-base lead (912) from 1897 until 1978 (when Lou Brock broke his record), finishes a distant second; a tip of the cap to reader Dr. Dave, who offered his name as a guess in the comments to the original piece while correctly noting that Cobb and Wagner gain too much power via the translations to be ideal matches.
Turning to the Retrosheet era, while Tim Raines was a common guess for the most Rickey-like, it’s surprising that nobody identified the runaway leader:
Player AVG/ OBP/ SLG EqA EqBRR BB/PA P/S R%/TOB SB% SBA/TOB Points Rickey Henderson .287/.406/.476 .316 5.1 16.0% 31.2 43.7% 80.4% 33.2% 10000 Joe Morgan .287/.409/.511 .314 3.0 16.6% 30.4 40.2% 81.3% 19.7% 8621 Davey Lopes .271/.357/.444 .284 6.8 11.2% 27.6 42.1% 82.7% 26.1% 8287 Tim Raines .305/.397/.488 .309 6.5 12.7% 24.8 40.9% 83.8% 22.4% 8264 Kenny Lofton .294/.367/.426 .286 4.1 9.8% 16.1 43.5% 78.5% 28.3% 8132 Eric Davis .270/.362/.531 .301 4.6 12.0% 34.4 44.8% 82.5% 19.6% 8013 Lou Brock .300/.353/.459 .281 1.8 6.9% 22.1 43.9% 77.1% 33.8% 8004 Craig Biggio .282/.364/.472 .285 2.1 9.2% 21.4 43.1% 75.1% 13.5% 7833 Bobby Bonds .269/.357/.532 .299 1.8 11.1% 35.7 47.3% 74.8% 24.6% 7634 Roberto Alomar .300/.372/.456 .294 2.0 9.7% 20.1 39.0% 80.1% 17.2% 7618 Paul Molitor .305/.370/.473 .299 4.3 8.8% 19.7 39.6% 79.5% 14.3% 7576
Via the translations, Morgan winds up as an excellent match for Henderson, scoring well above 900 points in five different categories, and below 800 only in stolen-base attempt frequency. Lopes is a surprising second, edging out Raines. One of the great high-percentage basestealers of all time, he once set major league record with 38 consecutive steals, and it’s no coincidence that the 2007 and 2008 Phillies, two teams for whom he was the first-base coach, rank first and fourth in our database in Equivalent Stolen Base Runs, and ninth and 10th in EqBRR. The man could read a pitcher’s move, to say the least. As for Raines, who didn’t walk or steal quite as often as Henderson but who was a better baserunner (more on that momentarily), with Henderson’s admission to Cooperstown now a done deal, it’s worth a reminder that he’s eminently worthy of election to the Hall.
The point totals of Lopes and Raines are slightly less than those of active leader Brian Roberts (8,291), but that’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison, as the old-timers’ numbers incorporate their lengthy decline phases. Still, with a half-dozen retired players topping the 8,000 mark, compared to just two active (Roberts and B.J. Upton), it’s fair to say that previous eras saw players more similar to Henderson than the current one. He is indeed a throwback.
Moving beyond the translated stats to actual stuff that happened, it’s worth sharing a few Henderson-related leaderboards that are otherwise hard to come by. That Henderson holds the all-time stolen-base record with 1,406 is common knowledge, but where his 80.8 percent success rate ranks among the stolen-base percentage leaders isn’t. The lack of consistent data before 1950 excludes from consideration the players from the era when the stolen base was at its most common; six of the all-time top 10 thieves are thus disqualified. With that caveat, here’s the top 30 among players with at least 300 attempts whose careers began after 1950:
Player SB CS % Carlos Beltran 286 38 88.3% Tim Raines 808 146 84.7% Eric Davis 349 66 84.1% Willie Wilson 668 134 83.3% Barry Larkin 379 77 83.1% Tony Womack 363 74 83.1% Davey Lopes 557 114 83.0% Carl Crawford 349 72 82.9% Jimmy Rollins 312 69 81.9% Ichiro Suzuki 336 76 81.6% Julio Cruz 343 78 81.5% Brian Hunter 260 61 81.0% Joe Morgan 689 162 81.0% Alex Rodriguez 289 68 81.0% Vince Coleman 752 177 80.9% Rickey Henderson 1406 335 80.8% Dave Roberts 243 58 80.7% Roberto Alomar 474 114 80.6% Jose Reyes 301 75 80.1% Brian Roberts 246 62 79.9% Lenny Dykstra 285 72 79.8% Ozzie Smith 580 148 79.7% Kenny Lofton 622 160 79.5% Gary Redus 322 83 79.5% Johnny Damon 370 96 79.4% Paul Molitor 504 131 79.4% Luis Aparicio 506 136 78.8% Derek Jeter 293 79 78.8% Marquis Grissom 429 116 78.7% Amos Otis 341 93 78.6%
Henderson ranks 16th among those with at least 300 attempts, but the crowd thins out quickly if the bar is raised; he’s sixth among those with at least 500 attempts behind Raines, Wilson, Lopes, Morgan and Coleman, one of just seven such players with a success rate above 80 percent.
What’s interesting is that for all of Henderson’s success in swiping bags, he only ranks third among Retrosheet-era players in terms of Equivalent Stolen Base Runs, the net value of those steals based upon the methodology developed by Dan Fox:
Player EqSBR
Tim Raines 66.7
Willie Wilson 57.3
Rickey Henderson 41.2
Davey Lopes 39.1
Vince Coleman 38.6
Joe Morgan 33.9
Paul Molitor 32.2
Carl Crawford 23.5
Eric Davis 22.8
Johnny Damon 20.7
Raines’ success in stealing was worth about an extra two and a half wins relative to Henderson, though that boils down to just 1.3 runs per 650 plate appearances. Henderson, still by far the more valuable of the two, makes up ground elsewhere on the basepaths according EqBRR, which measures the additional runs a player adds via advancing on ground balls, fly balls, hits, wild pitches, passed balls, and balks as well as stolen bases. With the data again limited to the Retrosheet era, Henderson just misses topping this category by a hair:
Player EQBRR Willie Wilson 107.8 Rickey Henderson 106.8 Tim Raines 104.4 Paul Molitor 79.5 Davey Lopes 77.0 Johnny Damon 66.9 Vince Coleman 66.5 Luis Aparicio 66.2 Willie Davis 61.1 Kenny Lofton 58.5 Ozzie Smith 58.1 Barry Larkin 56.7 Robin Yount 55.5 Mookie Wilson 54.0 Joe Morgan 52.3 Otis Nixon 49.2 Ron LeFlore 46.7 Len Dykstra 45.5 Juan Pierre 44.8 Marquis Grissom 44.3 Willie Mays 44.1* *: data for 1951-1952 unavailable
Exactly one run separates Henderson and Willie Wilson, a contemporary who led the league in stolen bases in Henderson’s rookie year (1979) with 83. A burner who was virtually impossible to catch on the bases (off the field was another matter), Wilson topped 30 steals for 11 straight years (1978-1988) and was never caught more than 12 times in a year. He went 162-for-184 in steals in 1979-1980, setting an AL record with 28 straight in the latter year.
Wilson wasn’t as well-rounded a player as Henderson, however; he finishes 13th in the similarity test with 6,710 points mainly due to a lack of power and a low walk rate. Indeed, the take-home lesson of Henderson’s career is that speedsters come and speedsters go, but nobody offered quite the well-rounded package of that Henderson did-speed, baserunning ability, power, and plate discipline. Rickey doesn’t have to refer to himself in the third person to assure that we’ll be celebrating his accomplishments for a long, long time.
Thank you for reading
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This doesn't seem right to me. Surely there wouldn't often be more than two players above 8,000 if we looked at all players who were active in a given season and took all of their stats to that point (the way you did with current players on Friday)? Sure, there are more players over 8,000 who are no longer active than those still playing, but we're drawing from a much, much bigger pool.
*tosses Phillips's baseball card into the "good not great" bin next to a tear-stained Andre Dawson rookie card*