On the Beat: Run-hunti... (07/01)
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July 2, 2009 Future ShockRepresent!
After yesterday's review of dream-crushing evaluations, let's accentuate the positive and look at some players that are generating more glowing reactions from scouts.
Few prospects have had a more impressive return from Tommy John surgery than Phillies righty Kyle Drabek. With much cleaner mechanics and better control, the 2006 first-round pick had a 2.48 ERA in 10 appearances for High-A Clearwater, and actually pitched better than that, striking out 74 in 61 One scout who recently saw him there walked away impressed, observing, "He's significantly smoother now, and I really like him; he's going 95-96 mph in the first inning, and that curveball is a big-time hammer with a great arm stroke." Drabek's smallish frame and injury history contribute to the trouble many have figuring out exactly which direction his path will take him, but the scout saw him succeeding in a variety of roles. "He really could be anything," the scout surmised, "I could see him starting, I could see him relieving... he could have a lot of different careers, but they're all good ones." White Sox center fielder Jordan Danks never lived up to expectations at the University of Texas, but after receiving an over-slot $525,000 bonus as a seventh-round pick last June, he's almost been a revelation. He was initially batting .322/.409/.525 at High-A Winston-Salem, and has since had little trouble adjusting to more advanced pitching at Double-A, posting a .308/.387/.442 line for Birmingham before being sidelined with a wrist injury. "I came away impressed with him," said one scout, "he reminded me of Jordan Schafer with a little less power and a little more hitability," he added, while adding praise for Danks' overall game. "He plays a very good center field, he works the counts, he does all of the little things; he's an everyday big leaguer for sure."
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
Have you heard anything recently from scouts about Jesus Montero?
And I'm actually more interested in the defensive stuff. The batting line speaks for itself.
The defense isn't good still. He's slow and sluggish behind the plate, his arm is below average and made even worse by a slow release. Teams are running wild on him; he's thrown out 15 of 89 stolen base attempts, and that's 89 attempts in just 40 games.
If he was even an average defensive catcher, how high in the rankings would he be? top 15? if he was a great defensive catcher?
who cares? he's neither of those
Obviously I care. Though I must have forgotten the rule where you can never ever pretend or imagine anything. And it certainly wouldn't help us further gauge how much his poor defense is hurting his elite prospect status, and how much value will be lost if he can't become a passable catcher and has to move to first/dh. You're right. Horribly pointless question on my part. They may as well cancel my subscription on me.
Player A: Career batting line of .272/.397/.451
Player B: Career batting line of .277/.379/.478
Both around .850 OPS. Player A = 1B. Player B = C. Player B = immensely more valuable.
(Nick Johnson and Jorge Posada)
That's not exactly a good comparison because what separates the value of those two even more is that Posada was a paradigm of health during his peak years, never once landing on the DL until last year and then again this year at the end of his career. Nick Johnson on the other hand was born on the DL.
Here's why someone cares: if he sorts out his defensive issues, we want to know how good that makes him.
You can't sort out being huge.
Right.
Hey, Kevin, If Montero was even an average defensive SHORTSTOP, how high in the rankings would he be? top 15? if he was a great defensive SHORTSTOP?
What if he could throw 100 mph and fart lightning bolts??
it was just a fucking question. if you don't want to know the answer don't read the comments. I was simply trying to see how much his awful defense was hurting his prospect status. being the #38 prospect at 19 with no glove is pretty damn impressive. fuck off.
I owm him in a Scoresheet league and had already written him off as a catcher. (I also own Wieters.) That may be premature, but doesn't sound like it by Kevin's observation. If only the Yankees had another decent catching prospect (do they?), they would have already found Montero another position to play - or they will just concede that he is a DH-to-be. Yes, being a DH takes a great deal away from his value to a fantasy team, but I'm betting his hitting will have such an impact that he's worth saving as a DH. If he catches, that's a bonus.
They do have another solid catching prospect - Austin Romine. Pretty solid all around. Kevin has previously called him their catcher of the future.
Ouch.