Notice: Trying to get property 'display_name' of non-object in /var/www/html/wp-content/plugins/wordpress-seo/src/generators/schema/article.php on line 52
keyboard_arrow_uptop

Baseball games in late June should almost never be considered pivotal – especially interleague baseball games. Yet to the ever-anxious fans of Chicago’s north side baseball team, circumstances conspired to make Thursday’s match-up between their star-crossed Cubs and the streaking Detroit Tigers take on an air of unusual importance.

Much like a crew of becalmed 18th century sailors, the Cubs seem to be stuck in the doldrums. The odds-on preseason NL Central favorites have seen their record stall in the vicinity of .500 – an injury to slugging third baseman Aramis Ramirez and an 8-game losing streak in late May knocked the wind from their sails, and since that time the Cubs have never been more than three games above or one game below the break-even mark. Despite trailing St. Louis by only 3.5 games in a division that no one seems to be working too hard to win, an all-too-familiar midsummer angst has begun to descend on Wrigleyville. After Wednesday night’s sloppy 5-3 loss to the Tigers that left the Cubs sitting at 34-34, manager Lou Piniella half-kiddingly considered pulling names out of a hat to set his lineup as a way to shake his players out of their offensive lethargy.

Conversely, the Tigers seem to have caught their second wind. After beating the Cardinals in St. Louis on June 18th to end a four-game road slide, the Tigers returned to Comerica and opened an institutional-sized container of Whoop-Ass Au Gratin on the other NL Central contenders, taking three straight from the Brewers and the first two games of their series against the Cubs in dramatic style. Tuesday’s win featured a walk-off pinch-homer off Cubs closer Kevin Gregg, after Tigers skipper Jim Leyland made the rare* decision to eschew the standard platoon advantage and pinch-hit for lefty Josh Anderson with the righty-swinging Ryan Raburn, on the theory that Gregg only throws his occasionally dodgy slider to righties. Sure enough, Gregg hung one, Raburn parked it, and Leyland looked like a genuine Match Game genius – that’s the sort of thing that happens when things are going your way. Currently sporting a 5-game lead in a heretofore lackluster AL Central, Detroit has a spring in their step befitting a team humming along on all cyllinders.


*How rare? Out of 1,322 pinch-hit appearances in late (7+ inning) and close (within 3) games so far in 2009, only 18 featured a same-side hitter batting for an opposite-side position player, and of those 14 were replacing a switch-hitter batting on his weaker side, two were resting superstars (Evan Longoria and Miguel Cabrera) tapped to pinch-hit, one was Ryan Garko hitting for Luis Valbuena, and one was Ryan Raburn hitting for Josh Anderson.

Given all this, Thursday’s Tigers-Cubs tilt in Detroit had the feel of a game the visitors “needed” to win more than the home team, if only for their emotional well-being. Admittedly “need” isn’t particularly useful in determining who should win a midseason baseball game – but starting pitching often is, and in Thursday’s game everything pointed the Cubs’ way. Ted Lilly was taking his 1.98 June ERA to the mound for the visitors, while the home team was trotting out Armando Galarraga, winless in his last 10 starts. With the Cubs hoping to break out of their slump and go into the upcoming weekend’s always emotional Crosstown Classic series with the White Sox on a winning note, this seemed like the perfect setup to accomplish it..

Early on, Galarraga seemed more than happy to oblige. The right-hander surrendered a first pitch double to Cubs leadoff man Alfonso Soriano on a low, inside sinker – a bad choice, since that’s the only pitch the slumping Fonzie can handle lately – then walked Ryan Theriot (who was trying to bunt) on 5 pitches. Two batters later Jake Fox lofted a Galarraga offering into the left-field bleachers for his first career home run, giving Chicago an early 3-0 lead – and ending a team-wide 1-for-29 streak with runners in scoring position. With Galarraga struggling to hit his spots in front of a Tiger bullpen that had seen heavy use in the first two games of the series, the Cubs looked to be in good shape to start rehabilitating their self-image.

Lilly got off to his typically strong start, with only a 0-run home run by Miguel Cabrera marring his first two frames. You may well ask how Cabrera managed such a feat – well, it’s because the umpiring crew appeared to be lost in the doldrums as well. Cabrera launched a drive to the wall in right center which Cub right fielder Micah Hoffpaiur made an awkward leap towards, but the ball hit above his mitt and caromed back into play as Cabrera loped into second with a double. Replay clearly showed the ball hit a metal railing above the wall – making it a home run – but the umpires never considered stopping to check the tape.

With that in mind, let’s pause for a second to discuss this question: Why can’t umpires just do their job? I’m not talking about making an incorrect call on a bang-bang play – that’s understandable, and in general umps perform those difficult tasks quite well. But not bothering to make use of all the fancy new toys MLB has endowed them with to review Cabrera’s home run is inexcusable, and is only Exhibit A in the case against the umpiring in this series — Tim McClelland’s crew irked me on several other occasions as well.

Exhibit B: On Tuesday, we were treated to McClelland’s leisurely strike calls behind the plate – maybe it’s just me, but refusing to speed up your strike call mechanic so that the fans who pay your salary, and the players which the fans pay to see, won’t have to wonder whether the count is really 2-1 or 1-2 seems wilfully arrogant.

Exhibit C: Tuesday’s box score also shows that Josh Anderson was picked off first base – except he wasn’t. Anderson had broken towards second too early on a hit-and-run play, and Carlos Zambrano whipped a throw to first that easily beat Anderson to the bag. But Anderson executed a terrific bait-and-switch slide – reaching towards the bag with his right hand to draw Derrek Lee‘s tag, then pulling it back while grabbing the bag with his left. Replays clearly showed Lee’s chest-high tag came after Anderson was a-hugging first, yet umpire Andy Fletcher rang him up anyway. You see this all the time, where umps call players out if the ball beats the player to the bag, regardless of the tag. If the tag isn’t important, MLB should make all baserunning plays force plays – but unless that changes, umpires should at least actually ensure a tag takes place.

There’s this thing in baseball called a rulebook. Learn it. Know it. Live it.

Anyway, after lethargy had ridden to the Cubs’ rescue on Cabrera’s “double”, Chicago was threatening in the top of the third when Alfonso Soriano displayed Reason #1286 why he is one of the most frustrating players ever to don Cubbie blue: his repeated bouts of baseball narcolepsy. After a bloop single to left, Soriano was nearly picked off first by catcher Dusty Ryan‘s snap throw. Soriano went in standing up – not the first time he’s done that on a close play – and a good tag would have had him, but he was called safe. Shortly thereafter, Lee smashed a searing line drive towards the left field alley, which Raburn gloved on the track. Soriano had already rounded second when Raburn made the play, so after the catch he started walking, then trotting, back towards first. By my count it took more than 4 seconds for Soriano to actually decide he ought to run back to first – but by then it was too late, as he was easily doubled-up to end the inning.

Soriano’s blunders must have awoken the slumbering hands of Fate, because it didn’t take them long to grab a wrench and start loosening the Cubs’ lugnuts. Galarraga settled down, while Lilly started catching too much of the plate and the Tigers made him pay. First Ramon Santiago launched a 2-run blast in the bottom of the 3rd, and then the recently-shorn Magglio Ordonez discovered a new way to let his freak flag fly by going deep for the first time since late April, giving Detroit the lead. Seemingly before you could say “Wake up, Alfonso!”, the Cubs had lost their 4th in a row and the Tigers had won their 7th. Ouch.

It’s losses like these, where your opponent takes advantage of every misstep, where bit-part players or the slump-ridden suddenly rise up to beat you, that feed a fatalistic view of a team’s future – especially when that team has gone a solid century without winning a title. With the Cubs a game under .500 and riding a 4-game losing streak, fans may already be inching out onto their customary ledge.

Yet there are a few reasons why there’s no need for Cubs fans to panic – at least not yet:

  1. One game is just one game – they’ll get to play 93 more. Momentum, especially of the “big win” or “tough loss” variety, is often illusory – note how the Cubs’ late-game heroics against the White Sox and Indians in wins last week counted for precisely squat this week.

  2. Their starting pitching has been stellar, and the bullpen has been better of late. If you believe Earl Weaver’s aphorism that momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher, the Cubs rotation seems well equipped to make a run.

  3. Even after losing a game they had every reason to expect to win, Thursday losses by the Cardinals and Brewers leave the Cubs only 3.5 games back as I write this.

  4. BP’s Adjusted Standings Report shows the Cubs with roughly the same actual, second-order and third-order wins – right around break-even. This means that while the Cubs haven’t been particularly unlucky in the win-loss column, at least they haven’t been particularly lucky either – they’ve truly played like a .500 ball club.

  5. While the offense continues to struggle, they’ve managed to stay in the race and around .500 with only 13 ABs since late April from their best hitter (Aramis Ramirez). Several key veterans (I’m looking at you, Fonzie) are performing well below their established level, and the Cubs are posting a .663 OPS with runners in scoring position – 60 points below their overall line, the biggest disparity in all of baseball. It’s reasonable to expect some of this to improve.

  6. The Cubs can’t break your heart in June if they’re already planning to break your heart in October.

On July 2nd, the Cubs will start an 11-game homestand that includes four games against both the Brewers and the Cardinals. If the Cubs are able to make up some ground with head-to-head wins in those series, they may be able to sail out of the doldrums and into the All-Star break with a clear course ahead of them. If not, they may be doomed to continue their aimless wandering, sharing their ancient tale of woe with whomever is unfortunate enough to listen.


Thanks to Bil Burke for providing pinch-hitting data on extremely short notice.

Thank you for reading

This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.

Subscribe now
You need to be logged in to comment. Login or Subscribe
ckahrl
6/27
I think that the problem here is that the sum is less than its parts. Where Ken did several things that I like to see--like his practical observations on the problems with umpiring, or taking the initiative to make a data request, note all of the reasons to not get hung up on the outcome of a single game--he almost loses any narrative of the game itself in the process of moving between the things he's having fun talking about. This can be a great thing in a friend sitting next to you in a seat at this game, or from an announcer dealing with the tedium of a blowout or a rain delay; it doesn't really make for a great game story, however, instead leaving us with a disjointed but at times thoughtful and entertaining piece.
wcarroll
6/28
Ken's got a unique style and no matter the topic, it's clearly his. When Sinatra sang a song, it was always Sinatra. The thing I noticed about this piece was that there's a lot of blue -- go look back, then glance at any of the other pieces this week. Look at his pieces from other weeks. It's not just links, but it's the use of names that's somehow dense than anyone short of Jaffe's Hit List. This is neither good nor bad, just noticeable. Kind of like this piece. It's neither good nor bad, just another piece with Ken's unique style. It's very much like Steven Goldman in that you love it unabashedly or it's just not for you, but you can always admire that the workmanship is there, even on short notice.
kgoldstein
6/28
I really liked this as almost a sit down with the game and just let the stream of consciousness flow. Like Matt, it's a hard thing to get away with unless it's really done right, and Ken is really the right guy for this direction. Very nice job.
strupp
6/28
This is the first entry I got to read this week, and my quick reaction was more KG than Will and CK. Knowing what the topic was this week, I've readied myself to read 5 recaps that might not really differentiate from each other too much.

I liked the stream of consciousness (as KG put it) for this reason. I like the humour. I like the tangents (it's an interleague baseball game in late June. If it was Cubs/Cards or Tigers/Sox etc, it takes a little more importance, but not really). But most importantly, I *LOVED* that when he made a note with an *, the accompanying note was right below the paragraph so I didn't have to follow down to the end of the article.

I guess the one thing that didn't work for me was the bitching about the umpires, the tag play in particular. That's a play that is called the same way each time, and for both teams throughout a season, that I'm not sure if the effort and time (and word count used) to gripe about it is worth it in the long run.

I'm still tetering on the thumbs up/down... but I'd imagine this will get the thumbs up and might be the best of the week just because of the irreverance. Plus, Match Game reference.
deepblue64
6/28
I was a bit worried that we would have a really boring week but I've been impressed this week, Ken brings his own unique style to this piece and I thoroughly enjoyed it.
Oleoay
6/28
This is the first article I read this week and overall I liked it. I did find the umpire digression distracting (and perhaps a bit unprofessional for an aspiring professional writer?) but I imagine that could be tightened up with some editing. I loved all the observations, especially the asterisk paragraph...

I am a big Cubs fan and with all the links I was wondering why there wasn't a link to Pinella's discussion of pulling lineup names out of a hat. Also, the Cubs are a bit infamous among their fan base for their June swoons and since there were no mention of the swoons, I was left a bit with the impression that Ken was trying to sound like a Cub fan without actually being a Cub fan. Still, that's just a nitpick.

Overall, I found it very entertaining, informative and a good piece on such a tight deadline.
DrDave
6/28
I'm confused about why you think umpires should get a free pass when they fail to make the routine plays. TIVO and Pitch f/x and such are going to bring umpiring more and more into the spotlight in the next few years; how MLB reacts to that is going to be prime fodder for BP and other outsider sites.
Oleoay
6/29
I don't think umpires should get a free pass. But the tone went a bit overboard a few times, and drew the generalization that all umpires are like McClelland. I just thought it could be presented differently without such a dismissive/disrespectful tone.
kenfunck
6/28
Probably more a case of being a Cubs fan (which I am), but trying too hard not to sound like one.
Oleoay
6/29
This was my favorite article overall this week and gets my thumbs up.
flakes98
6/28
My only nitpick is that the "Rime of the Ancient Mariner" page didn't have a link to Gaylord Perry. But you can't blame British Rail for that.
kenfunck
6/28
Unless the link deposited you in Ipswitch.
DrDave
6/28
This entry needs Ritalin. There's probably a pretty good column scattered in there somewhere.

Loved the pinch-hitting stat, and kudos for getting it on such a tight deadline.
molnar
6/28
How was "a crew of becalmed 18th century sailors" not a link to a youtube of the Muppets singing "Cabin Fever"?
brownsugar
6/28
I agree with Dr. Dave's comment that the article was a bit all over the place...but the thing is, I really enjoyed the hell out of it. In the hands of a less entertaining writer, the bouncing from topic to topic would be distracting, but Ken makes it an entertaining read.

And normally, I don't click through hyperlinked text too often, but I've learned that Ken's are often hilarious. As soon as I get to work tomorrow, I'm printing off that picture of Charles Nelson Riley and Richard Dawson and hanging it next to this picture: http://www.users.on.net/~mnelson/coleman_hasselhoff.jpg.

Thumbs up from me.
kenfunck
6/28
Wow, that's a classic. And talk about an odd forced perspective -- who photoshopped Manute Bol's legs onto David Hasselhoff's torso?
frqtflyr
6/28
Have to agree with the yea-sayers. Some might find Ken's tangential tendencies a stylistic albatross, but I don't. Much like Matt, he's one of the few writers in this contest to display a unique voice, as well as an ability to think outside the box. Also like Matt, his knowledge is encyclopedic -- and not merely about baseball. Kudos to all the pop-cultural references (and cultural, period, as with Coleridge). Being a stathead and entertaining writer should not be mutually exclusive.

Matt, if you're reading, please consider an endorsement of your own work, both this week and throughout the competition.

And Ken, vis a vis your responses. As an editor and writer, I'm just as anal as Christina. I've refrained from comment on egregious errors, but it's Ipswich not Ipswitch. Though the town IS memorable for the preponderance of wickedly witchy jokes about its populace, especially the gals. Q: What does an Ipswich girl use for protection during sex? A: A bus shelter
kenfunck
6/28
Thanks for dropping in an "albatross" reference! After putting in the Coleridge link, it took a lot of uncharacteristic self-restraint not to use that particular metaphor for fear of pushing it too far (especially in the Soriano section). Now that it's shown up in the comments, I feel much better.
jrmayne
6/28
I thought this was a particularly nice, breezy stylized discussion of the game, with jumping-off points that seemed unforced. One of my two thumbs-up pieces this week.

--JRM
jimnabby
6/28
Wow, you stole my comment exactly, including your vote count.
lynchjm
6/28
Ken... Will only likes the blue when it takes you to pictures of hot girls, because they add a lot to the material.
wcarroll
6/29
Touche.

Lawnchairfan
6/29
The style reminds me somewhat of this guy named Posnanski. Anyone that doesn't like a little easy-going ride injected with humor is... simply a doldrum. Great job on a task that couldn't have been easy.
davidpom50
6/29
I too thought of Joe Posnanski while reading this - it was probably the asterisked footnote that took my mind in that direction, but the overall style is similar. Posnanski is my absolute favorite non-BP sports writer, so that's high praise from me. Great job, Ken.
Olinkapo
6/29
Of all the people who would use the phrase "hands of fate," I thought for sure Ken would be the one to provide us a link to one of the greatest film of all time:

"Manos: The Hands of Fate"

Aside from this unfortunate and disappointing oversight, I very much enjoyed this one. I'll be giving it the thumbs up, even at the risk of angering Manos.
kenfunck
6/29
Sorry to disappoint ... I did an MST3K link last week (Petey Plane), and didn't want to go to that well too often. But once again you've managed to add something in the comments that I thought about, but didn't, put in the article itself. You guys rule! (Well, okay, Torgo rules, but you're pretty good too.)
Oleoay
6/29
Hey I had a MST3K quote in the Week 2 Hit List;)
rockrobster
6/29
It's taken me a while to reach a firm conclusion on this, but Funck is definitely my favorite in the competition as a whole. Certainly he's the one I'd be the most sorry to see go. He's got the most distinctive and freshest voice, and he's got substance to back up the style.

DrDave
6/30
Yep. Thumb up on momentum, given that it was borderline for me otherwise.
Mountainhawk
6/29
I don't generally like Ken's style, but this article is pretty well done and getting the PH stat when you only have a few hours to write the story is almost impressive enough to get the thumbs up all by itself.

And I agree with you on the umpiring. To me, baseball is easily the easiest of the four major sports to officiate, and other than the NFL (who are part time), the MLB umpires seem to have the most trouble with the basic calls.
hotstatrat
6/29
Ken wins this week's competition. Only those who come to BP purely for statistical analysis might have been disappointed. There was nothing here to help them win their fantasy contests. Hey, initially, I'm one of those guys. However, Ken did use some math to make an interesting point about same sided pinch hitting.

My only complaint is that he should have skipped the "no need for Cubs fans to panic" section. I don't think even any Cubs fans needed to have those things pointed out, nor were the rest of us entertained by it.

The rest of the article was an entertaining joy to read with no bull. Ken is really hitting his stride.

By the way, Billy Martin did pull the Tiger's line-up out of a hat in the early 70s once. I think it ended up with their no. 8 hitter Ed Brinkman clean-up and one of their most powerful hitters - Norm Cash or Willie Horton - batting lead-off. I do recall they won the game scoring a happy number of runs.
newsense
6/29
I found the article very readable but one thing threw me off stride: Did Leyland ask the umps to look at a replay of Cabrera's "home run"? That's an important detail. If he did, then the umps' refusal is a travesty. If he didn't then it's at least as much Leyland's fault.
kenfunck
6/29
Very good point. Leyland didn't request a review -- which is inexcusable on his part as well, especially when you consider managers frequently argue other plays (like out calls at first base) where there is absolutely no chance of the play being reversed.

But that doesn't excuse the umps from taking another look. It's their job to review any questionable boundary home run call, and even watching it live full-speed it sure looked questionable to me.

It was a hot day in Detroit -- maybe everyone was in a hurry to get out of the sun.
Oleoay
6/29
I don't think managers can request a review under the new guidelines.
sandriola
7/01
You're right, Richard.

Having been at the game (and getting to watch the replay on the horrid video screen at Comerica Park), I think that Hoffpauir's attempt at the ball may have led to some confusion as to where the ball hit. Most outfielders don't try to climb that wall, so the fact Hoffpauir did may have biased the umps into "seeing" the ball hit lower than it did. I haven't seen the TV replays, though, so I could be horribly wrong myself.
mickeymorley
6/30
Earlier this month (June 13th I believe), Greg Dobbs of the Phillies hit what may have been a walk-off home run against the Red Sox in the bottom of the 11th inning. I say MAY HAVE because he hit the ball so hard it went OVER the foul pole. Replay was inconclusive but the first base umpire, Jim Joyce, REFUSED to even review the play. Watching Charlie Manuel plead with him, you could clearly see Joyce say "I had it and we're not going to review it". 10 minutes TOPS of your time isn't worth it to make sure you got the call right? Needless to say Dobbs struck out on the next pitch and the Phillies ended up losing the game.
I have no problems with your so called "rant" about the umpiring, Ken. I seem to recall several instances in the past where Joe Sheehan has complained about the poor strike calling of major league umpires and I didn't have a problem with that either. I agree with an earlier comment that MLB should make sure these guys are getting calls RIGHT.
BIG thumbs up this week. I generally never read game stories because I find them boring, but you added some interesting insight and I enjoyed it. Keep up the good work!
kmbart
7/01
Even having seen the replay a dozen times, from several different angles, I couldn't tell whether the ball went over the fair pole or to the right (foul). Joyce's refusal to review irked me too, but post-game comments from first-base coach Davey Lopes and Shane Victorino (who was on first base) agreed with Joyce. Tellingly, Dobbs watched the flight of the ball but never dropped his bat, indicating to me that he knew it was foul.

That said, the ball-and-strike calls in MLB today are atrocious. I umpired professionally for about 5 years and I understand the difficulty of the task at hand, but these guys are supposed to be the best of the best and I just don't see the consistency and accuracy that I feel should be present. Some of them are so bad that I cringe when I see their name on the plate assignment ("Dan, that's Iassogna with one "eye", right?"). Unless Jamie Moyer is scheduled to pitch for the Phillies, of course .
mrgriffey
6/29
Ken had my vote at "institutional-sized container of Whoop-Ass Au Gratin". If that's original, I love it. Inform me and entertain me - I'd love to see more of this at BP.
Oleoay
6/29
I _loved_ that line.
Scherer
6/30
Ken gets my second thumbs up, but only grudgingly. The umpiring diatribe was lengthy, distracting, and unnecessary. This is not to say that Ken was wrong; rather, it is to suggest that the discussion did not enhance the article. Everything you write should answer the question "what central point am I making?". An entertaining aside is okay, but a four-paragraph unrelated rant is excessive.

That said, there are many positives here also. Ken's prose has his typically breezy feel without the cloying over-reaches that have plagued him at times. While discussing game specifics, he alludes to larger issues (i.e. pinch-hit strategy) without losing the atmosphere of the article.

So, while my disappointment in the umpiring rant was significant, the positives are still significant enough to warrant distinction from the non-endorsements. This is, mind you, faint praise, as those I didn't vote for ranged from unmemorable to unreadable.

As for Will's criticism that you include too much blue, I went back to look for all of the dirty material I missed the first time. Then I got his point. There is a trick to reading articles with a lot of links. Read the article, then click to the links afterward. You still get the joke without losing the continuity of the article. Or ignore the links altogether. Just because you see a different color, you are not obligated to click. If those two words displayed in black, instead of blue, would your reading experience really be appreciably different? This is a bit like criticizing a restaurant for providing a side of asparagus, free of charge. If you don't like asparagus, don't eat it. Don't get mad that it was offered. How have you been harmed?

A second-place effort, but still a noticeable gap over some of the other competitors.

greensox
6/30
I was on fence for this one, but voted it up. It was within the spirit of the rules (which I think is important - you could pull something out of a vault and relate it to some interleague game pretty easily). Just a bit boring to me. But, overall good.
fireorlime
6/30
Ken, the big question for me is, what's the C doing in your last name? Does it change the pronunciation at all? How is it not superfluous?
kenfunck
6/30
As much as I'd like to say it's pronounced "throat-warbler mangrove", it's actually pronounced the way you would expect -- just like a George Clinton fan would say it. There are multiple different spellings of the name -- I like to think the 'C' makes it more Prussian since the most paternal part of my ancestry was from Danzig, but that's probably wishful thinking on the part of my internal grognard.
crperry13
7/01
It's like a course in statistics, phys ed, European History, pop culture from pre-1970, English, economics, and sarcasm! Keep up the good work.
ckahrl
7/01
No worries, I've long felt that the world needs more stealth consonants to sow confusion in the enemy's ranks.
Oleoay
7/01
Good job doing your part with two silent h's.
fireorlime
7/01
After you win the contest will your regular weekly column be titled "We Want the Funck" ???
kenfunck
7/01
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. There's several weeks of voting left, so there's a good chance you may be asked to "give up the Funck."
Oleoay
7/02
Lay down and boogie and play that Funcky music till you die?
fireorlime
7/02
Never! Regardless of the outcome in this earthly contest, the Funck spirit lives on inside all of us.