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June 25, 2009

Future Shock

The Importance of Being Manny

by Kevin Goldstein

You're traveling through another dimension. A dimension not only of sight and sound, but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of thr imagination. Next stop, the Manny Zone!

Unless you've been living under a rock, you are well aware that Manny Ramirez has begun his return to the big leagues with some warm-up games in the minor leagues to get his swing back after a long layoff. While his performance will be over-scrutinized on a ridiculous level, keep in mind that these will be small, if not downright tiny sample sizes that really won't tell us anything. In 2002, Ramirez played 11 games for Triple-A Pawtucket while recovering from a hamstring injury, going just 3-for-30, but that wasn't indicative of, well, anything, as he hit a remarkable .349/.450/.647 in 120 big-league games. At the same time, in six rehab games in the Indians system in 2000, he slugged four home runs in just 13 at-bats. Ramirez' performance this year in the minors will likely be something in between those two extremes, so instead of over-analyzing that which shouldn't be analyzed at all (look, we know the guy can hit), let's just have some fun with this.

Our statistical guru, Clay Davenport, is the king of translating performances. He's spent years making painstaking adjustments to his system that on the most basic of levels, attempts to create an even playing field for every team, player, and league, so that we can figure out what the big-league equivalents are for those playing outside of the majors. But what about reversing these formulas, and taking a player out of the major leagues, and making him spend a whole year in the minors? Let's pretend that Manny is a prospect, only one who is as good as he is right now, and see what he can do.

Triple-A Albuquerque

The Pacific Coast League remains a hitter's league, but really only on the left side of the county, as the teams that play from the old American Association remain in a somewhat offense-neutral environment, and there is little cross-division play. However, not only is Manny in a hitter's league right now, he's also in a hitter's park for the double advantage. It's a place where some fringy prospects, or the kind of guys who are well past their primes, put up some gaudy numbers, as the middle of the Isotopes' order has featured a trio of players with .600-plus slugging percentages who are not really considered prospects:

Player       AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB/CS  AVG/ OBP/ SLG
Dee Brown   184 40 57 15  0 13  46 20 25  3/2  .310/.377/.603
Mitch Jones 192 37 56 12  1 21  50 18 49  4/1  .292/.351/.693
Hector Luna 204 44 72 13  5 13  47 21 33  4/1  .352/.420/.657