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June 11, 2009

Prospectus Today

Nominating the Best

by Joe Sheehan

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Last week, talking with Todd Wright on Sporting News Radio, I got off on something of a rant about calling Zack Greinke the best pitcher in baseball. It's not unfair to say that he's pitched the best in 2009, but the title mentioned implies a longer list of qualifications. It's similar to my argument about All-Star teams: the last two months of work is information, but it's a fraction of the information necessary to render a decision on selecting squads for the Midsummer Classic.

This week, it's Roy Halladay whose name keeps popping up. Halladay, of course, has greater claim to the title, not only pitching wonderfully this season but in most seasons this decade. In Tuesday's chat I got asked, "Is Roy Halladay baseball's best pitcher?" My answer:

I still have Johan Santana atop my list, and I think you can argue that Halladay is the best of the next group down, which would include Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia, and Tim Lincecum. Santana is a bit like Albert Pujols now, where he's so good people look for other guys to talk about.

I was thrilled to draw Johan Santana on my first trip to CitiField, and if the results weren't very impressive, he at times showed just why he's the best pitcher in baseball, He kept the Phillies off balance, getting a lot of popups, and pounded the strike zone early in the count to make his changing speeds that much more effective late. It's a small point, but Santana also bluff-bunted and smacked a game-tying double down the right-field line, and speared a line drive for an inning-ending double play. Like Greg Maddux, Johan Santana isn't just a pitcher; he's a baseball player.

Maybe Webb, who hasn't pitched in two months, should be left out of the conversation until he does once again. He's clearly a candidate for the title, but in a field this deep, the questions about his shoulder are enough to keep him out of the mix. Here is what the other four guys have done so far this season:


Pitcher        ERA    IP    BB   SO   HR   SNLVAR   VORP   PRAR
Santana       2.39   79.0   22   91   10     2.4    20.6    26
Halladay      2.52  100.0   12   88    6     3.6    36.3    32
Sabathia      3.56   86.0   27   61    6     2.0    20.7    22
Lincecum      2.96   79.0   25   95    3     2.2    19.9    18

What jumps out at me here is how much better than the field Halladay has been this season. Before looking into the numbers, I had thought that his edge on Santana was much smaller than this. Throwing 20 percent more innings in a tougher run environment, however, makes him nearly twice as valuable as Santana and Lincecum (and Sabathia, whose surface stats are not as impressive).

There is a problem with the above analysis, though. The park factors used in calculating the run environments of Santana and Sabathia for purposes of the metrics are based on a third of a season in their teams' new parks. That's not terribly reliable. It is entirely possible that the adjustments we're making for run environment are inadequate, or even wrong. I doubt any adjustment changes the conclusion that Halladay is the man so far this season. It's just worth keeping in mind that all metrics for Yankee and Met players are going to be problematic until we have a firm handle on the new parks' impacts.

What did these four look like a year ago?


Pitcher       ERA    IP    BB   SO   HR   SNLVAR   VORP    PRAR
Santana      2.53  234.1   63  206   23     8.5    73.6     79
Halladay     2.78  246.0   39  206   18     7.6    70.6     76
Sabathia     2.70  253.0   59  251   19     8.7    77.4     84
Lincecum     2.62  227.0   84  265   11     8.6    72.3     80

Sabathia was famously the best pitcher in baseball a year ago, a distinction that got him less Cy Young consideration than he deserved because of the problems a player who splits his year across leagues presents. Halladay was fourth among this group last year, although close enough to the others that you have to acknowledge the difficulty of his slate-he sees an awful lot of tough lineups in the AL East-relative to the other three. Halladay faced the second-highest quality of batters (as measured by OPS) of any qualifying starter last year. Eleven of the top 20 in this category pitched for AL East teams. His job is just harder than the job of the other candidates. (In 2009, Halladay is 52nd in this category among 116 pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.)

Take it back a year, as 2007 performance should carry some weight in this discussion.


Pitcher       ERA     IP   BB   SO   HR   SNLVAR   VORP    PRAR
Santana       3.33  219.0  52  235   33     6.4    57.1     72
Halladay      3.71  225.1  48  139   15     6.7    49.9     43
Sabathia      3.21  241.0  37  209   20     6.5    67.7     72
Lincecum      4.00  146.1  65  150   12     3.8    26.0     29

Lincecum was called up in May, so this comparison won't go well for him. Halladay leads in Support-Neutral Value, yet trails by a bunch in the other two metrics, which I think is an AL East thing. Sabathia, all things considered, was probably the best in 2007.

If you take the analysis back further, Santana opens up a huge lead. Lincecum wasn't even a professional, Halladay missed big chunks of 2004 and 2005, and Sabathia wasn't at this level until 2006. I think some weight needs to be put on performance that far back, but not very much, so it's extra points for Santana, rather than the whole ball of wax. Let's total up the last three seasons to see where we are. Actually, we're going to count 2007 at 2/3 of the actual numbers, and 2008 and 2009 at face value:


Pitcher       SNLVAR     VORP     PRAR
Santana        15.1     132.2      153
Halladay       15.6     140.1      136
Sabathia       15.1     143.3      154
Lincecum       13.4     100.9      107

We can comfortably remove Lincecum from the discussion until the end of this season, as his track record is a bit too short to compete with the other three The data is mixed on the others, with Sabathia on balance having the best stats of the group. Since he's also having the least impressive 2009, that doesn't help a whole lot. Are we missing anyone? Zack Greinke's stats aren't going to be much better than Lincecum's. Jake Peavy's missed starts last season hold down his numbers. Roy Oswalt isn't quite the same guy he was a couple of years ago. Dan Haren is four months shy of competing for the honor. Justin Verlander wasn't good last year.

There's definitely room to consider that Halladay, and now CC Sabathia, have tougher jobs than the other two. They're just going to see a better set of hitters than Santana and Lincecum will because of the AL East's quality and the unbalanced schedule. Is that worth five runs a year, or 15, or 30? We're guessing a bit, and at that, we don't know how the starts will fall; you can pitch in the AL East, but get lucky and make fewer starts in the division than perhaps you should. The Opponents' OPS report is a decent proxy for this sort of thing.

It turns out that it's not Santana who is being shortchanged, but Sabathia. He's been just as good as Johan Santana and better than Halladay during the survey period; he was more durable, though less effective, than Halladay in 2006, and comparisons between the two prior to that are involving guys who weren't qualified for the title based on effectiveness and durability. On the other hand, he's slipped a bit in a dozen starts to date, which is admittedly a thin thread to on which to attack his case. Halladay has stronger peripheral stats this season and the highest batting average on balls in play, suggesting he's been the least lucky of the group.

Sometimes it's about the journey rather than the destination. After all of that, I'm no closer to knowing who the best pitcher in baseball is than I was whe I started. Santana hasn't had the edges, the run prevention, to warrant my full-throated defense if the idea that he is still the best pitcher in baseball. On other other hand, I take these labels seriously, and would like to hang the honor on the right person. In this case, however there is no right person. All three pitchers have have a reasonable claim to the title of "best pitcher in baseball." The rest of 2009 will help us settle the argument.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Joe's other articles. You can contact Joe by clicking here

Related Content:  The Who,  Johan Santana,  Best

15 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

iorg34

Great job Joe - - I'd go for a postitional series of these. Probably more of an offseason project, and I doubt that many positions have an alpha pack that is this tightly spaced, but it'd be interesting to find out. I thought the conclusion was especially solid, despite a one-letter editing miss.

Jun 11, 2009 13:16 PM
rating: 4
 
Jay Taylor

One thing I like a lot about halladay and Sabathia over Santana is the innings pitched. Over the last three years Sabathia has 580, Halladay has 571.1 and Santana has 532.1. That's a pretty big difference, and when you think about what 50 innings of Met's relief work looks like you have to wonder if Sabathia isn't the more valuable pitcher.

Jun 11, 2009 13:34 PM
rating: 5
 
ssakis
(777)

I am a fan of both the Yanks and Mets (rare I know). So I root now for both Sabathia and Santana wholeheartedly. And I would trade either in second for Roy Halladay. He is simply the man right now.

Jun 11, 2009 13:40 PM
rating: 1
 
Greg Ioannou

I was thinking the same thing. You really think that the Yankees wouldn't trade Sabathia for Halladay in a second if they had the chance? I think it Santana/Halladay is a more even trade, but I'd go with Halladay both for the extra innings he pitches and the way he acts as a role model for the other pitchers on the staff. You can make a good case that the reason the other Jays pitchers have overachieved, especially the past two seasons, is that they are all trying to emulate Roy's work ethic.

Jun 12, 2009 08:42 AM
rating: 0
 
Clonod

If Greinke does something remarkable this year (say, a sub 2.00 ERA) does he wrest the title from these 3?

Jun 11, 2009 13:50 PM
rating: 1
 
MikeJordan23

When he pitches, Chris Carpenter has to be in the discussion. Top 5, at the worst.

Jun 11, 2009 13:53 PM
rating: -2
 
eighteen

Thoroughly irrelevant. The man's thrown 65 IP the last 3 seasons. He doesn't belong in this conversation.

Jun 11, 2009 14:04 PM
rating: 7
 
Aaron/YYZ

Joe, I always appreciate you shining a light Strength of Schedule issues with the AL East.

Also, I believe 2005 was the "Line Drive Broken Leg" injury for Halladay which is more a freak accident than a durability issue. Up to that injury just prior to the All Star break, he was clearly the best pitcher in all of baseball that year as well (and would have started the All Star game if not injured).

Jun 11, 2009 13:58 PM
rating: 4
 
mafrth77

Does SNLVAR take team defensife ability into account or strength of competition into account? If not is it really an accurate indicator of how good a pitcher really is?

Jun 11, 2009 14:51 PM
rating: 0
 
Michael
(736)

I would think that Sabathia is the best pitcher in baseball. He was definitely the best in both 2007 and 2008 and in opinion, even before giving him extra credit for pitching the Brewers to a playoff slot last year often on short rest. A 3.56 ERA in the third of a season since then isn't enough to lose the title to me.

I enjoyed the article but it does seem like you give much less weight to current year performance when evaluating potential all-stars than you did here.

Jun 11, 2009 14:53 PM
rating: 2
 
dtung

The SNL in SNLVAR stands for Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted so it does take into account the strength of the opposition.

Pardon me for being a little rusty on these statistics, but what is the difference between SNLVAR, VORP, and PRAR? It seems to me that SNLVAR takes into account the consistency of the pitcher since it is aggregated from each of the pitcher's outing. However it uses a pitcher's raw statistics whereas VORP uses a pitcher's translated statistics. And is PRAR simply VORP without the contribution from the pitcher's bat?

One last comment ... if a team were looking to sign the best pitcher available during the offseason it seems like they would be looking for value above the level of an average pitcher rather than a replacement. Those may be better statistics depending on how you frame your question. This would likely favor Santana since he pitches the least innings of the three but makes up for his relative lack of durability with higher quality.

Jun 11, 2009 17:21 PM
rating: 0
 
jmanig

SNLVAR takes opponent lineups into considerations, and also views each start individually, rather than contributions over the whole season. In other words, a single disaster start will cost you a bit less in SNLVAR than it would in PRAR or VORP.

PRAR on the other hand attempts to isolate the pitching component from the defense. The FRAA of the defense is deducted for each pitcher, with an adjustment for how much they pitched and how dependant on the defense they are (based on balls in play). Lineups are not taken in consideration, however.

Personally, I never saw the point in VORP for pitchers, as it has neither adjustment, but that be just me.

All three are park adjusted, though, so that's not an issue.

Jun 11, 2009 17:50 PM
rating: 1
 
sharksrog

Very comprehensive article that by looking at the last 2 full seasons and the 35% of this one that has already passed puts a seemingly balance perspective on who truly IS the best pitcher in baseball.

I think this season it clearly is Zack Greinke who has been the top pitcher. Last season Cliff Lee was among the very best. But I agree with you that the three-year approach makes sense.

I could even see giving the current season (at completion) perhaps a 50% weighting, with last year receiving 33% and 2007 getting a 17% balance. Certainly Santana would fare well with that weighting, and over the past three years he likely has been the man -- probably with Halladay second.

I'm a huge Tim Lincecum fan, and I think he will soon take the crown. Tim has been in the majors only two years and a month, so from your broader (and I believe more proper) perspective, he just doesn't have the longevity necessary to be your king. That he is in the top four so quickly is amazing in itself.

I think Sabathia has been the inconsistent one of the group, although as you point out, an argument could be made that he was the best pitcher of 2008. Certainly once he came to the National League he was. And he's been very good over not only the last three seasons, but the past four.

Halladay is the model of both consistency and innings pitched. With the exception of his injury-plagued season of 2004, Roy has been excellent since 2001. And has managed 43 complete games and 12 shutouts along the way.

As for Santana, he pretty much took over the best pitcher mantle when Pedro Martinez's arm started falling off. I think Johan will soon be passing the mantle to Lincecum, but he is certainly doing so grudgingly.

But I kind of like a relay team passing the baton from perhaps Greg Maddux to Martinez to Santana and quite likely to Lincecum.

Somewhere I think that relay team goes all the way back to Walter Johnson.

Jun 12, 2009 12:34 PM
rating: 1
 
MikeFetters

It would probably require passing the baton to one of the stat-crunchers for the heavy lifting, but it would be pretty cool if BP could daisy-chain together a continuous list of the "best pitcher in baseball" using some incarnation of Joe's formula, and going as far back as statistical accuracy and precision allow.

Jun 12, 2009 22:09 PM
rating: 0
 
PaulieNeu

Proving his stupidity yet again, Skip Bayless and one of his many counterparts on First and 10, claimed that Josh Beckett was undoubtedly the best pitcher in the game. Claiming "by the numbers he's the best pitcher in the game," they managed to prove yet again that they have no idea what they are doing or how to analyze numbers.

I know this isn't necessarily a typical piece of BP analysis, but things like "intangibles" started to come up in the discussion as they bashed CC for not being able to close out the 8th inning after being up over 120 pitches against Boston. I have to say that as a Yankee fan, watching his starts on an every-fifth-day basis, he may not be the best pitcher in baseball, but I'm pretty happy with the signing.

Jun 13, 2009 06:55 AM
rating: 1
 
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