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June 9, 2009

Future Shock

The Mock Draft

by Kevin Goldstein

This one could be a mess folks, and it's all about bonus demands at this point. Right now, you have as many as four high school pitchers—Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, and Shelby Miller—looking for big, big money, with the first three all telling teams they're looking for Rick Porcello-level deals (or more). This has the potential to blow the first round wide open, and turn it into into a very college-oriented first 30 picks, with numerous top talents falling to later picks than initially expected. One team picking in the top ten I spoke to this morning said he still had very little idea of who was going to be picked ahead of his club's choice.

Further down, signability could continue to rule the day, as players and agents are basically conducting a mini-revolt over the fact that MLB's recommended slot bonuses are 10 percent lower this year. "I'm not really upset that the top guys are asking for a lot of money, because that's every year," said one scouting director. "What's bugging me is that we called a lot of kids we'd think about in rounds two through six, and they're suddenly all asking for a million dollars as well."

With just 111 picks getting made today, one thing is certain—there is going to be plenty of top talent going to bed tonight still wondering where they will be selected.

1. Washington Nationals: Why waste time? Everyone knows what's happening. Move along, nothing to see here.
Pick: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State

2. Seattle Mariners: This one has suddenly gotten a little strange. Two weeks ago, Dustin Ackley looked like a lock here, and he's definitely established himself as the number two talent available, but now there are suddenly rumors that he's looking for an eight-figure deal. Some further poking around makes this look like a smokescreen, but at the same time, the most significant rumor on Monday had Seattle looking elsewhere, and nobody can really pinpoint who else they're looking at. One backup plan here could be Donavan Tate, whose selection wouldn't tear apart much of the draft behind this, but don't be shocked if option two turns out to be Tanner Scheppers, which could really make things messy for the rest of the top ten. The Mariners' attendees have been surprisingly numerous at Scheppers' indy league starts, and new general manager Jack Zduriencik has an affinity for power, be it's of the bat or arm varieties. For now, let's stick to Ackley, but it's not the slam dunk that it was 72 hours ago.
Pick: Dustin Ackley, OF/1B, North Carolina