Printer-friendly

Contact Author

May 28, 2009

Prospectus Today

The Guillen Number

by Joe Sheehan

Carlos Zambrano's antics got all the attention yesterday, but the most important thing that happened at Wrigley Field was that the Cubs won the game.

I've been asked about the Cubs a lot lately, which has been surprising to me because this is a team that has obvious reasons for its .500 record. Aramis Ramirez and Rich Harden are out; Zambrano and Derrek Lee and Milton Bradley have all missed time. That kind of injury track record by half of the payroll can sink some teams, but all it's done to the Cubs is slowed them down. They're 23-22 today even after losing eight in a row, and they're four games out in a division loaded with teams that have been overachieving. The Cubs were projected by me to go 87-75, a big drop from last year due to the team's age and injury concerns. An 87-75 team would be expected to be 24-21 at this point in the season. So regardless of how they got there—and I can't write enough about how little the order of events matters relative to how much emphasis is placed upon it—the Cubs are just a game off of their expected pace.

The Cubs' offense has become a problem, resembling the team on the South Side more than last year's juggernaut. This year's Cubs, like recent editions of the White Sox, don't do anything but hit home runs. The Cubs lead the NL in dingers, while placing 15^th in hits, 15^th in doubles, sixth in triples, 11^th in walks, and 12^th in steals. They're 12^th in batting average and OBP, while the homers bump them to seventh in slugging. That's the profile of a one-dimensional offense, and the following chart, which I've taken to calling the Guillen Number, shows just how one-dimensional they've been

Team      RUNS   HR  HR_R   HR_R%
Rangers    242   77   113   46.7
Yankees    266   77   119   44.7
White Sox  189   49    84   44.4
Phillies   249   66   107   43.0
Brewers    218   53    86   39.4
Cubs       206   51    80   38.8
Nationals  228   53    88   38.6
Orioles    235   53    90   38.3
Padres     188   49    71   37.8
Reds       213   51    80   37.6
Tigers     244   51    91   37.3
Red Sox    250   53    93   37.2
Marlins    221   48    82   37.1
D'backs    200   50    74   37.0
Mariners   180   40    66   36.7
Rockies    225   53    82   36.4
Twins      252   54    90   35.7
Indians    261   51    92   35.2
Cardinals  217   51    75   34.6
Blue Jays  257   53    87   33.9
Rays       281   57    86   30.6
Royals     200   39    60   30.0
Astros     193   39    56   29.0
Braves     197   33    56   28.4
Mets       226   32    62   27.4
Athletics  194   33    52   26.8
Pirates    206   31    55   26.7
Angels     219   37    52   23.7
Giants     182   25    42   23.1
Dodgers    276   34    56   20.3

(Thanks, Bil Burke.)

The Cubs are sixth in MLB and third in the NL in their reliance on the long ball. Of the five teams ahead of them, four play in extreme home-run parks. And it's adorable to see the White Sox, again, among the world leaders in this stat.

The Cubs' age may be coming around to haunt them. They have an assortment of the kinds of good-not-great players who often decline as they edge past 30, and while seven weeks of baseball is still not enough to base conclusions on, the combination of age and performance is discouraging. Lee, at 34 years old, is hitting just .242/.313/.406, with an uptick in his strikeout rate and a loss of power. Alfonso Soriano, 31, is striking out a lot even by his lofty standards, and appears to be losing his speed (no triples since 2007, a sharp reduction in steals since 2006). Bradley, 31, has stayed on the field more than expected, with more than 200 defensive innings to his credit, but unfortunately he's been a huge disappointment at the plate, hitting .200/.328/.390. Although Soriano's overall stats are respectable, these three players, collectively, are a big reason why the Cubs are fading from last year's performance. They've pushed the team from third in the NL in Equivalent Average a year ago to 13^th this time around.