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May 7, 2009

Prospectus Hit and Run

Manny's Absence

by Jay Jaffe

Just as it looked as though the Dodgers might run away with the National League West, they were hit with a bombshell on Thursday, namely Manny Ramirez's 50-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball's drug policy. Leaving the specifics of his violation to the reporters except to note that he won't be eligible to return until July 3, the question is whether his absence will put the division title back in play. The answer—sorry, Diamondbacks fans and Manny haters—is probably not.

Despite haggling with the Dodgers over his contract into early March and suffering a hamstring strain during his second week of spring training, Ramirez had picked up where he left off last year, hitting .348/.492/.641 and leading the NL in OBP and walks. His performance has helped power the Dodgers to the majors' best record (21-8), run differential (+55), and Equivalent Average (.286), not to mention a modern major league record 13-0 start at home. The team currently leads the Giants by 6 ½ games and the Diamondbacks by 8 ½ games.

At the outset of the season, our PECOTA projections pegged the Dodgers at 93 wins, with a 47.8 percent chance of winning the division and a 9.4 percent chance of taking the Wild Card, with the Diamondbacks at 88 wins, 34.7 percent, and 10.3 percent, respectively. Updating today's "reality check" piece to include Wednesday night's results and their ramifications in our PECOTA-based Playoff Odds report, the Dodgers are projected to win 100 games (a .619 winning percentage), with an 84.1 percent chance of winning the division and a 4.7 percent chance of taking the Wild Card, while Arizona is projected with 84 wins (a .521 winning percentage), and 10.7 and 12.1 percent shots at the division and the Wild Card. In other words, the Dodgers have widened the gap considerably on their closest rivals. Meanwhile, the Giants are still projected for just 78 wins, with a 3.4 percent shot at the division and 4.6 percent chance at the Wild Card.

The Dodgers have three in-house options to fill their vacancy in left field. The most obvious one is Juan Pierre, who's spent the half-season since Manny hit Tinseltown stuck in fourth-outfielder oblivion, accumulating just 118 plate appearances. Used mainly as a pinch-hitter this year, he has just 33 plate appearances, hitting the most empty .355 you might ever see: .355/.394/.387. His salary ($10 million, fourth highest on the team) and manager Joe Torre's taste for veteran herbs and spices makes him the most likely candidate to fill the job.

Also potentially in the mix is 24-year-old rookie Xavier Paul, a 2003 fourth-round pick who impressed the team during spring training this year. He's been recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas, where he hit .316/.378/.463 in the hitter-friendly environment last year and was batting .344/.385/.542 this year. As noted in this year's edition of the Baseball Prospectus annual, Paul's a good athlete who makes solid contact with a line-drive swing that he has yet to translate into real power, as well as possessing decent speed and the system's best arm. He's a rookie but hardly a blue-chip talent, a combo likely to put him at a severe disadvantage in Torre's eyes.