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April 27, 2009

The Mariners Matter?

Short-Stack Supremacy

by Christina Kahrl

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If you're one of those statheads inclined to pooh-pooh early-season action, avoid hasty conclusions, and prattle on about small sample sizes-and I'm one of the most guilty-there is one thing that a look at the standings should tell us that we might not have believed three weeks ago. What is it? That out in the AL West, the Mariners should be taken seriously as a team with win-now potential. No, really. Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, you'll see that our daily million-season exercise in forecasting based on where we're at right now suggests that the M's have a 35 percent chance of reaching October action, 33 percent by virtue of winning their division outright. Go with the slightly more advanced, PECOTA projection-enhanced version of our forecasts of the remainder of the season, and the Mariners do better still, winning their division almost 37 percent of the time.

What gives? Well, first off, a dynamic forecasting system like our own adapts to what's already on the books. Beyond their stack of injuries in the rotation, the Angels were already at risk of fielding a mediocre offense, but now that they're without Vladimir Guerrero, they become that much more likely to struggle to achieve even that epithet. Up in Oakland, a rotation reliant on young talent has yet to gel, and the famed Moneyball offense remains as AWOL with Jason Giambi and Matt Holliday in the fold as it has been in recent years before their addition. Before the season even started, it was hard to see either of those teams as clubs likely to get out of the mid-80s in total wins. The Mariners were forecast as the likely winners of 77 or 78 games, or very much in the playoff picture, both in real terms and mathematically-already inside 10 games in a big-picture projection, where not that many things have to go right or wrong to put Seattle up with the initial favorites. Add in the virtue of head-to-head play in the league's short stack, going up against teams whose problems only seem to be mounting, and you get a brand of hope and faith that transcends Opening Day-inspired make-believe.

Now, as we could anticipate before the season, it's not a rock-solid bid, of course, but many of the same factors that made the Mariners a credible contender in some people's minds heading into the 2008 season after an 88-win campaign in '07 are still present on this year's ballclub. A rotation stocked with a blend of experience and talent that was supposed to fuel that '08 bid has actually been delivering in 2009. With the benefit of a healthy Erik Bedard as well as Jarrod Washburn's apparently building on his solid second half last season (when he posted a 3.56 ERA in his last 15 starts) in his first four outings this year, it looks as if Felix Hernandez might finally have a couple of wing men who can deliver winnable ballgames. A reflection of that is captured by the Mariners' rotation ranking third in the American League in per-game Support-Neutral performance; in 2008, with Bedard missing half the season, Washburn ineffective early on, and Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista contributing disasterpieces two of every five nights for much of the year, they ranked 11th. Obviously, much depends on Washburn and Bedard continuing to do those things they've done, and Silva's menace is still present in the rotation, but throw in King Felix's ascending to acedom, and the rotation could keep games tight.

Can the pen keep games close as well? Even with J.J. Putz dealt to the Mets, the decision to replace him with Brandon Morrow seems to be working out quite nicely, headlining a crew of mostly homegrown talent shored up with free-talent pickup David Aardsma (although handicapped by Batista, a free-agency gift that keeps on giving things nobody should want). If one of the most important tasks for any manager is how he handles his pitching staff, it would appear that rookie skipper Don Wakamatsu has something to work with, and is getting good results, not just from Morrow and Aardsma, but also Shawn Kelley and Mark Lowe. While control issues might undermine some or all of them, all four also have the stuff to be quality relievers. If Wakamatsu creates roles where each succeeds, it wouldn't be the first good bullpen made up of relatively non-famous people, and it won't be the last.

So, if the pitching's a good group, can the offense do enough to hold up its end to make this bid plausible? Here, things get even more speculative. Players such as Adrian Beltre, Jose Lopez, and Yuniesky Betancourt don't have a lot of breakout potential, Endy Chavez isn't a big league-caliber bat in left, and center fielder Franklin Gutierrez has yet to prove that he's anything more than a Gold Glove center fielder with a platoon bat only really worth starting versus southpaws. A lot of the decisions as far as who's in the lineup have been informed by position player's defensive value, and while that's a decision that's been reinforced by early results-the Mariners rank sixth in the majors in Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency-they'll do themselves a favor by considering in-season upgrades at offense-oriented positions like first base or in left. Happily, getting a veteran at either position with a pre-deadline deal, someone who's probably free agency-bound, and employed by a team looking to cut salary and who won't take even a second-rank prospect to acquire, is one of the staples of the current trading environment. When you're talking about improving upon a Chavez or a Russell Branyan, adding an outfielder, and (perhaps) bringing back a Jeff Clement from Triple-A to move to first base for the stretch run is a realizable bit of in-season shoring up.

That's the fun to be had with the Mariners' immediate future, in how it represents the perils of the fragile contender. While another sabermetric saw is that every game matters equally, timing really can be everything. Getting out to an early good start can and does inform subsequent decision-making, which can lead to decisions that have enormous subsequent impacts on the shape of the team. If the Mariners had gone into the tank in the early going, we'd be talking about what new GM Jack Zduriencik would need to shop for and the best possible deals to be struck for free agents-to-be Bedard, Washburn, and Beltre. Instead, by getting out to a hot start, the Mariners can take their present seriously, balancing the risks and rewards of winning now and watching some of their free agents depart (perhaps leaving draft compensation picks in their wake) against the prospect packages they'd receive if they chuck the vets and duck out of the playoff race.

How the Mariners play their opportunities reflects a saw of a different sort: it's why they play the games. But playing in the smallest division, one that's also unencumbered by any greatness, there's a chance here for Seattle to take a shot at a division title right now, perhaps not one that involves running with the big dogs of the AL East come October, but at least giving their fans a meaningful season while Zduriencik also achieves the progress he was brought in to achieve, with organization-wide retooling from the player development side on up. While that's the long way 'round, the fun is that the Mariners can enjoy the benefits of a quick short-cut to relevance right now.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

Christina Kahrl is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Christina's other articles. You can contact Christina by clicking here

Related Content:  The Who,  Jarrod Washburn

9 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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While I'm as big a fan of small sample size analysis as any well-informed stats-minded observer can be, I'm not sure that I'd consider the Mariners 38% likely to reach the ALDS. By third-order wins, the Mariners are last in the AL West and ahead of only the Twins and the Orioles in the entire AL. Their current odds are escalated by the irony that early-season injuries to other AL West teams affected both the early Pct3 and the PECOTA Depth Chart, while the PECOTA projections already included an estimate for total time lost to injury as an element of the forecast. When Clay Davenport adjusts the depth chart to account for an injury that's already factored into Nate Silver's projections, there's a possibility (not a certainty) of an overadjustment against teams facing injury challenges as they leave spring training. Both the A's and the Angels had ace pitchers down at the start of the regular season, and that might have caused their projected wins to be deflated.

Still, the Mariners have a lead in what looks to be a tight race. I might quibble with 38%, but I don't disagree that we now should see the Mariners as surprise contenders. If we never accept a small sample size at face value, or at least run the numbers to attempt to gauge the relevance of the small sample, we'll miss every turning point. I'm happy to see one of BP's gifted analysts and writers taking a stand in favor of a small sample for a change.

Apr 27, 2009 14:07 PM
rating: 1

I'm stunned. An entire article on the position of one team in the midst of the AL West with no mention of the team currently running second in that division. Now granted the Rangers have issues (getting Pailla on track, keeping the ball in the yard for McCarthy, finding better options for fourth and fifth starters than Matt Harrison and Scott Feldman, the pen outside of Frank Francisco, Hamilton's injury, David Murphy's 0 for 23 to start the year, Chris Davis's run at 300 strikeouts on the season. But they are hitting lots of homers, have a greatly improved defense (17th in DE this year after being dead last in the majors in 2008). Millwood has been solid and delivering more innings per start than ever by a bunch (again, small sample size applies, but its 7.5 vs a very respectable 6.1 for his career.)

Apr 27, 2009 14:21 PM
rating: -3

Well I'm still sold on the A's to take the division.

Other than three starters (Hernandez, Bedard, and Washburn), and three bats (Suzuki, Griffey, and Lopez), I really don't like anything else on this team.

I've got a really hard time believing that the bullpen holds up. Not to mention their offense is terrible..

Even in a weak division I don't think they've got enough. I do think that the Rangers have a better shot at the division than the Mariners.

Apr 27, 2009 15:37 PM
rating: 0

Am I the only one that noticed the big correction Jarrod Washburn got to his stats yesterday courtesy of the Angels?

Apr 27, 2009 15:51 PM
rating: 0
Richard Bergstrom

The Mariners improved their defense this offseason, which suggests their pitching performances can be sustainable. Throw in a bit of a reverse plexiglass effect for last season's horrible performance and it's possible they can compete.

However, I don't know if they really should think of themselves as contenders. They have some serious rebuilding and reorganization to do.

Apr 27, 2009 17:12 PM
rating: 1

Could be a Phyrric string of victories if the M's contend through the summer by smoke and mirrors only to fade in the fall along with any chance to cash in the free agents for prospects.

The underlying truth hasn't changed: this is a woebegone team.

Apr 27, 2009 20:04 PM
rating: 0
Fresh Hops

Bedard will and Beltre should net them compensation picks. It's not doom if they don't manage some deadline trades.

Apr 27, 2009 20:39 PM
rating: 0
Fresh Hops

Putting those wins in the bank may actually have the M's playing meaningful ball in September. I think the AL West is going to be a competitive division this season.

Also, if the M's make it to the ALDS, I think we can pretty safely assume that no one is going to question the value of good defense anymore. The momentary understanding of hitting and pitching but not fielding lead to an era of undervaluing the latter. We're starting to understand the value of fielding and the cat is out of the bag. Maybe our understanding of Adam Dunn's defense isn't as good as our understanding of his hitting, but we're starting to know that a glove matters and have a pretty good idea how much.

Actually, I suspect that this will be really good for baseball. Many corner OFs work hard on every play, and some are just inept, but there are some that I truly suspect of thinking that it doesn't really matter. It will matter when it gets reflecting in salaries, and that means better baseball for the rest of us.

Apr 27, 2009 22:12 PM
rating: 0
Richard Bergstrom

I think this movement happened some years ago when the A's transitioned from their HR/OBP teams to picking up the likes of Mark Kotsay and Terrence Long, in theory, because of their defensive abilities.

Apr 28, 2009 07:54 AM
rating: 0
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2009-05-01 - Premium Article Game Story
2009-04-30 - Transaction Analysis: The Mess in the West
2009-04-28 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Updates from the Easts
2009-04-27 - Premium Article The Mariners Matter?
2009-04-23 - Premium Article Milton the Magnificent?
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2009-04-30 - Transaction Analysis: The Mess in the West