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April 23, 2009

Wait 'Til Next Year

Trawling for Prospects

by Bryan Smith

If college baseball is going to sell its product, they're going to have to start with the players. David Price and Stephen Strasburg do more for college baseball's popularity than the 2008 Fresno State Bulldogs ever could. One of the advantages of the College World Series is that the draft has already happened—they're in a position to sell tickets based on the players that will take the field (last year it was Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, Jason Castro, Yonder Alonso, and Jemile Weeks, to name a few). This year, you know the CWS officials will be hoping that Tony Gwynn can lead a miracle Aztecs run to Omaha on Strasburg's back, but that could be asking too much.

In reality, the eight teams in Omaha are likely to come from the top two tiers in college baseball. So while Strasburg and Grant Green and Kyle Heckathorn and Rex Brothers probably won't be on display in Rosenblatt Stadium, there will still be talent worth boasting about. As this season begins to take shape and the draft picture begins to clear, I think it's a good time to break down how college baseball's best teams will contribute to the 2009 June Amateur Draft.

1. Rice
Best 2009 Draft Prospect: Ryan Berry, 4-0, 1.69 ERA, 16 H, 7 BB, 31 K in 36 2/3 IP
Berry doesn't have the look or the size of a first-rounder, but he has the resumé and the knuckle-curve. He'll be off the board by the end of the second round at the latest.
Others to Note: Converted catcher Diego Seastrunk and transfer Steven Sultzbaugh had their followers entering the season, but neither has really produced. Seastrunk will probably go first, while Sultzbaugh might be best served by returning to school. Mike Ojala and Jordan Rogers have above-average sliders, but they won't wow any radar guns. They'll make nice mid-round picks for a few teams.

2. Texas
Best 2009 Draft Prospect: Austin Wood, 4-0, 1.55 ERA, 10 Sv, 26 H, 5 BB, 31 K in 40 2/3 IP
As you can probably infer, Wood is a command specialist, but he's also appeared in 23 of Texas' 38 games this season, and has been the most dependable closer in the nation.
Others to Note: The important thing here is that if the Longhorns have a player drafted within the first ten rounds, it will be a surprise. Brandon Belt has continued to show a nice approach to hitting, but his power just isn't where a first baseman's needs to be. Preston Clark and Russ Moldenhauer have fallen on their faces in the past two years, and a guy like Travis Tucker is an organizational player at best.

3. North Carolina
Best 2009 Draft Prospect: Alex White, 6-1, 3.14 ERA, 31 H, 25 BB, 58 K in 44 1/3 IP
Kevin Goldstein touched on White in a recent draft notebook, so I'll just add that when White has his splitter going, he's an absolute force. The bullpen is a fallback for him more than for any other pitcher vying for a top ten draft spot.
Others to Note: Dustin Ackley belongs alongside White, and he could go that high in the draft. Ackley's uptick in power this season is huge, and there will be a team ready to believe that his speed just can't fail in center field. It's also hard to believe that Kyle Seager will fall past the third round; he's a steady second baseman with average tools across the board, and there aren't many of those in this draft. If there's a good mid-round guy, why not try Mark Fleury, who's an average defender that has shown a hint of power.