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April 15, 2009

Prospectus Hit and Run

Strength of Schedule

by Jay Jaffe

Through weeks of tweaking and touting our PECOTA-based projected standings, one fact has remained clear: the AL East is the majors' most stacked division, with three teams forecast to win at least 94 games, and the eventual runner-up likely to win the league's Wild Card. The NL East features three strong contenders as well, with the second-place club likely to be in the thick of the Wild Card hunt. Given that these contenders' interleague slates vary—the Mets play the Yankees six times due to their "natural rivalry," and likewise for the Braves and Red Sox, but the Phillies draw the considerably weaker Blue Jays, and the Rays face the Marlins—it's worth gauging the impact of the differing schedules.

To evaluate this, we used the aforementioned projected records to calculate the opponents' winning percentages for all 30 teams, not only for the entire season, but also month by month and half by half so as to better appreciate the schedule's contours. Instead of using the raw projected winning percentages, we applied two adjustments based on data from the last three years, one to account for the home team winning 55 percent of the time, and the other for the AL winning 58 percent of interleague games. Using the log5 method similar to that used by Clay Davenport in the Postseason Odds report, this is a relatively simple task; a 25-point (.025) bonus or tax is applied based on whether the opponent is at home or on the road, and a 40-point (.040) one is applied for interleague play.

Thus when the Yankees (.606) play the Mets (.565) at the new Yankee Stadium, the latter's adjusted winning percentage is recorded as .565 - .025 - .040 = .500. When they play at Citi Field, it's recorded as .565 + .025 - .040 = .550. From the Mets' point of view, the Yankees are a .671 team (.606 + .025 + .040) in the Bronx and a .621 (.606 - .025 + .040) team in Queens. Applying these adjustments uniformly is fairly crude, since it may be true that more extreme teams on either end of the spectrum have differing home/road or interleague splits, but for this exercise, it's what we're using.

Below are the full season strength of schedule measurements:

Team      Opp W%
Marlins    .519
Orioles    .514
Blue Jays  .513
Nationals  .512
Rockies    .507
Padres     .506
Pirates    .506
Phillies   .506
Braves     .505
Mets       .504
Red Sox    .504
Giants     .503
Astros     .503
Yankees    .501
Rangers    .501
White Sox  .500
Rays       .500
Cardinals  .498
Brewers    .497
Reds       .496
Royals     .496
Mariners   .494
Angels     .493
Twins      .493
Athletics  .493
Dodgers    .492
D'backs    .492
Indians    .491
Tigers     .490
Cubs       .488

As you marvel at the brutality facing the bottom two clubs in the two Easts, consider the following:

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