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April 7, 2009

Under The Knife

Not As Bad as it Looks

by Will Carroll

I was really stunned to see Major League Baseball's press release stating that injuries were down this spring from 106 players on the DL to begin last season to just 69 this year. Yes, I realize it was part "I told you so" for WBC nay-sayers, but it's the first time that I can remember seeing any acknowledgement of injury statistics. Teams are taking injuries more seriously, and there are signs that MLB is starting to as well. I'm waiting to see whether or not this is a real lowering of injury rate, or a simple data-point that is on the low side of the range on a day that seems more significant than it actually is. What I can do is call it a good start. It's certainly a better start than I had yesterday with my aborted trip to Cincinnati, which was fouled by icy roads here in Indy. The storms should clear by Wednesday, when I know I'll make it down. Powered by an insane number of blackouts today—seriously, the Cubs were in Houston, and St. Louis is five hours away—on to the injuries:

CC Sabathia (0 DXL)
A long time ago in a place far, far away... no, wait. It was just last year, in Cleveland, when Sabathia began the season poorly, but by the end of the year, no one was talking about those first few outings. People seemed more confused than worried about his Opening Day start for the Yankees, with Sabathia showing no dominance, some command problems, and spending his half-inning on the bench with a heating pad on his side. The heating pad had many concerned, though in the few shots I saw, it was being held in different areas along his ribcage, and Sabathia's explanation that he was "keeping warm" does make some sense. "Precautionary" would make even more sense, because it's important to remember that Sabathia has a history of oblique strains, injuring himself at the start of the season in both 2005 and 2006. With the combination of game results, his history, and the provocative image, this bears watching. I do think that there was something throwing off his release point; it could be any one of a million factors, including not being able to get his core loose.

Brandon Webb (0 DXL)
There was an element of chicken/egg in Webb's bad day. Did the shoulder become sore before he gave up back-to-back jacks to Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Ianetta, or did watching those balls go out of the park tighten things up for him? The answer is the former; if you watch the highlights, you can see that even early in the game, Webb's velocity is down, and so is his elbow. It was well below the level of his shoulder, unusual for a sinkerballer who normally comes over the top with a good deal of shoulder lean. The dropping elbow might remind you of Carlos Zambrano last year, but let's keep in mind that Zambrano remained very effective as long as he was well-rested. Webb often goes through bouts of fatigue, being a little more cyclical than most pitchers, and it could just be that he's more open about it than others. The velocity is troubling, though Webb is far more reliant on movement than velocity. It doesn't look to be a D'backs nightmare yet, and we'll know more once his throw day comes around.

John Lackey (30 DXL)
Ervin Santana (60 DXL)
Kelvim Escobar (45 DXL)
The Angels aren't down three pitchers as much as they're down two, roughly the same situation they found themselves in last season. Lackey is in the same position on the fret list, with Santana replacing Jeff Weaver as worry number two for Mike Scioscia. Escobar is more of a bonus, since the Angels went into the offseason unsure if he would contribute at all. The plan is to use him as a seventh-inning guy, maybe even in the sixth inning in some situations, shortening games for the starters, or serving as relief for the relievers if they're overworked during the first month or so. With Lackey and Santana down at least four weeks (and it could be much longer for Santana), the vultures are circling the Angels' minor leagues, anticipating the need for a deal. The Padres, holding Jake Peavy, are at the top of everyone's list, though there are plenty of teams who will make offers if the Angels do go that route. Don't bet on it though; the Angels continue to value their own prospects much more than most. We'll see if they stick to that in the coming weeks.

Bronson Arroyo (0 DXL)
I had hoped to be able to talk to Arroyo yesterday before the Reds' Opening Day game, but that will have to be delayed until tomorrow. There has been some good news in the interim, with Arroyo's new medication making enough of a difference that the Reds have put him back in his slot in the rotation. They had planned to swap him with Micah Owings, giving Arroyo a few extra days to get ready. Instead, the carpal tunnel syndrome symptoms have been reduced enough that they feel comfortable with him throwing on Thursday. CTS is a chronic condition that is exacerbated by repetitive activities, and if it's pitching that's affecting him, that's a problem. If it's playing guitar, it can be controlled. Either way, we're going to have to wait and watch.