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April 3, 2009

Prospectus Today

The Middle Third

by Joe Sheehan

By way of reminder, here is the first installment. I forgot to mention that that the cutoff for "surprise" falls between the Pirates and the Astros, with the Orioles and Blue Jays in a separate category due to the AL East. I can see scenarios where even the Astros, White Sox, and Nationals are all relevant deep into the summer this season, and while I don't expect those things to happen, the nature of the game right now certainly allows for it. Once you get to the Royals at 24^th, you're into the pool of teams that can legitimately dream.

Teams are ranked by record, primarily a function of runs scored and runs allowed, which are what I spent the last week calculating. I've made an occasional manual change to account for particularly strong or weak bullpens that can cause a team to diverge from its Pythagorean record, and to make everything balance at 2,430-2,430..

#20: Texas Rangers (78-84, 860 RS, 888 RA). It's very tempting to see the Rangers as a surprise team this year, what with a confluence of young talent on the way and a front office that is turning the team over to its youth. However, while the position players, many of them imports like Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Nelson Cruz, will boost the offense, the pitchers are a year behind. The Opening Day rotation isn't very good, and it pitches in front of a defense that leaves something to be desired. As much as I like the lineup, Elvis Andrus isn't ready to hit in the majors, and the ongoing fascination with David Murphy puzzles me. They'll sort these issues out in '09, and be my pick to win the West in 2010. And 2011. And 2012.

#19: St. Louis Cardinals (79-83, 772 RS, 788 RA). The problem with the Skip Schumaker experiment isn't that he might not work out as a second baseman. The problem is that the Cardinals need more glove than he's ever going to realistically provide. The Cards' rotation doesn't miss bats, which makes them reliant on their defense; by shifting an outfielder to second and allowing the adventure that is Chris Duncan to win the left-field job, the Cardinals are pushing their defense past the point of being able to back up the staff. The extra runs they'll get from this alignment won't be worth the cost. In general, the pitching staff was over its head last year, and some improvement from the bullpen won't make up for that. Color me skeptical on a Chris Carpenter comeback.

#18: Milwaukee Brewers (79-83, 756 RS, 761 RA). Last year's team returns down half a starting pitcher, as Yovani Gallardo slides into Ben Sheets' slot and no one replaces CC Sabathia. So why such a big decline? The bullpen, shaky a year ago, looks even worse today, although I do like the idea of Carlos Villanueva throwing 110 innings in relief. The seven-righties-and-Prince plan doesn't seem any better in the lineup today than it has the past two years, and while the defense is better than it was in 2007, it's certainly not good. If I'm off here, it's on the high side.