A day late and a dollar short as they say, as the in-season Monday regular feature returns 24 hours late in the first Ten Pack of the year.
Ryan Harvey, OF, and Mark Pawelek, LHP (ex-Cubs)
The Cubs were 26th in this year’s organizational rankings, and that’s mostly due to some really bad draft picks of late. The situation was made all the more glaring by this week’s release of Harvey and Pawelek, a pair of former highly touted first-round selections. The sixth overall pick in 2003, Harvey signed for a $2.4 million bonus, the fourth-highest bonus paid for anyone in the draft that year. The pick was hardly controversial; the Tampa-area product stood 6’5″ and 220 pounds and was a ripped athlete with plus-plus power and an outstanding arm. He led the Midwest League in home runs and RBI in his full-season debut in 2005, but there were already red flags appearing around his game, as he struck out 137 times in 467 at-bats with just 24 walks, leading to a .302 on-base percentage. He went backwards the following two years, and then spent 2007 and 2008 unable to escape the Florida State League while dealing with injuries. Two years after drafting Harvey, the Cubs appeared to have quite a find in Pawelek, when the left-hander that some saw as the top high school pitcher in the draft fell to 20th overall due to bonus concerns, and quickly signed for a slightly over-slot bonus of $1.75 million. Seen as a highly polished product who might move quickly, instead conditioning issues, effort issues, and the occasional ridiculous injury (he broke his non-throwing arm two years ago by tripping over his PlayStation) led to just four innings in a full-season league, and just 149
Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State University
A fourth-round pick by San Diego last year as a sophomore-eligible player, Kipnis was the seventh-highest player not to sign in the 2008 draft. He’s an interesting prospect with a little power and a bit of speed, but pro scouts had problems seeing him as a center fielder, and when he tried to bump up his value by playing in the Cape Cod League during negotiations, it backfired when he had a rough showing in the wood-bat league; he and the Padres never came close to an agreement. Right now it’s looking like it might work out for Kipnis, who could go higher in this year’s draft in a college class that is desperately lacking in hitters. With another great weekend, Kipnis is now batting .469/.569/.914 in 23 games, going 38-for-81 with eight home runs, 20 walks, and 11 stolen bases, and while scouts still question his ability to play in the middle pasture, they’re so desperate for anything resembling a decent performance that he’s rising on many draft boards.
Andrew McCutchen, CF (Pirates)
Overall, the Pirates’ spring training camp was incredibly positive in terms of its tone. Pedro Alvarez looked fantastic in a brief big-league look, third baseman Andy LaRoche finally appears to be ready to fulfill his promise, and the pitching staff, especially Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf, looked sharp. However, the story of the last two weeks was McCutchen, as the former first-round pick ended his spring on a roll, bringing his averages up to .318/.423/.561 before being assigned to minor league camp on Monday. He returns to Triple-A with a few little things left to work on-maintaining his consistent approach, and using his speed on the basepaths more effectively-and provided nothing goes wrong, he should be called up at some point during the season; any team beginning the year with Nyjer Morgan playing every day obviously needs some help in the outfield. This team is going to be a dangerous one offensively in the next two or three years, and players like McCutchen are giving Pirates fans something they haven’t had for years-a glimmer of hope.
Ryan Perry, RHP (Tigers)
Perry has officially faced 65 batters as a professional, but with Joel Zumaya remaining firmly in the ‘broken’ file, we approach April with him still in camp as the favorite to begin the year in the big leagues. One of the fastest risers in last year’s draft, Perry really hasn’t missed a beat since last spring at Arizona, as he’s sat at 96-98 mph with an overpowering fastball while giving up just one run on eight hits over 11
Rich Poythress, 1B, University of Georgia
Poythress began the year as a probable third- or fourth-round pick; he was one of those big college sluggers with hitting ability but few other tools, and a tough going in the 2008 Cape Cod League diminished his value. Now his stock is on fire after the first 25 games of the Bulldogs’ schedule, as the 245-pound beast has been among college baseball’s most feared hitters this year. Despite going 0-for-5 on Sunday, Poythress still had one of the best weekends in the game, going 4-for-4 with two doubles and two home runs on Friday against a very good Tennessee squad, and following that up with two more bombs on Saturday. Now 42-for-94 with 13 home runs and 22 walks, Poythress has a video game-like line of .447/.556/.936 for a team averaging nearly ten runs scored per game. With so few college hitters in the draft, and even fewer performing well, his timing is perfect. He’s already made himself a few hundred thousand dollars with this start, and that number could move into the seven-figure range if he keeps it up.
David Price, LHP (Rays)
I’ve spent the last few years heaping nothing but praise on the Rays, so when I disagree so strongly with a move at first glance, I spend a lot of time trying to figure out what part of the story I’m not understanding. I can’t think of anything, and I’m left shaking my head in disbelief. Price begins the 2009 season at Triple-A Durham, a decision that could cost the Rays a title. The best three teams in the American League, and perhaps in all of baseball, are in the AL East, so no matter how you shake it, one of them will be on the outside looking in come October. Starting Jason Hammel instead of Price is going to cost the team wins that they can’t afford to sacrifice, all in the name of managing his workload and developing his changeup and a slider (the pitches that limited him so much this spring that he allowed one run in 8
Jordan Schafer, CF (Braves)
When the Braves traded Josh Anderson to the Tigers on Monday for minor league side-armer Rudy Darrow, it became clear that Jordan Schafer would open camp as the everyday center fielder. They haven’t made that official yet, but the writing is on the wall. A top prospect entering the season, Schafer’s 2008 was hampered by a strange 50-game suspension for some mysterious involvement with HGH, followed by a slow start upon his return. This spring, he’s looked every bit like the player he was in 2007, batting .373/.403/.542 with gap power, speed, and maturity in the sense that he just looks like he belongs. There are going to be some struggles for Schafer, especially on an approach level-expect few walks and a good number of strikeouts-but it was a case of a perfect storm really, as a struggling, adjusting Schafer will still be better than Anderson or Gregor Blanco.
Travis Snider, OF (Blue Jays)
When asked for fantasy advice during our book tour in support of Baseball Prospectus 2009, the first two words out of my mouth are usually, “Travis” and “Snider.” While currently banged up with a sore knee, Snider has been one of those players that almost every scout in Florida is talking about. He’s shown power to all fields, including a home run that left Legends Field in Tampa that is already legendary, while batting .362/.375/.660 overall. He’s not just one of the best hitting prospects in baseball, he’s the best hitter on the Blue Jays right now, and if he stays healthy, he’s an easy Rookie of the Year candidate.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State University
Talking about Strasburg the pitching prospect is almost becoming boring. I’ve spent the past six weeks talking to scouts and trying to find just one thing that might be wrong with him, and I can’t find it. At this point the far more interesting discussion involves the money. He’s obviously going to get some kind of record-shattering deal, but the $50 million dollars that’s been floating around is just silly. Scott Boras does business in a particular way, and he certainly doesn’t shoot out numbers in March; it’s hard enough to get a number out of him in June. Most industry insiders are guessing at something in the neighborhood of $20 million, and unlike many Boras clients, Strasburg may have an incentive to sign quickly, because if Washington drops him right into the big-league rotation (and every scout thinks he’d be fine, if not very good there), that will get him to free agency much more quickly. That it might take $20 million might seem crazy, but six years of him simply meeting expectations at that price could be the bargain of the century.
Matt Wieters, C (Orioles)
As stated in the David Price portion of this 2009 debut edition 2009 of Ten Pack, the best three teams in the American League are all in the East. Baltimore is not one of those teams. I can understand sending Wieters down to Triple-A, as long as it’s just for a couple of weeks as a way to keep him off the road to free agency, but if he’s still down there in May, the Orioles are wasting time. Luckily, we have evidence that won’t be the case; even at the Winter Meetings, when the Orioles traded Ramon Hernandez, general manager Andy McPhail had said that the trade was made because of Matt Wieters. This is an Evan Longoria-type situation, where the clock is being managed by a team with no chance to win this year, and the ability to sign Wieters to an arbitration-avoiding contract could be made more difficult by the Boras factor. Just be patient Orioles fans, the Greg Zaun era should only last for a few more weeks.
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With the struggles of Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney (and Zumaya's inability to stay healthy)...do you see Ryan Perry as a "dark horse" for closer this season?
Thanks...
Mike Caprio
Keeper League GM
Also, Joe Maddon indicated that he'd prefer Price throws 175 innings this year. Whether that's his wish or the organization's actual target is unclear, though given the current administration's reputation I would presume he's on the same page as the higher-ups: http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/mar/25/rays-option-david-price-four-others-durham/sports-rays/
In an unrelated point, I wonder how many more "replies" we'll have to do before they end up off the side of the page.
Even assuming that either Hammel or Niemann is traded in short order, it's doubtful the Rays will tolerate more than one or two bad starts from the remaining guy before they would recall Price.
But they did almost the same thing last year with Longoria and as inexplicably too at least from the point of view of winning games THIS season. Perhaps they are emboldened by the fact that they managed to get away with the stunt of suddenly pulling an obvious 25-man roster opening day man down to the farm for a few weeks early in the season to save a few bucks ... but this makes no sense on the surface.
Perhaps there's something more than just talent or baseball readiness outsiders aren't privy to; but there wasn't last year was there? It does seem weird though ... and again the Rays have many fantasy players busily retooling a spot in their rosters at the last minute that seemed a sure thing only a few days previous!
The problem with Price is that he already got about a month's worth of service time in last season. So to do the same, you'd have to keep him down well into May, or about a quarter of the season. That's a lot to sacrifice in a tight pennant race. To avoiud Super-2 arbitration status, he'd have to spend over half the season down there. That's not realistic.
Niemann to the Pirates would brighten my day!
I'm not sure how to put a link so here's the site:
http://www.rootzoo.com/articles/view/MLB-Baseball/General/Stephen-Strasburg---The-College-Baseball-Phenom_12575
Or perhaps I missed the sarcasm...?
Therefore, it is not a given that replacing his starts with Niemann's or even Hammel's is a step down. Further, basing an evaluation on the results of 8.1 spring training innings (and I will withdraw my BB comment to make my statement consistent) is hardly legitimate.
I think we need to credit the Rays' staff with judging Price on what they saw beyond those results and give them the benefit of the doubt regarding his readiness to contribute now as a starter.
You are in a severe minority. I'm not saying he's perfect yet, but he's better than the other option(s) on a significant level.
Not saying David Price is Delmon Young by any means, but he DOES have some issues locating consistently. It was pretty obvious in spring training and you could even make a case that some of his strikeouts against the Sox in the ALCS were not exactly on the spot either. Also, the Rays aren't thinking in terms of "What is our best 25 man roster" but "What is our best 30-35 man roster in the event of injury?" Depth at a major league and minor league level last year was a HUGE reason why the Rays beat out the Sox and the Yanks. In a race that's going to be as tight as it looks, that will probably be the case again... that and everyone from the 2008 roster should be even better than they were last year. Having Hammel and Niemann at the major league level and Price in the minors for a month allows the Rays to prepare for any possible injury scenarios (like say, Garza or Kazmir getting injured, which are distinct possibilities.)
Another commentator, Trip Somers, made the following comment in this article: http://www.texasleaguers.com/home/2009/3/28/scouting-stephen-strasburg-san-diego-state-university-in-40.html
"Strasburg has some of the common flaws of traditional pitching mechanics and carries with him the associated risks. These risks will almost certainly not affect his draft status because it could be 10 years before anything goes wrong."
I suppose I'm asking, if possible, for specific comments about the concerns they each raise and/or general thoughts about the applicability of Trip's quote.
Actually,under that logic (and your similar argument re: David Price), the Rays screwed up last year by keeping Longoria down on the farm for a month, since they did indeed have a "chance to win." (Of course, in hindsight it worked out fine, but that doesn't change the argument, does it?)
Screwed up the formatting above, sorry. Kevin wrote:
"This is an Evan Longoria-type situation, where the clock is being managed by a team with no chance to win this year."
Actually, under that logic (and your similar argument re: David Price), the Rays screwed up last year by keeping Longoria down on the farm for a month, since they did indeed have a "chance to win." (Of course, in hindsight it worked out fine, but that doesn't change the argument, does it?)
on another note:I am sick of this whole Arb and free agent service time stuff ruining baseball. Just let the best player play when he is ready to play. Especially with these small market teams. Did Lirano really need to spend that much time down in AAA while Livan ruined the Twins chance at the post season? Stuff like that sucks.
Wieters is ready. Price is ready. McCutchen is ready...let'em play.
Thanks a lot, Branch Rickey.
Wanna throw out a line of Schafer? If he starts walking a bit more, are we talking Mike Cameron here (both offensively and defensively)?
People were not thrilled for some reason. I dont understand it.
Seriously, that's why I read thsi site first thing every day.
Given that the Jays seem destined for a 4th place (at best) finish, keeping Snider in the minors until mid-late May isn't going to hurt them.
I suppose JP figures it won't be his problem in 6 years, so he's going for it all right now and putting his best cards on the table. The all to often "save my job" win-now approach that you mentioned.
There seems to be an assumption that Price would win more games or pitch better than either in that first month. Last year, in his 5 starts to begin the season, Hammel pitched to a 4.32 in the first 4 before a really poor 5th outing. Otherwise, he gave the Rays 6 or 7 full innings every start, something I doubt Price could do (and that also impacts wins and losses), and a chance to win every time. Over the 25 innings, he allowed 23 hits, 8 BBs and 15 Ks, not great but not clearly better than what we might expect from the current David Price.
Incidentally, keeping Longoria down last year is not analogous for various reasons, but it should be noted that in the 7 games Aybar started at 3B before his injury, he did very well, not necessarily worse than Longoria might have done. While Longoria started his major league career very hot, in his initial time in Durham he got off to a very slow start. I think it is too speculative even to guess what he might have done in those same 7 games.
It should not be a surprise to anyone if he has some struggles in his rookie season. Look at Clay Buchholz. It is becoming more and more common for guys to come into the majors as MLB ready regulars or stars. This isnt always the case. There is a lot to adjust to on and off the field for these young men.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/ellsbja01.php
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4727&position=OF
Maybe those are his equivalent Averages.