CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Future Shock: Organiza... (03/18)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: N... (03/18)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: P... (03/23)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Being Like Bud (03/19)

March 19, 2009

Team Health Reports

New York Yankees

by Brad Wochomurka

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Team Health Reports

NEW YORK YANKEES
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Head Trainer: Gene Monahan
Player Days Lost: 1,460
Total Dollars Lost: $31 million
Injury Cost: $40.2 million

Trend: Negative. Monahan has seen plenty of highs and lows during his 36 years as the Yankees' head trainer, so a slight downward trend over the past three years is by no means a crisis. That said, the Yankees did have their issues in 2008, issues that, for the most part, they'll have to deal with again in '09. Alex Rodriguez hit the DL last year for the first time since joining the Yankees, and he'll start out there this season. Fairly or not, Monahan and his staff will likely be evaluated on how well the game's most talked about player comes back from a procedure in which there are really no accurate comps. Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui will have to be watched closely after last year's lost seasons. Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter will try to stave off nagging injuries while keeping their declines as gradual as possible. Can Mariano Rivera do what he does for another year? Plus, a player who is the definition of risk, A.J. Burnett, is now in the mix. Monahan and his staff will have their hands full with all those veterans, and yet their biggest and most important task may be keeping 23-year-old Joba Chamberlain healthy. The team's brand new facilities will be a nice boost for a training staff with a very full plate, and hey, at least there's no more Carl Pavano.

The Shape of the Season:

graph

The Big Question: Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News asks, "Can Joba Chamberlain stay healthy enough to pitch 150-plus innings this season?"

The Yankees are still in the process of stretching Chamberlain out to a starter's workload, so there will be limits on his usage, with 150 innings as his probable goal for '09. The thing is, he has to get there while staying healthy. As Feinsand points out, the Yankees can't afford to have Chamberlain throw just 100-120 innings if they're going to stick to their schedule of turning him into a 200-inning starter within two years. The difference in '09 will be an offseason and spring spent preparing, both physically and mentally, for the role change, and knowing that his role is defined should help Chamberlain. Having CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Chien-Ming Wang ahead of him in the rotation also takes some of the pressure off of him and the team as a whole. Remember, none of those guys were there in the second half last year when the Yankees were fighting for a playoff spot, and that was when it came time for Chamberlain to become a regular starter, so it should be easier this time around for the team to pace him throughout the year.

Fantasy Tip: Everyone has a different theory of how to treat Alex Rodriguez. I say you treat him like the star he is. It's probably not a great idea to use a top five pick on him, but if it's getting into the mid-to-late second round of your draft, I'd be thinking about grabbing him. So what if you have to use Melvin Mora or Adrian Beltre for a month or two? Eric Karabell of ESPN.com will share some insight regarding A-Rod on this week's "Fantasy Friday" edition of BP Radio, so if you're wondering what to do about Rodriguez, make sure you give tomorrow's podcast a listen this weekend. Quick thoughts on some other Yankees: I think Hideki Matsui is being undervalued in drafts. If all he has to do is hit, I like it. I think Robinson Cano's price will reflect his '08 performance, while the numbers he gives you will be closer to '06 and '07. I'm still buying Mariano Rivera. And finally, I hate Chien-Ming Wang; by all accounts he's a nice guy, and I think he'll be healthy, but I don't go after pitchers who give up a lot of hits and don't strike anyone out. Follow the strikeouts, and good things will come, my friends.

C Jorge Posada: Red light No surprise here. Even without the major shoulder surgery Posada underwent last year, most 37-year-old catchers are going to carry heavy risk. With three years left on the big contract he signed last year, the Yanks really had no choice but to shut him down so the rotator cuff and labrum damage in his shoulder could be fixed. He can hit, but can he throw? Posada just started catching Grapefruit League games; keep an eye on how his arm responds heading into April.

LF Johnny Damon: Red light First of all, it's only fair to recognize Damon for being one of the game's true iron men over the last decade. That said, once this type of player starts hitting the DL, they usually don't stop, so Damon's various ailments in recent seasons raise a red flag. He was able to adjust well last year, and he seems comfortable at the 130-140 game level. Losing time at DH will hurt him, but expect the Yankees to find creative ways to give him extra rest during the season.

DH Hideki Matsui: Red light He's 35 and had two of his last three seasons wrecked by injuries, but at least he can take over as the team's full-time DH, right? This is another example of what I mentioned above with Damon. Matsui played in almost 1,800 consecutive games between Japan and the US before his broken wrist in 2006. Since then it's been one injury after another, including operations on both knees. I mentioned earlier that he may be slightly undervalued, but we're talking about a guy whose knees may not allow him to play in the field again, so make sure you understand the risks.

SP A.J. Burnett: Red light Burnett is risk-defined. He's yet to put together back-to-back healthy seasons, though he does seem to have learned how to work around his injuries, as he came back from multiple ailments and pitched well during his time in Toronto. He'll have to do that and then some to justify his new contract in New York.

SP Andy Pettitte: Red light He admitted that he should have gone on the DL at the end of last season due to soreness in his throwing shoulder. In a year where he came clean on HGH use, perhaps he was trying to prove that he could make it through the season on his own. You do have to take his use into account when assessing his risk-especially if his past elbow problems flare back up and HGH is no longer an option.

CL Mariano Rivera: Red light It's the same story with Rivera. Every year, he's rated red, has a few weeks where he gets sore and needs time off, and then comes back and dominates. He did it last year despite pain in his shoulder, and once again, he did it very well.

SS Derek Jeter: Yellow light Age is definitely catching up with the Captain. Most notably, it's affecting his ability to heal, as a few small injuries lingered longer than normal last year. He'll turn 35 in June, and the fact that he isn't red speaks to his durability, but his numbers and at-bats in '08 were as low as they've been since his injury-plagued 2003 season.

RF Xavier Nady: Yellow light Here's a case where doing the noble thing may not always be the right thing. Nady's been plagued by minor injuries throughout his career, and he's shown a tendency to play through them. That's great, but unfortunately those injuries have really affected his performance and led to stretches of sub-replacement-level play. Part of that stemmed from his constant fight for regular playing time earlier in his career. With the likes of Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner on the roster in New York, he'll be able to get days off if he needs them.

SP Chien-Ming Wang: Yellow light As they did with Matsui, the Yankees made the right call by not rushing Wang back into action last year. As a result, he's had plenty of time to rehab his foot, and he looks fine so far this spring. There's always the risk of recurrence with a serious injury like this, and that's what makes him yellow for now, but more and more athletes are making successful returns from this type of injury.

SP Joba Chamberlain: Yellow light See today's Big Question.

RP Damaso Marte: Yellow light Age, an accumulation of minor injuries, and a heavy workload combine to make Marte a bit of a risk. He's already dealt with tight hamstrings, and now has some inflammation in his left shoulder and the left side of his chest this spring.

1B Mark Teixeira Green light

2B Robinson Cano: Green light He underwent an MRI on his (right) throwing shoulder earlier this week after being diagnosed with tendonitis, but the imaging looked fine. Since the hamstring injury in '06, he's been a very durable player. He's hoping that a more rigorous off-season program will help him to rebound from a disappointing '08 during which his desire and conditioning were both called into question by Joe Girardi.

3B Alex Rodriguez: Green light Injuries can happen to even the least risky of players. The hip problem was undervalued by the system since he played through it, leaving him green when we ran the rankings in late January. He's had the 'hybrid' surgery now, and while he'll miss some time at the beginning of the season, there are no comps at all for how he'll come back, or even when. The prognosis is solid, and don't worry-UTK will be full of Rodriguez news until he returns to action. The interesting thing here is that PECOTA catches a comparison of Rodriguez and Henry Aaron, who had a "down" season at a similar age. (Anyone remember why?) One last thing to keep in mind, since we've discussed it already, is the "iron man syndrome" we hinted at with Damon and Matsui; Rodriguez hit the DL last year with a bad quad, and now he'll begin this season on the DL with the hip. Will this be the new norm for him? We'll learn a lot in '09.

CF Melky Cabrera Green light

SP CC Sabathia: Green light Yeah, there's still the same old concern over his immense workload and his equally immense size, but there's been no evidence that either has been slowing him down. Until that happens, he stays green.

Brad Wochomurka is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Brad's other articles. You can contact Brad by clicking here

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

fireorlime

Color me surprised to see Sabathia showing up green.

Mar 19, 2009 09:48 AM
rating: 1
 
nmhesketh

After signing that contract, everything's looking green to CC.

Mar 19, 2009 12:57 PM
rating: 4
 
cbirkemeier

When a team acquires this much injury risk, do they hire more people to their training staff? If not, why don't they? It seems like a pretty small expenditure for a major-league team.

Mar 19, 2009 10:25 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Will Carroll
BP staff

Great point. The answer is largely no. A majority of MLB staffs are still two man, with some three. I can't think of a strict four-man staff, though you could make the argument that some doctors are there more often or that AHP's like some conditioning personnel or massage therapists function as an extender.

Mar 19, 2009 14:28 PM
 
smallflowers

Free Nick Swisher!

Mar 19, 2009 13:51 PM
rating: 1
 
David Coonce

It's interesting that between Damon, Matsui, Swisher, Nady and Posada, The Yankees have more DH's on their roster than starting outfielders. Strange roster construction.

Mar 19, 2009 14:32 PM
rating: -1
 
Richard Bergstrom

Even if Posada is at 75%, he's still better than most fantasy catchers, especially if he gets some extra time at DH.

Mar 19, 2009 16:43 PM
rating: -1
 
Wolfken

I think I will be glad to take Wang as my 5th starter of FB if he falls after 15th round in a 12 man draft. He does not strike out much, but if you have some high K/9 guys in front of him, he is a very good source of W while doesn't hurt you in other categories except K. Many people overlook the importance of W in FB, but generally the W comes very close between teams in a league, and even slightly increase in W can give you considerable edge over other teams. And Wang, known as the win specialist, gives you more then slightly increase in W.

Mar 19, 2009 18:03 PM
rating: -2
 
Pietaster07

I decided to look it up. Hank Aaron's bad season in 1968 was right before they changed the fences in Atlanta. That's my best guess, because although he was 34 years old, he had well over 600 PA

Mar 19, 2009 18:28 PM
rating: -1
 
Sciential

Hank Aaron had a down year in 1968 because it was 1968, a season so notable for its inbalance against hitting that it has its own name. Aaron's adjusted EQA was .332 comapred to .339 the year before and .335 the year after.

Mar 20, 2009 04:07 AM
rating: 0
 
David Coonce

When I saw 1968 that is immediately what I thought of, too. The NL ERA that year was 2.99. Bob Gibson had a 1.12 ERA, while both Bobby Bolin and Bob Veale had ERAs right at 2.00 - Veale's with a losing record. Post-68 Veale and Bolin were league-average or worse. It was a screwy season all around - only 5 hitters batted 300 and nobody haqd a 400 OBP and only three slugged 500 or better, with McCovey topping the list at 520. Only a single player drove in 100 runs, and nobody scored 100. It led to lowering of pitching mounds and certain other changes that launched the much more balanced '70s (before things starting moving in the opposite direction in the '80s and '90s).

I wasn't alive then, but I am kind of obsessed with 1968. I wonder if people watching it at the time enjoyed it or if it was boring?

Imagine if Koufax had lasted two more years. It's staggering to imagine what kind of numbers he'd have put up that year.

Mar 20, 2009 05:44 AM
rating: 0
 
David Coonce

Sorry, just looked it up, McCovey's slg. % was 545 in '68.

Mar 20, 2009 05:45 AM
rating: 0
 
bmbergen
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

That's a lot of reds. Somone has a anti-yankee bias. I can see yellow for Damon, Riveria, and Burnett. Red is just unrealistic. I'd like the see the young Rays succeed but the Yanks don't need all of the above to be all stars to make the playoffs.

Mar 20, 2009 08:16 AM
rating: -9
 
David Coonce

If there's bias it would have to be built into a computer program. These ratings are generated by feeding data into a computer.
I think Burnett defines a "red." His record is just not good.

Certainly the Yankees should make the playoffs, but their roster construction scares me, with so many bad defenders and so many DH candidates.

Mar 20, 2009 11:01 AM
rating: 1
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Future Shock: Organiza... (03/18)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: N... (03/18)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: P... (03/23)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Being Like Bud (03/19)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Rounders: Go Big or Go Home
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 24
Premium Article Daisy Cutter: Carlos Rodon and the White Sox...
Eyewitness Accounts: April 24, 2015
Premium Article Rubbing Mud: Of Signals and Sausages
Raising Aces: Debut Ante: Raisel Iglesias
Painting the Black: No D In Desmond?

MORE FROM MARCH 19, 2009
Premium Article Wait 'Til Next Year: The Week in College Bas...
Premium Article Being Like Bud

MORE BY BRAD WOCHOMURKA
2009-03-29 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Los Angeles Angels
2009-03-26 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Tampa Bay Rays
2009-03-24 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Milwaukee Brewers
2009-03-19 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: New York Yankees
2009-03-17 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Chicago White Sox
2009-03-12 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Houston Astros
2009-03-10 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: St. Louis Cardinals
More...

MORE TEAM HEALTH REPORTS
2009-03-25 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Boston Red Sox
2009-03-24 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Milwaukee Brewers
2009-03-23 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Philadelphia Phillies
2009-03-19 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: New York Yankees
2009-03-18 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: New York Mets
2009-03-17 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Chicago White Sox
2009-03-16 - Fantasy Article Team Health Reports: Minnesota Twins
More...