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March 17, 2009

Future Shock

Organizational Rankings, Part 1

by Kevin Goldstein

16. Kansas City Royals
Last Year's Ranking: 22
Why They Might Be Better Than This: We haven't seen what Eric Hosmer is capable of in a full season; Kila Ka'aihue's tremendous 2008 campaign was for real; young arms like those of Tim Melville, Daniel Gutierrez, and Mike Montgomery provide plenty of cause for optimism.
Why They Might Be Worse: Mike Moustakas might not really be an infielder; Daniel Cortes' inconsistency continues to frustrate; after the big two sluggers in the system, their team is rail-thin as far as position players.
Outlook For 2010: The Royals don't have a top three pick for the first time in five years, but even the 12^th overall pick should net them a significant talent; they have so many young players with room for growth that it's hard to see them moving anywhere but up next year.

17. Seattle Mariners
Last Year's Ranking: 23
Why They Might Be Better Than This: Greg Halman's tools are ridiculously good; Phillippe Aumount was treated with kid gloves last year and is just scratching the surface of his abilities; now that he's signed, 2008 first-round pick Joshua Fields could develop quickly as the team's closer of the future.
Why They Might Be Worse: Halman's strikeout rate is equally ridiculous; while they're a minority, there is still a vocal group of scouts who thinks Aumont profiles better as a reliever; Carlos Triunfel is way overrated.
Outlook For 2010: With the second pick in this year's draft, the Mariners should get an instant elite-level player in the organization this summer, while they have few rookie possibilities for 2009; after moving up seven spots from last year, they could be in line for an equally impressive jump next year.

18. New York Mets
Last Year's Ranking: 28
Why They Might Be Better Than This: The system is improved and has room for even more growth, as six of their Top 11 prospects spent 2008 in short-season leagues, with Latin American infielders Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte both receiving raves from scouts; Brad Holt could be a real steal from the 2008 draft; Ike Davis' miserable debut could be a fluke.
Why They Might Be Worse: Davis' debut was so bad that they can't just write it off; the defensive home of fellow 2008 first-rounder Reese Havens is still uncertain; Holt needs to improve his secondary stuff to avoid being categorized as a reliever; will Fernando Martinez ever stay healthy for an entire year?
Outlook For 2010: Unless something strange happens with Martinez, all of these prospects should still be here come next year, which should move the Mets into the upper half of baseball after years spent near the bottom.

19. Cincinnati Reds
Last Year's Ranking: 7
Why They Might Be Better Than This: Their big investment in Latin America has delivered a pair of high-ceiling outfielders in Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran; Drew Stubbs made significant progress on his contact issues; Chris Valaika's lack of tools underrates him, because he can really hit.
Why They Might Be Worse: Yonder Alonso's struggles versus lefties turns into a real problem; 2007 first-round pick Devin Mesoraco doesn't recover from a sloppy full-season debut; is there a pitcher in the entire system worth getting excited about?
Outlook For 2010: With another top ten pick (eighth overall), Cincinnati gets a shot at adding another premium talent to the system, and after producing so much quality big-league talent last year, the system can afford a little patience.

20. Minnesota Twins
Last Year's Ranking: 18
Why They Might Be Better Than This: Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks give the Twins two premium center-field prospects where plenty of organizations have none; Angel Morales' power is real; a core philosophy of their system that tends to favor command over stuff leaves their arms consistently underrated in scouting circles.
Why They Might Be Worse: While their top five prospects are all position players, the drop-off from there among hitters is massive; Deolis Guerra, one of the biggest names in the Johan Santana deal, faces a make-or-break year; top pitching prospect Shooter Hunt's command troubles hinder his development.
Outlook For 2010: A big year from Hicks and some of the 2008 draftees shining in their full-season debuts could move the system up in these rankings.