Continuing from where we left off earlier in the week, here’s part two of my starting pitching rankings:
Rank Name Team W IP SO WHIP ERA Beta 31. Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 9 165.2 143 1.48 4.66 1.06 32. Randy Johnson Giants 8 127.1 111 1.28 3.82 0.94 33. Edinson Volquez Reds 9 151.1 151 1.38 4.21 1.10 34. Jonathan Sanchez Giants 7 127.2 122 1.37 4.25 1.10 35. Gil Meche Royals 11 187.2 147 1.36 4.23 1.11 36. Aaron Harang Reds 11 183.0 152 1.27 4.22 0.94 37. Carlos Zambrano Cubs 11 169.2 141 1.39 4.12 1.13 38. Ryan Dempster Cubs 11 168.1 143 1.38 4.10 1.12 39. John Danks White Sox 10 169.0 137 1.34 4.27 1.18 40. Justin Verlander Tigers 12 186.1 147 1.35 4.31 1.01
I’d like Ubaldo Jimenez much more if he wasn’t pitching in Colorado, but he’s the one guy there worth taking a chance on, and that’s thanks to his pure stuff. He shaved about half a walk from his BB/9 rate in the second half, but it would be nice to see him lower it further, and to do so permanently to make his WHIP more attractive. Randy Johnson is moving from a severe hitter’s park to one that favors pitchers, a switch that makes PECOTA happy. His projected inning total is still low, but assuming that he can repeat last year’s mark of 184, he’s going to be much more valuable than this initial forecast suggests.
I think Edinson Volquez has a very bright future, but his first and second halves last year were like night and day. His strikeout rate remained above one per nine for the season, but his walk rate was also consistent at 4.3; it just didn’t catch up to him until the second half, when his ERA was over two full runs higher. He also gave up 1.0 homers per nine in the second half, as opposed to the 0.4 mark he posted in the first. While one per nine isn’t that high in a vacuum, it is a problem when combined with his walk rates. He has the potential to be much better than his forecast-his 75th– and 90th-percentile forecasts look like those of a staff ace-but until he can fix that walk rate or be consistent about his homer rate, I feel safer letting someone else over-draft him.
The Giants have their fourth starter in the top 34-now if only they had some hitting. Sanchez was actually a victim of poor luck last year, as his FIP was 3.85, over a run below his actual ERA. He stranded a below-average 68 percent of his baserunners, thanks to his pitching a bit worse from the stretch than he does from the full windup. He did manage to rein in his wildness though, hitting just seven batters last year after having plunked five in a hundred fewer innings in 2007, and he also shaved half a walk off of his walk rate. He’s worth it for the strikeouts, and he should be a better source of ERA this year as well.
Gil Meche’s forecast has his ERA a little higher than I would like, since his FIP had him around the same rate as his 2007 with the Royals. Unless their defense completely hoses him, I can see him repeating last year’s numbers, or doing better. Aaron Harang did much worse after having come into a game as a reliever last year, partially due to a forearm injury and also because of the small sample size. Look for him to improve this year, though he plays in front of a poor defense for a team that may not win him many games with their lineup.
It feels odd ranking Carlos Zambrano this low, but it makes sense when you take a look at his numbers. His strikeouts dropped for the second straight year, down to 6.2 per nine, and he failed to crack 200 innings for the first time since 2002, and that was when he was splitting his time between starting and relieving. His ERA was also better than it should have been, as his FIP was 4.23. If he’s not striking hitters out at the same rate that he used to or getting as many ground-ball outs as he used to, his numbers are going to take a hit, and you have to seriously consider that he’s no longer a true ace.
Ryan Dempster’s improvements are real for the most part, as you can see in our profile of him. John Danks’ low ranking has a lot to do with PECOTA believing that the White Sox are going to be an awful team this year. He’s got a lot of upside as a strikeout/ground-ball guy, but as with Edinson Volquez, most of his production last year came from the first half of the season. He’s capable of being much better than this rank, but I think we’ll see him being drafted too early in a lot of leagues.
A few people wanted to know where Justin Verlander was last week. My question by way of a reply is: What did he do last year that merited the consideration? His mechanics were messed up at the beginning of the season, and he was pitching with his front side flying open; this caused his velocity to be down, while his control was also off. Once he straightened things out, he was a better pitcher, but he still wasn’t the Verlander we had all hoped he’d be when we drafted him. If you’re picking him for 2009, it’s in hopes that he can return to form; that’s certainly possible, but I wouldn’t waste an early pick on a hope so slim.
Rank Name Team W IP SO WHIP ERA Beta 41. Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 10 157.0 146 1.41 4.00 .88 42. Jered Weaver Angels 11 172.1 136 1.32 4.25 .93 43. Jair Jurrjens Braves 10 156.1 115 1.35 4.06 1.13 44. Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox 10 155.0 135 1.37 4.32 1.19 45. Ted Lilly Cubs 10 161.2 139 1.29 4.26 1.09 46. Josh Johnson Marlins 8 135.0 120 1.37 4.10 .98 47. Francisco Liriano Twins 9 145.2 125 1.34 4.16 1.09 48. Chris Young Padres 6 111.0 100 1.30 3.93 1.00 49. David Price Rays 6 102.1 78 1.39 4.20 1.20 50. Wandy Rodriguez Astros 7 123.2 104 1.35 4.32 1.12
The Dodgers should allow Kershaw to pitch more this year, so he could have additional value even without improving his numbers. Lowering his walk rate and striking out a few more guys wouldn’t hurt, though. Jered Weaver had a much higher ERA in the second half last year, but he also struck out 9.6 hitters per nine, a number that seems to have come out of nowhere for a starter who has seen his punchout rate continue to drop. He’s a good, sneaky pick for later rounds, since most people are down on him.
Jurrjens is a relatively good pitcher, but his numbers don’t have that fantasy flash to them since he isn’t a strikeout machine. Still, between his grounders and the guys who do swing and miss, he’s going to post a solid ERA for you; it’ll be nice if he can manage to post a better WHIP for you. Matsuzaka had a great ERA last year, and loads of wins. He probably didn’t deserve either; he walked 5.1 hitters per nine and posted a WHIP of 1.32 despite a BABIP of just .267. This allowed him to strand nearly 81 percent of his baserunners (of which there were many). He’s going to be a good pitcher in 2009, but his ERA should have been well over a run higher than it was. Betting on him to repeat 2008 is not something I would do, especially in the early rounds, where he’ll be drafted for all of those numbers that we know don’t matter in real life.
Lilly’s ERA was better looking than he deserved last year, but he does rack up the strikeouts, and he doesn’t hurt you much in any other stats. He’s a well-rounded fantasy pitcher, and a great complementary piece on a staff. If you could guarantee that Josh Johnson would throw 200 innings, I would have him ranked higher than this. While I don’t think he’s Ricky Nolasco, he is a great starter who can get outs on the ground or by himself. I would like to see Liriano drop the walk rate (it can take time for control to return after Tommy John surgery), but seeing where his velocity was last year, I don’t think we’re going to get the ridiculous version of Liriano again. For what it’s worth, he’s probably the one pitcher I’m going to regret ranking this low come the end of the year, so take that into consideration.
Chris Young didn’t look like his 2007 version, but that was a hard act to follow as it stood. Assuming he can avoid getting pegged in the face by a line drive, he should be a solid option for as long as he remains in Petco. I like David Price a lot, but there are still some questions about whether or not he’ll end up in the Rays bullpen, and we don’t know how he’ll fare as a starter in the majors yet. If we knew the answers to both of those questions, my guess is that he’d be ranked much higher. He’s another player who may be over-drafted based on his playoff performance. Wandy Rodriguez is going to hit the 200-inning mark and actually give us a full season of production someday, right? While his ERA was well above where it should have been, he can still be a useful complement to the starters you picked earlier.
Rank Name Team W IP SO WHIP ERA Beta 51. Johnny Cueto Reds 8 136.0 122 1.40 4.64 1.10 52. Erik Bedard Mariners 7 117.0 116 1.34 3.94 1.00 53. John Maine Mets 6 107.0 89 1.34 4.16 1.08 54. Manny Parra Brewers 8 136.1 111 1.45 4.40 1.13 55. Oliver Perez Mets 9 152.1 144 1.38 4.26 1.00 56. Scott Baker Twins 9 153.0 113 1.33 4.28 1.03 57. Justin Duchscherer Athletics 9 151.0 98 1.26 4.02 1.12 58. Kevin Slowey Twins 10 159.2 115 1.24 4.11 .96 59. Bronson Arroyo Reds 10 177.0 133 1.40 4.65 1.04 60. Mark Buehrle White Sox 11 181.2 112 1.40 4.58 1.09
You’ll know which one of your league mates is thinking about Cueto: his eyes will be darting back and forth repeatedly, from the impressive strikeout rate to the horrifying totals as far as his homers allowed. His walk rates are average, but when combined with all of those long balls, it becomes a problem. He’ll need to lower one of the two going forward to be taken seriously as anything but a source of strikeouts. He was stingier with homers in the second half (1.3 per nine), but more generous with walks (4.0).
Bedard doesn’t need a repeat of 2007 to be a useful fantasy pitcher. He’s still got good stuff, and as long as he’s healthy this year he should be worthwhile, though pitching for the Mariners may limit his win totals; at least they have a great outfield to hunt down his fly balls. John Maine never had a very consistent home/road split, so he may not miss Shea Stadium as much as we would think. His walk rates were ugly last year though, and he lost a few strikeouts. He out-pitched his FIP for two straight seasons, but he was much closer to the mark in ’08, which is worrisome in a “waiting for the other shoe to drop” kind of way.
Manny Parra is another guy who you can draft for strikeouts, but he’s going to hurt your WHIP, and he probably won’t help your ERA much either. He’ll have more value than last year simply by sticking in the rotation. Oliver Perez is the more maddening version of Parra. I like Scott Baker more in real life than I do in fantasy baseball. PECOTA may be a little hard on him, but I’m not much more optimistic, hence his ranking. That doesn’t mean he isn’t worth having around; if you’re playing with 10 teams and have six starters per team, this list is telling you that you want Baker to be one of your six.
Justin Duchscherer’s 2008 was a product of his home park and a wonderful defense, along with his quality pitching. Since the A’s still play in the same park and should still have a great defense, you’d think he would rank higher, but Duke’s entry was going to have the dreaded “if healthy” line in it somewhere even before he began having discomfort in his elbow. If Kevin Slowey could stop giving up home runs, he’d be a great fantasy pick instead of merely a good one, but you have to love a guy who doesn’t walk anyone.
Bronson Arroyo walks a few too many hitters and gives up too many homers to be considered a great starting pitcher option in fantasy, but if he holds on to the increase in strikeouts from last year, he does still have some value as a later pick to shore up your counting stats. Buehrle is another pitcher I like much more in real baseball than in fantasy, as his lone standout number is his ERA. If the White Sox are as poor a team as PECOTA thinks they’ll be, then his win total will suffer, limiting his value.
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However, I have to be wary of Jimenez in fantasy. PECOTA favors him to develop, but he's in a very difficult learning situation. The atmosphere in Coors keeps breaking balls from breaking. His home road splits are ridiculous. Away from home he struck out more than a batter per inning, but he walked 60 people in 95 1/3 inning away! At home it was something like 6.3K/ip and 3.7bb/ip. I can't help but wonder is he's going to struggle to learn what his pitches do, and how to make them do what he wants, when they exhibit totally different behavior in the two environments in which he pitches.
Also, it is hard to believe that only 25 or so pitchers will have an ERA under 4, while last year over 60 SP did.
Name PECOTA IP Depth Chart IP
Milwood 141.3 165
Padilla 147.3 160
McCarthy 68.3 110
Harrison 153.0 125
Feldman 98.3 120
I understand that the Pecota projections are each made in a vacuum and that the Depth chart is supposed to be charting team decisions, but I don't see why the Depth chart thinks that adding 30 IP to all of the pitchers (except harrison, who aparantly loses 30 IP) makes alot of sense. Could you explain the logic here?
That's not to say all four of those Reds pitchers should be where they are, but they're his rankings, not yours.
As for Patrick's comments that the rankings are Marc's and not mine, that's true. If this were a blog devoted to the Cincinnati Reds, it would be perfectly acceptable (IMO)to show such a bias. I always had this website well above that sort of partisanship. I guess I was wrong.
Oh, I'm curious about the threshold thingy. It sort of reeks of censorship.
Granted, there are some spots where PECOTA spits out some wacky projections, not knowing about past injuries or other factors. But that's what the human element is for, so I just don't get some of these rankings, without additional justification. Also, agreed it would be good to know what sort of league set up you're considering, I'm just assuming basic 5x5.
Not true in an AL only league where the pitching is extremely thin after round 8 or 9. If you are stuck without 3 quality guys in those rounds, you will struggle all year with inflated WHIPS and ERA's because you are forced to use 5th starters.
Anyone in an AL only league that has any deeper sleeper thoughts or at least a differing strategy you use?
But then you look at 2007, Wainwright's "healthy" season, and you see a pitcher who gives up more than a hit per inning, doesn't strike many guys out, and has a K/BB ratio of less than 2:1. That's the very definition of a LAIM, and while those guys can stumble into the occasional 17-win season, they're not guys I would put all my stock into, fantasy-wise. Especially on a bad team.
do this - watch someone take him in the 12th round of your draft and see what happens.
I will agree that Wainwright throws hard, but the evidence, as presented by his one healthy season, shows him to be a league-average pitcher. Until he sustains his first-half success last year over a full major-league season, I think it's reasonable to be skeptical.
I'm assuming his lack of any predictable past is why the PECOTA system doesn't like him.
There's no logical explanation for leaving him off the list. He is significantly better than atleast most of the second day pitchers listed, and I can make a strong case he is superior to a nice amount of the first day starters listed.
And you talk about his lack of track record? You know how many pitchers he has on these list ahead of him that track record isn't nearly as good as Wainwright's? Nor is there stuff even remotely close. Wainwright has top of the rotation stuff, and has performed like a ace for over a calender year. Comparing him to Aaron Small is the dumbest thing I've seen typed this week.
Aaron Small went 10-0 with a 3.2 ERA one year. Adam Wainwright went 11-3 with a 3.2 ERA last year. Wainwright is obviously better. But you can't just say "look at him, his stuff is great, and he's been good for a WHOLE YEAR" and expect everybody to agree that all of a sudden he's Tom Seaver. Or whomever. He's a guy who's had a good half-season. He needs to show more than that for any computer model worth its salt to respect.
And if you think what I typed is the "dumbest thing you've seen all week" you should check out Michelle Malkin or, ummm, Kanye West's blog.
He also finished well down the stretch last year, so it's hard to understand why he's considered such an injury or flop risk.