A few weeks ago, I was a guest of “Fantasy 411” on MLB.com’s Baseball Channel with Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz. It was a good time, as it always is when friends get together and talk baseball, and one of the things that made it fun was the debate. Cory and I got into a discussion of the second slot in fantasy drafts, with him saying that Alex Rodriguez was the pick, and me making the case for Jose Reyes.
The consensus top pick this year in mixed leagues of usual size (12 teams) and format (five categories each for hitting and pitching) is Hanley Ramirez. There are some dissenters-ESPN.com has Alex Rodriguez at the top, based on yesterday’s scroll on the network during the Astros/Braves game-but Ramirez’s combination of power, speed, average, and shortstop eligibility carries the day for most. Once you get past Ramirez, though, there are disagreements, and not only are Reyes and Rodriguez involved, but some people, such as Will Carroll, stump for Albert Pujols. Here are the three players’ projected fantasy stats, pulled from the Player Forecast Manager:
AB AVG R HR RBI SB Rodriguez 547 .282 99 30 100 18 Reyes 613 .309 120 15 73 64 Will's Guy 540 .339 124 35 122 7
Pujols has the prettiest stat line. He also plays the position at which the replacement level is highest. I’m sure there’s a strong case to made for him ahead of the other two, but there’s no way I can justify taking a first baseman with one of the first three picks of a fantasy draft. In a bigger league, perhaps, but you blow off first base in a 12-team mixed league and end up doing well for yourself. The 13th-best first baseman in PFM, Derrek Lee, is projected to go .289/80/18/81/7. Yes, there’s a cost, but that’s still a good player.
Let’s make the case for Reyes. My primary argument is a positional one. This is no longer 1999; shortstop is not a place where you have tons of great offensive talent, so getting an impact player at shortstop gives you an edge on the competition. Moreover, third base is a very deep position now, comparable to first base in offensive talent, so waiting to take one is less damaging now than ever before. Per PFM again, the 13th-best third baseman, Kevin Youkilis, will bang out a .275/80/20/82/3 line, which will play quite nicely at third.
To make a more rigorous comparison, let’s look at what happens when you pick either player. If you take Reyes, you have to fill the third-base slot with someone else. If you take Rodriguez, you need a shortstop. To get an idea of what’s left, I took the average of the next ten shortstops listed after Reyes (remember, one team has Hanley Ramirez already) and the next 11 third basemen listed after Rodriguez. As an aside, note that PFM actually has Reyes rated ahead of Ramirez, and David Wright ahead of Rodriguez. Wright is included in these averages.
If you take Jose Reyes, this is what you can expect to get from the left side of your fantasy infield:
AB AVG R HR RBI SB Reyes 613 .309 120 15 73 64 3B 536 .281 84 25 90 6
If you take Alex Rodriguez, this is what you can expect to get from the left side:
AB AVG R HR RBI SB Rodriguez 547 .282 99 30 100 18 SS 526 .286 78 12 64 12
Adding it up:
AB AVG R HR RBI SB Reyes+3B 1149 .296 204 40 163 70 Rodriguez+SS 1073 .283 177 42 164 30
This is actually not as close as I expected it to be. Taking Reyes instead of Rodriguez will leave you essentially even in home runs and RBI, and way ahead in average, runs, and steals. The incredible depth at third base this season is the primary cause of this-there is a big group of guys who are projected to hit 20-25 homers with appropriate attending production stats-but even if the “taking Rodriguez” line were ahead on power, there’s just no way to make up 40 stolen bases.
That’s just the statistical argument. There is also the gap in the players’ ages. Reyes turns 26 in June, putting him at just about his peak with some growth expected. He still has upside left in him, particularly when it comes to his batting average and power. Rodriguez turns 34 in August, and as Nate Silver pointed out earlier this week, he also may already be in decline. I hesitate to go that far for one of the greatest players ever, but I will say that there’s much less chance that Rodriguez outperforms his projection than there is that Reyes does. You win fantasy leagues by finding the guys who over-perform.
I’m no fantasy expert, as my career in Tout Wars has shown. However, in this case, I think I’m on the right track. Hanley Ramirez is clearly the top pick, and if you’re sitting second, you have to go with the 26-year-old shortstop who can be a category killer. Any other choice is wrong.
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So if you spend the second pick on Pujols, you could have an infield of: Pujols, Aramis Ramirez (3rd round, usually) and JJ Hardy.
Or you could have David Wright, Berkman/Morneau/Adrian Gonzalez, Stephen Drew.
To my mind, once HanRam is gone, SS isn\'t worth a first round pick.
Any insight as to how to adjust Reyes\'s forecast if he ends up batting thirs in the Mets\' lineup? Would you still think of him as a \'category killer\'? Would he not run less?
Besides, if you draft a properly balanced team after taking Pujols, you\'ll still be screwed if he gets hurt.
Also, if you\'re waiting 6 more rounds (on average) before drating a 3B or SS, then yeah, you won\'t get much of a player. However, the dropoff from a round 1 OF or 1B to a round 7 OB or 1B isn\'t as drastic as a round 1 3B or SS to a round 6 3B or SS.
Not really my argument. But I know what you\'re saying. I was basically saying I wouldnt use position depth as a reason not to draft Pujols. If I think hes better than Reyes I take em, if not, then I dont. One could play the postion scarcity card, but when it comes to the guys were discussing, Im taking the best player.
The thing about SB\'s is that a lot of the guys who get \'em will kill you in every other category. Last year, only 37 hitters had 20 or more SBs, including Taveras, Bartlett, Gathright, Matsui, Pierre, Rajai Davis, Izturis, Bourn....blecch. Very few SB guys contribute anything else, and if you don\'t get at least one of those, well...Taveras, Bartlett, Gathright...
Also, there\'s some double think in tossing Pujols on the grounds that 1B is deep when 3B is at least (probably more) deep this season.
I agree with those who\'ve said a more interesting comparison is Reyes vs. Pujols. But I\'m going to side with you on this one and say Reyes over Pujols. Those steals are worth a lot and give you the flexibility not to worry a great deal about SBs in any of your other selections.
I usually like your work but you\'re really not a fantasy baseball guy right? I say this because, your analysis is clearly flawed. \"no way I can justify taking a first baseman with one of the first three picks of a fantasy draftâ€. You then go onto show the replacement level for 1B and 3B.
To me Youk and Lee’s stat lines are essentially the same (nod to Lee in BA). However Pujols destroys AROD, unless you truly value those 9 steals so much, which I think is a little crazy. I’ll take the 60 points in BA and 25 extra runs any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
I know you’re arguing for Reyes, but Pujols + Youk >AROD + Lee, based on these stats. So think twice before you consider AROD and throw out Pujols in the top 3.
That being said, I look at fantasy baseball similar to how major league teams look at the amateur draft... In the first round especially, take the best player possible. I tend to go for all-around players and non-pitchers, weighing in position scarcity to an extent.
On the other hand, I don\'t like picking second in a draft either, though it\'s better than picking in the middle of the round.
*couldn\'t resist*
That said, my expectations are for bigger numbers than that for A-Rod, something like .290-110-35-110-15 if not a little better. I think that would skew the overall numbers a little more evenly or perhaps favorably.
In any case, thanks for giving the chance to provide a little rebuttal, although me getting into any debate with Joe Sheehan is like bringing a slingshot to a shootout...
--Cory
Am I the only person who finds that statement to be way off? I know Reyes is only 26, but he\'s basically been the same hitter for the past three years and I don\'t see him improving much more. A-Rod on the other hand has a forecast of 30 home runs, even though he\'s hit 35 in two of the past three years, and 48+ in two of the past four. He\'s also been a .300+ hitter in three of the past four seasons, and can easily exceed his .282 projection.
I know PECOTA is the most accurate system for projecting players, but it\'s very pessimistic of A-Rod. He not only has a good chance of exceeding the projection, but he has a shot of outperforming it by a huge margin. Reyes is a pretty safe bet to come close to what PECOTA indicates, but does anyone really see him outperforming that projection by much more than a small amount? I sure don\'t.
And yeah, PECOTA looks way off on A-Rod.
If Arod goes out and hits .320 with 50 hr and 150 rbis... then does this analysis still work out?