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February 10, 2009

Transaction Analysis

All the Moves

by Christina Kahrl

IN THIS ISSUE

American League

Boston Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
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Toronto Blue Jays

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BOSTON RED SOX
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Agreed to terms with C-S Jason Varitek on a one-year, $5 million contract, with a mutual option for 2010; outrighted 1B/OF-R Jeff Bailey to Pawtucket (Triple-A), but invited him to spring training as a NRI. [2/6]

Re-signing Tek has to be about the worst instance of smoking them because you've got'em after blowing it by not landing Mark Teixeira. Spending money for its own sake because you didn't spend it on things that actually help you represents, what, a bad investment on a depreciating asset that's supposed to make the Red Sox eligible for TARP assistance? Speaking as a weak-hitting veteran of a bad bank's softball team (Banzai Daiwa!), maybe the proposals to build a really bad bank will require a softball team, and then (of course) a team captain and backstop of appropriately expensive stature.

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17 comments have been left for this article.

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code of conduct

ithistle

(10172)

"Add in the questions over whether they'll have a shortstop who hits enough to hold his job,"

Huh? Last I checked, Jed Lowrie hit for a .739 OPS in his rookie season with a broken wrist. He had a possibly lucky .328 BABIP (not sure what his minor league BABIP was), but PECOTA projects him for a .773 OPS, which is the highest among AL shortstops. Jeter's projected for a higher OBP, so he may be more valuable, but unless you strongly disagree with this projection I'm pretty sure Lowrie will hold his job.

Feb 10, 2009 13:04 PM

rating: 3

Nathan

(28175)

No thoughts on Zack Grienke?

Feb 10, 2009 13:20 PM

rating: 0

R.A.Wagman

(32721)

Update - The Padres have just traded Matt Bush to the Jays for futures or cash - the Jays continue to stash cast-offs - this is their 2nd 1st overall draft choice of this offseason after picking up Bullington off waivers earlier.

Feb 10, 2009 13:35 PM

rating: 1

tomholden

(518)

I love the Stephen King link in the D'Backs paragraph; it makes it look like Nationals' minor-league shortstop Stephen King somehow generated some celebrity for Tom Gordon. LOL

Feb 10, 2009 14:23 PM

rating: 1

James Martin Cole

(31941)

I'm glad other people noticed that. I was going to try to work out some joke about Steven King in the lineup being a more frightening for Nats fans than one of his namesake's novels, but this is probably for the best.

Feb 10, 2009 15:28 PM

rating: 0

mymrbig

(38334)

What makes you say Murton is not a good outfielder? His career UZR/150 is 9.3, which is basically 1 win above average for a LF.

Combine that with a league average bat (2008 was atrocious and was partly bad luck and small sample size, but his body of work before that was league average for a corner outfielder, just built more on OBP than SLG).

He's an average or better corner outfielder who just doesn't get a shot. And while his platoon splits aren't great (.277/.340/.403 vs. RHP 2006-08), the OBP is high enough that he isn't terrible.

Feb 10, 2009 14:28 PM

rating: -1

Christina Kahrl

BP staff

(11)

I always wonder about the emotional investment a lot of us in the stathead community have made in Murton, only to struggle to let go of it. Take the name out of it: do you really think that that a .340 OBP and .403 SLG is good enough to start in left field against the majority of starting pitchers in the league? Really?

As for Murton's fielding, I should amend my comment to note that it was his work in right that wasn't good, which leaves you with... a decent-fielding left fielder who doesn't hit right-handers well enough to help you win unless you've got an infield chock full of All-Stars. And you want that starting for you?

Again, the problem with Murton isn't that he's useless, it's that he's not a very good regular. As I've noted originally, he might be an OK placeholder, and a perfectly OK platoon partner. But when you're essentially limited to left and you don't hit right-handers especially well for a left fielder, that's a pretty big pair of stumbling blocks when it comes to getting and then holding down a roster spot in the era of six- or seven-man bullpens.

Feb 13, 2009 00:53 AM

UofIx3

(18712)

Given Kennedy's good glove last year (+19 in the Fielding Bible), I don't think the Cardinals can find someone who will outhit Kennedy's (admittedly meager) offensive production while also taking into account the likely negative impact on defense.

Kennedy must have insulted some of TLR's pets :)

Feb 10, 2009 16:05 PM

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

(36532)

I was surprised there were no comments on Varitek's "flex" option where, if the team exercises it, Varitek gets $5 million and if Varitek exercises it, he gets $3 million plus incentives. I'd never seen a contract like that before... Does anyone know of any other examples?

Feb 10, 2009 16:59 PM

rating: 0

hotstatrat

(22689)

The alarming story on those Blue Jays transactions is more about the "junk" they trimmed in order to make room for the "other people's junk". Both Curtis Thigpen and Russ Adams were once highly prized prized Blue Jays prospects.

Feb 10, 2009 18:56 PM

rating: 0

Christopher Taylor

(37350)

I don't think there's anything alarming about what's happened to Curtis Thigpen or Russ Adams. Now there's JP Arencibia and Justin Jackson... yawn.

Also Beam in the pen? Again BP shows its absolute lack of knowledge about the Jays, the Jays have too many arms in the pen if anything right now. Heck Jason Frasor, who just got a big arb award, might even be on the outside looking in.

Just because the Jays are short one starter, doesn't mean their pen is suspect. Get real Ms. Kahrl.

Feb 10, 2009 20:44 PM

rating: -3

hotstatrat

(22689)

Having a bad day?

The Jays seem to be on a streak of endless competence coming from the mound. It could be any combination of Arnsberg, the scouting, or the defense that deserves the credit.

Feb 10, 2009 21:33 PM

rating: 1

Christina Kahrl

BP staff

(11)

Actually, I was imprecise, about as roughly as your complaint was, because we both danced around what I guess I identify as a problem that Beam might help address: the Jays may not be short of relievers in general as much as they're specifically short on reliable right-handers. You and I might like Jason Frasor's potential for bouncing back from a lousy '08, but he certainly seems to keep finding ways to fall out of favor. Jeremy Accardo was pretty good when healthy in 2007, but we'll have to see how healthy he is this spring. And after those two, we get to... Shawn Camp? The excitement that is Brandon League during his sporadic bits of health and effectiveness, and Brian Wolfe's limited success in a low-profile ROOGY role... and... I guess nobody who resembles a good, established right-handed reliever. Casey Janssen's comeback from shoulder surgery seems to be going well, but it also looks like he's headed for the rotation (and a good thing, that).

Now, this isn't the sort of thing that's going to loosen the Jays' choke hold on fourth place--indeed, as a matter of intriguing player selection, maybe running with a heavily left-leaning pen can work just as well as a heavily right-leaning one, if the quality of the lefties is as good as the Jays' trio of B.J. Ryan, Jesse Carlson, and Scott Downs was last year. It's an interesting risk to take, given the number of lefty mashers most teams can summon up to go after any group of southpaws. But as you're right to note, the results weren't too shabby last year, what with the Jays leading the majors in FRA and ARP last year:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=452380

Feb 13, 2009 00:41 AM

chico123

(3843)

Oleoay - Foulke's contract with the Sox was similar to Tek's.

A fact that was not part of the analysis is that Josh Bard's contract is not guaranteed.

Feb 11, 2009 05:56 AM

rating: 0

Christina Kahrl

BP staff

(11)

True, but I discussed Bard's contract when I assessed that transaction a few weeks back: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8443#BOS

Feb 13, 2009 00:19 AM

Rob_in_CT

(25572)

"but the Yankees already have a solid set of catching prospects..."

I think that's the first time I've ever heard that particular phrase. I'd love for it to be true.

Feb 11, 2009 06:59 AM

rating: 0

Rauseo

(4727)

CHONE projects Varitek and Bard to have the same line with very similar percentile projections. While I was bearish on Varitek at first when looking at the details I saw no reason to complain. Maybe Chris could have done the same. Or maybe pecota see something different, but it shouldn't be vastly different.

Feb 11, 2009 09:26 AM

rating: 0

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