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February 10, 2009 BP Fantasy BeatFirst Base
This year, I'm going to change the format of the fantasy rankings a bit. Instead of lumping positions into sections such as infield or outfield and putting then together in a few large articles, I'm going to go position by position. This may take longer, but we are starting earlier this year, and we're also running two Fantasy Beat pieces per week. This will allow me to fulfill an oft-repeated request from readers of last year's rankings, which was to provide longer lists in order to give a better idea of what I thought about more players, as well as making things easier on those who choose to play in AL- or NL-only leagues. Today, we'll start with first base. This position is in a transition phase, as many of the up-and-coming sluggers of years past are entrenched within the top ten, while many of the former standouts for the position have fallen towards the back of the list. There's not much of an injection of new blood though, as many of these players have been around for a few years. You're going to see names that you recognize, but the generational shift in power is in full force. In order to make these rankings, I used the 2009 weighted-mean PECOTA projections as a base, and then tweaked things as I saw them. This isn't a descending list of projected 2009 VORP by any means. Remember to check out the players' 75th- and 25th-percentile forecasts on their PECOTA cards once they're released as well, as those will help you make decisions between players you may be debating over. Rank Player Team PA R HR RBI SB AVG/ OBP/ SLG Beta 1. Albert Pujols Cardinals 663 126 35 124 7 .339/.443/.609 0.78 2. Lance Berkman Astros 620 104 28 97 11 .299/.402/.534 0.84 3. Mark Teixeira Yankees 647 94 28 102 2 .287/.379/.506 0.89 4. Ryan Howard Phillies 631 96 40 110 0 .270/.374/.547 1.10 5. Miguel Cabrera Tigers 651 94 32 111 3 .294/.369/.527 0.95 6. Prince Fielder Brewers 661 99 33 105 3 .286/.380/.527 0.95 7. Joey Votto Reds 574 88 26 86 11 .289/.370/.514 0.99 8. Adrian Gonzalez Padres 649 83 27 99 1 .277/.356/.480 0.93 9. Carlos Pena Rays 600 80 30 91 1 .239/.359/.476 0.92 10. Chris Davis Rangers 574 70 29 93 4 .259/.312/.490 0.97 I don't think it's a surprise that my first-base fantasy rankings would lead off with the best player in all of baseball. He's a force of nature whether he's playing hurt or healthy, and according to his Beta he's also one of the safest picks to meet that forecast. If you play in a league where defense counts, he's somehow even more valuable thanks to his excellent play with the glove. His offensive numbers across the board are basically a lock to all be top-five worthy or better, and the seven steals, a solid output from this position, are an added bonus. Lance Berkman and Mark Teixeira are both switch-hitters who are consistently among the most valuable at the position, and they'd receive more recognition if the best player on the planet wasn't looking down on them year in and year out. I put Berkman first because of the projected difference in stolen bases. I think PECOTA may be a bit low on Teixeira. If nothing else, he's a player whose 75th-percentile forecast is worthy of significant interest once it's released.
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Will a player like Miquel Cabrera, who has 3rd base elgibility in yahoo leagues, be ranked at 3rd in you positional rankings also? In addition, does that make him more valulable than Tex and Berkman?
Are you sure 2009 Yahoo will have Cabrera eligible at 3rd still? He only made 14 starts at 3B last year, and he's going into spring training as the definite 1B for the Tigers, which I think Yahoo takes into consideration when choosing position eligibility at the start of the season.
i thought it was 5-game elig. from the prior yr for Yahoo.
I have always believed that Yahoo used a 10 game minimum from the prior year to establish position elgibility. I may be mistaken. Does anyone know if it is actually 15?
http://help.yahoo.com/l/us/yahoo/baseball/season/status/baseball-09.html
"At the beginning of the Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball season, Yahoo! Sports placed all players into positions based in part on information from official rosters, but focusing mainly on past performance."
If you have 5 starts or 10 appearances at a new position during the season they will add you.
As for the beginning of the season positions, it just has that vague quote above, so it is hard to tell.
In Yahoo's "mock expert draft" for '09, one of the reasons the writer that took Cabrera 9th gives is "He’ll be just 25 on opening day, he’s eligible at first or third in Yahoo! leagues" so it looks likely he will be.
If Cabrera's eligible at third, then Adam Dunn should be eligible at first. He played in 19 games there last season.