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February 4, 2009

Future Shock

Indians Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

top 11 prospects

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt LaPorta, LF
2. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
3. Nick Weglarz, LF
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Miller, RHP
5. Beau Mills, 1B
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
7. David Huff, LHP
8. Trevor Crowe, OF
9. Carlos Rivero, SS
10. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS
11. Michael Brantley, CF/1B

Just Missed: Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP; Wes Hodges, 3B; Luis Valbuena, 2B

Ranking Challenges: The upper half of the list was made up of a pretty clear-cut group of players, though many had different orders in mind. While the Indians don't have many wow-level guys, what they do have is impressive depth. Keep in mind that many team's lists hit the two-star prospects level within their Top 11, but with Cleveland it wouldn't show up until around the 20^th player, and one official admitted that, even internally, you could ask seven people in the organization to rank the eighth- through 11^th-best prospects and get back seven very different responses.

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21 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

lapaman

(23543)

Kevin, do you really think Santana is so much better than Flowers to grant him 2 extra stars?

Feb 04, 2009 09:16 AM

rating: -1

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Yes, yes I do. That's why I did it.

Feb 04, 2009 10:05 AM

chasingboston

(46713)

Kevin,
Was that the most ridiculous question you've been asked here?
Sorry lapaman, but it was kind of obvious.

Feb 04, 2009 10:50 AM

rating: -3

Rob in Alaska

(32088)

I realize Santana has strong scouting reports, but I'm wondering how much consideration was given to his really high BABIP (in both leagues) when evaluating the significance of his performance numbers?

Feb 04, 2009 09:29 AM

rating: 0

DGBL

(32998)

Do you (or the people you've spoken to) believe that Rondon has the capacity to improve his secondary pitches? In some ways, it seems like he's ahead of the curve now. He'll be in AA next year and just 21 the whole season.

Rondon just strikes me as someone who could skyrocket up industry lists after the 09 season.

Feb 04, 2009 10:03 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

He could, as could Kelvin De La Cruz. It's important to note that it doesn't mean he WILL. Every team has that guy or guys who COULD explode, but only a few do.

Feb 04, 2009 10:51 AM

alskor

(39403)

Damn... any chance you want to give us a quick write up on De La Cruz?

You know... that would make for a great article. I know youre swamped trying to finish the top 11s right now... but Im always unhappy when I see a guy in the "Just Missed" who Im curious about. I would love to see your write ups on the top 11 (or 33 or whatever!)guys around baseball who "just missed." Complete with "the Good" "the Bad" and perfect world projections, etc...

Its a bummer when I dont get to see your complete write up for someone like De La Cruz. Instead we have to read about the Tigers 11th best "prospect." Your write ups are my first stop all season long and I usually punch something when I see the guy Im looking to read about just missed the list.

Heck, I wouldnt care if this article came in April even. There's nothing going on with prospects then and Im always dying for the Monday Ten Packs to start... it would be great to read about the next level of prospects, even if it was just quick write ups. I realize this is probably the worst time to ask you about this, what with you rushing to finish the AL and probably sick of making phone calls... but think about it!

Feb 04, 2009 11:43 AM

rating: 0

Aaron/YYZ

(34268)

KG, I'm somewhat surprised to see Carmona atop the list given his struggles and to see Asdrubal Cabrera so high on the list as well. Does the ARL argument and his glove make him that special?

Feb 04, 2009 10:43 AM

rating: 0

alskor

(39403)

I am slightly surprised by Carmona. I was more surprised to find Asdrubal so LOW, frankly. He's held his own in the majors at a very young age and has shown improvement. He's a patient hitter already and a plus plus defender. Id put him above Weglarz and Adam Miller. Miller I just dont believe can stay healthy and Weglarz is looking awfully Garko-esque.

Feb 04, 2009 11:45 AM

rating: 1

Aaron/YYZ

(34268)

My suspicion on Asdrubal is that he's the type of player that flies under the radar a bit because people under value his patience/defence while over-valuing his lack of power/speed and counting numbers (I think PECOTA has him as a .270/.340/.420 player with approx 10HR/10SB, which is a nice player when he's +2-3 wins defensively but not someone that people get jazzed up about)

Feb 04, 2009 12:09 PM

rating: 0

jpmile

(16157)

How close was Jon Meloan to making the top 10? Do you see him making the Indians bullpen this year?

Feb 04, 2009 11:00 AM

rating: 0

Dr. Dave

(1652)

I love the scouts-vs-PECOTA throwdown that Fausto Carmona represents.

PECOTA is very bearish: it projects him as about the 100th-best starting pitcher in MLB, with an EqERA of 4.76, a 25% "Collapse" chance, and an 18% attrition chance. Favorable comps Kevin Brown and Scott Erickson are offset by Zach Day and Andy Hassler. Upside is a very ordinary 55. In fact, PECOTA would rather have Todd Wellemeyer, Dana Eveland, Jesse Litsch, Oliver Perez, Andy Sonnanstine, John Maine, Paul Maholm, or Kyle Lohse going forward.

It would be great to see Carmona prove PECOTA wrong... but I don't think I'm ready to bet that way.

Feb 04, 2009 11:54 AM

rating: 1

rusty1098

(26409)

I'm rather surprised not to see Luis Valbuena on this list. While not not very defensively minded, he does show promise of power from a middle infielder.

Feb 04, 2009 13:27 PM

rating: 0

mwashuc06

(47497)

Do you have any opinions on Trey Haley, Zach Putnam, and House as they were 2008 draft picks?

Feb 04, 2009 13:46 PM

rating: 0

Hal Bent

(31485)

And to think...all we Boston Red Sox fans for a few months had mad love for Andy Marte and were ready to anoint him the future power-hitting infielder superstar!!!

Feb 04, 2009 15:52 PM

rating: 0

Slingerland65

(26939)

Did anyone else have trouble downloading the interview with Chris Antonetti? I only got the first 10 seconds of the interview.

Feb 04, 2009 16:09 PM

rating: 0

Slingerland65

(26939)

Oh, and by the way, thanks Kevin. I love to read about all the teams top few prospects, but when you get to my beloved Tribe it's like Christmas. It seems like the Shapiro regime always has more quality depth in their system than any other team, but is usually short on lights-out talent. Last one we drafted was CC. Just bad luck not drafting five star guys, or does it speak to their strategy?

Feb 04, 2009 16:14 PM

rating: 1

ufoboy90

(31955)

Really curious to know about Meloan's future role and where he would have ranked. I thought he was seriously underrated coming into last season, and he pitched just OK enough that I still have some faith in him.

Will he end up at the front or back of an MLB bullpen?

Feb 04, 2009 23:57 PM

rating: 0

Gotribe31

(22889)

I'm wondering how Trevor Crowe is ranked ahead of Brantley? Brantley has put up better numbers at the same level as Crowe, and at a younger age. I'm a big Indians fan, but I don't see Crowe as a top-15 prospect in the organization right now.

Feb 05, 2009 08:24 AM

rating: 0

hotstatrat

(22689)

In the analysis of what in place at catcher and first-base, you seem to be ignoring that a pretty decent defensive catcher Kelly Shoppach hit a combined OBA+Slg. of .865 last year. Sure, his BA/BiP was high, but it always has been. Why does he get so little respect? Why wouldn't the Indians make him the primary catcher and Victor the primary first-baseman to keep him healthy?

Feb 05, 2009 08:58 AM

rating: 0

SaberTJ

(10045)

Because it's not likely Martinez's bat is worth sticking at first base full time. And the Indians have PLENTY of offensive first baseman in the system.

Mar 02, 2009 07:22 AM

rating: 0

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