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February 2, 2009

BP Fantasy Beat

Mound Quandaries

by Marc Normandin

Last week we took a look at some of the hitters who were switching leagues, and what the changes in competition, park factors, and lineups would do to affect their fantasy value. This time around we'll do the same for a few of the pitchers who have swapped circuits.

Mark Hendrickson has been a starter for much of his career, but it should be obvious by now that the 35-year-old is not very successful at it. The Marlins noticed this in 2008 and bumped him to the bullpen, where he was more effective than he had been as a starter; this shouldn't be a surprise, given his body of work in the past, as well as his limited repertoire and velocity. Losing Hendrickson to the pen was no blow for fantasy owners, since his value in the rotation was limited, even in the weaker NL and pitching in a park that favored hurlers over hitters.

Now he's back in the American League East, pitching for Baltimore, the third team he's been with in the division. It's hard to believe, but according to the O's depth chart at MLB.com, Hendrickson is not only in the rotation, but he's initially rated as their second starter behind Jeremy Guthrie. Now, admittedly the starters behind Guthrie have yet to be determined as the Orioles attempt to pick a rotation from a large number of candidates, and Hendrickson's competition is not exactly made up of standouts (Danys Baez, anyone?)

PECOTA thinks that this is a bad move for both Hendrickson and Baltimore, forecasting a weighted mean ERA of 5.27. To make things worse, that projection considers him as a part-time starter and reliever, indicating that things might look even bleaker were he to start all season long—remember that the average ERA for relievers is lower than it is for starters.

If Hendrickson does ultimately win a spot in the O's rotation, you're going to want to avoid the temptation of picking him up just because he'll be getting innings early on. Keep in mind, many of those frames are going to be against potentially the three best teams in the league: the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees. Hendrickson is going to get hammered and he'll have a hard time racking up wins, especially since Baltimore is expected to finish in last place.