One issue I have is that Cabrera's K/9 was down tremendously last year. While Eric is right that his 3-year trend is 7.1 K/9, in 2008 this number was down to an anemic 4.7 K/9, thus matching his walk ratio for a dismal K/BB of 1. Not promising numbers, especially if the trend is to continue.

One thing that's missing is Cabrera's performance over time, specifically the 2008 season. By the end of the year he wasn't throwing a 93 mph fastball, it was often in the high 80s. And he was getting hammered almost every start.

That's almost surely part of the reason he was non-tendered. Unless he had some easily correctable problem, you should re-run your analysis with the assumption that his fastball lost about four ticks.

This is fascinating stuff. Great work.

I think Cabrera was pitching with a hurt arm last season. His performance got worse as the season went along.

Another difference between these two pitchers is Perez has had some good seasons while Cabrera never really has.

I really loved the comparison of the differences between 2 pitchers that reach the same results. I sometimes start thinking a player is the numbers and this reminds me of how many different ways there are to get somewhere. please consider doing something like this for individual games - comparing starting pitchers styles and results as well as looking at similar pitchers.

Maybe a variation on the game of the week idea.

More stuff like this. I found this one of the most interesting things I've read in a while. There may be some more work needed (I think the injury comments and velocity decrease are worthy of some analysis), but overall a really good article.

Keep up the good work.

Being able to get MASN and watch most of the Orioles' games last year I noticed a glaring flaw in Cabrera's delivery. Early in the season, when he was enjoying newfound success and looked like he might have turned the corner, he was driving straight at the hitter. He was running less deep counts. As the season wore on he began to return to his habit of falling sharply off to the left side of the mound and this greatly affected his control. Jim Palmer, one of MASN's announcers, pointed this out many times as well as pin pointing this problem with several other pitchers. This seemed to be an organizational flaw. I don't know what the stats say, but I would bet that the pitcher who drives toward the batter is better off for it.

One other point in favor of Oliver Perez' reputation is his remarkable 2004 season when he was quite possibly the best lefty in baseball. That past success further ensures that other teams will take a chance on him that they can get him back to being that same player.

Thanks for the feedback, guys. I'll likely be following up on this one next week, looking at Cabrera more in-depth. I mentioned his decline from 2006-08 here but didn't discuss it outside of calling Perez the better player and more sound investment. The idea here was more to look at how they both differ from the rest of the league.

Aaron/YYZ, exactly. Cabrera also had a pretty solid 2005 season when he struck people out and induced plenty of grounders. Because these two have shown flashes of brilliance, everyone will do their best to fix flaws.