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January 26, 2009

Future Shock

Orioles Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Chris Tillman, RHP
3. Brian Matusz, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
5. Brandon Erbe, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Nolan Reimold, RF
7. David Hernandez, RHP
8. Troy Patton, LHP
Two-Star Prospects
9. Jason Berken, RHP
10. Brandon Snyder, 1B
11. L.J. Hoes, 2B

Just Missed: Xavier Avery, OF; Brad Bergesen, RHP; Kam Mickolio, RHP

Ranking Challenges: Wieters is the obvious top prospect, but the system's incredible pitching depth creates a lot of uncertainty when trying to sort out those ranked behind him; scouts had wide-ranging opinions on the order of Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta, though for most Arrieta ended up one notch below the other two. The unknowns about Patton following shoulder surgery provide a challenge, while the significant talent drop-off towards the bottom leaves the last three spots to be determined solely by personal preference.

1. Matt Wieters, C
DOB: 5/21/86
Height/Weight: 6-5/230
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Signed: 1^st round, 2007, Georgia Institute of Technology
2008 Stats: .345/.448/.576, .286 EqA at High-A (69 G); .365/.460/.625, .342 EqA at Double-A (61 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 1

Year in Review: Seen by some as the best position prospect in the draft, Wieters ended the year as the best position prospect in all of the minors after dominating at both High- and Double-A.
The Good: A monster on offense, Wieters is a switch-hitter with plus to plus-plus power from both sides of the plate, an excellent batting eye, and a fantastic feel for contact. He walked more times (82) than he struck out (76) in '08, hits to all fields, rarely chases a bad pitch, and punishes mistakes. Defensively, he's incredibly agile behind the plate, and his plus-plus arm can shut down an opponents' running game.
The Bad: Scouts had a great deal of difficulty finding any weaknesses in Wieters' game. Because he's so big, his release on throws is a bit long, but he has more than enough arm strength to make up for it. Some Arizona Fall League observers saw his play as indifferent at times, but few could blame him for being a bit bored, as it's clear that he's head and shoulders above the competition at every minor league level.
Fun Fact: The 2004 Stratford High School team in Goose Creek, South Carolina featured both Wieters and 2008 Rangers first-round pick Justin Smoak, and yes, it was a very good team.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be as good as, if not better than, any catcher in the game.
Glass Half Empty: It's hard to imagine him not becoming an impact player. Even if things go south for one reason or another, he should still be an All-Star.
Path to the Big Leagues: The Ramon Hernandez trade to the Reds cleared the way.
Timetable: Wieters is ready for the big leagues, and few think he'll have any trouble adjusting. There's a good chance that he won't break camp with the O's, but that will merely be a move to manage his service time (see Evan Longoria in 2008), and he should arrive early in the season as a strong Rookie of the Year candidate.