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January 20, 2009

Future Shock

Giants Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

top 11 prospects

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Five-Star Prospects
1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP
2. Buster Posey, C
3. Angel Villalona, 1B
Four-Star Prospects
4. Tim Alderson, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
5. Rafael Rodriguez, RF
6. Conor Gillaspie, 3B
7. Nick Noonan, 2B
8. Travis Ishikawa, 1B
9. Henry Sosa, RHP
10. Sergio Romo, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Roger Kieschnick, OF

Just Missed: Ehire Adrianza, SS; Wendell Fairley, OF; Joseph Martinez, RHP

Ranking Challenges: Bumgarner is an obvious number one, but Posey isn't all that far behind him. Some might flip-flop Villalona and Alderson at three and four, but I can't see either player ranked lower that those two slots. Where Rodriguez slots in is really a matter of your evaluation philosophy, but after that, it's anything goes for the remaining six—Adrianza was the only player close enough to almost make the list.

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30 comments have been left for this article.

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R.A.Wagman

(32721)

Kevin - thanks for the list - would it be possible to get a quick and dirty summary of two of your "just missed"'s - Adrianza and Fairley?

Jan 20, 2009 09:54 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I hit on Fairley below. Adrianza is an absolutely outstanding defensive prospect, but there are tons of questions about his bat.

Jan 20, 2009 12:24 PM

xanthan

(32278)

Awesome ranking, KG.

What's your opinion on Fairley? He seems to divide a lot of Giants fans. And does Kevin Pucetas have enough stuff to work on the backside of a major league rotation?

Jan 20, 2009 10:09 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

In many ways, the jury is still out on Fairley. He's still toolsy as all get out, but a long way from being a baseball player.

Jan 20, 2009 12:23 PM

hrcoll99

(40851)

Hey Kevin, I was wondering what you have heard on LHP Scott Barnes. A lot of scouts and insiders have pegged him as a huge sleeper, and he was completely lights out across 3 levels this past year. Thanks.

Jan 20, 2009 10:18 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I'm perfectly fine with somebody calling him a sleeper. It's not a huge surprise that he ripped through some low levels because of his polish, but the stuff is hardly pedestrian. He's solid across the board with an average-to-plus fastball and decent secondary stuff and he knows what he's doing out there. He could exceed expectations.

Jan 20, 2009 12:21 PM

Drew Miller

(22526)

How can Villalona be ranked so high, when he has done virtually nothing stats-wise to merit that? Is his upside Babe Ruth?

Jan 20, 2009 10:36 AM

rating: 0

billm21

(35836)

If he had Babe Ruth upside he would probably be ranked #1. Seriously, don't get hung up on stats at this level of baseball. The kid was 17 playing full-season ball. If he was from the U.S. he still would have been in high school.

Jan 20, 2009 10:51 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Listen to Bill. Those numbers are actually excellent when you look at the entire context, and not just the statistics alone. Judging prospects solely on the numbers is a fool's game.

Jan 20, 2009 12:20 PM

Drew Miller

(22526)

I tend to go by Sickels' evaluation style, which is that they can't be five-star prospects unless they've at least started to prove they can do something with the tools they have.

Jan 20, 2009 12:37 PM

rating: 0

zywica

(12859)

Why corner yourself with arbtrary rules on how you are allowed to rank guys. Not everyone fits into a simple formula, so when you try to fit everyone to that, you guarantee yourself of missing on some evaluations.

Jan 20, 2009 12:43 PM

rating: 1

Drew Miller

(22526)

True. It's just a preference. It also depends on what one considers a prospect--does one place all their emphasis on upside? Does one consider stats. If so, how much? Does health play a role in one's prospect-dom?

Frankly I don't think considering a relatively inflexible set of rules for evaluating prospects is a bad idea. We have statistical bases for evaluating major league players--why not come up with a statistical basis for evaluating prospects?

Which isn't to say that my current philosophy on prospects is the right one--especially since I haven't based it in stats *or* scouting reports.

Jan 20, 2009 12:55 PM

rating: 0

Drew Miller

(22526)

I agree with this, BTW. I do think Villalona's a rare talent. I just don't know if I would make him a five-star prospect based solely on upside. Most other 18-year-olds with amazing tools get four-star ratings with a comment of "Lots of tools, but has yet to do much with them."

Kevin, I may not necessarily agree with your assessment of Villalona, but Future Shock is my favorite feature of BP. I hope nobody thinks I'm being too harsh.

Jan 20, 2009 13:06 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I don't take it that way at all. Like I said in the "Ranking Challenges" section, it's really a philosophy thing. If you have the philosophy of not ranking a guy until he's proven something, that's fine, I just don't agree with it. Everybody does things a little bit different. If some don't like me making Villalona five-star based on a year-and-a-half here, there's gonna be some real fun when we get to Oakland.

Jan 20, 2009 15:19 PM

Drew Miller

(22526)

Thanks Kevin for the responses and the work you put in.

Who on Oakland do you project for stardom? Or should I wait along with everyone else?

Jan 22, 2009 06:59 AM

rating: 1

mymrbig

(38334)

KG, where does Sandoval's glove fit, if not 3rd? I've read mixed reviews on his catching defense but it doesn't sound like he has the speed to really play anything other than an infield corner or catcher. If you think his glove will limit him to 1st, what do you make of his bat there?

Sorry for the number of questions on him, but not many people were really asking these questions about him before he went absolutely crazy last year!

Jan 20, 2009 11:05 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Just to blow my own horn for a sec, I'm the guy who had him on my prospect list coming INTO the year. I really think 1B is his only option, to the point that he might fit a bit better on a AL team. I do think he can hit enough to be an every day first baseman, certainly at least on this team.

Jan 20, 2009 12:19 PM

Matthew Avery

(39859)

With three guys (Sandoval, Ishikawa, Villalona) destined for 1B, who do you think eventually wins the job long-term? Any chance Sandoval gets moved if Ishikawa keeps hitting?

Jan 20, 2009 12:31 PM

rating: 0

beta461

(7010)

Was Jesus Guzman's winter line a complete fluke? Clayon Tanner seems to put up consistant numbers every year. Does he project as a big league starter?

Jan 20, 2009 11:57 AM

rating: 0

Бей

(40517)

Is Roger Kieschnick related to Brooks Kieschnick?

Jan 20, 2009 12:10 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Cousin.

Jan 20, 2009 12:16 PM

zywica

(12859)

Does Jose Casilla have breakout potential in 2009?

Jan 20, 2009 12:21 PM

rating: 0

markjstachura

(20359)

Why has it been taking so long to get a Top 11 for each team this year?

Jan 20, 2009 13:06 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

There were some issues outside of the BP world that slowed things down. They're in the past and expect a quick rolling from here on out. The Prospect Rankings are a one-man show, so I was the holdup, but not anymore. Also, they're a one-man show on a writing level only, as Brad and Will have bone done great stuff on the radio, while one of our interns, Matt Bishoff, has been of huge value to all three of us.

Jan 20, 2009 15:23 PM

momansf

(32045)

Just curious where would Fred Lewis, Johnathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson be if they were still on this list. Lincecum and Cain are obvious five stars, Pablo is a definite four star, Burriss and Schierholtz are three star players, but these three are a bit more gray area.

Jan 20, 2009 13:45 PM

rating: 0

ericmilburn

(30772)

Actually, judging by Kevin's above ratings, Pablo would be a 5 star player.

Jan 20, 2009 23:15 PM

rating: 0

alskor

(39403)

No need to do the Nats(Not much to talk about there anyway)! Get to the A.L. already, please!!

Jan 20, 2009 19:01 PM

rating: 0

sharksrog

(8876)

Test

Jan 23, 2009 12:17 PM

rating: -1

sharksrog

(8876)

Angel Villalona's introduction to the U.S. may be a more difficult adjustment than we can truly realize, but are you concerned by his very poor K/BB ratio (118/18) and that it didn't improve as the season went on?

Also, while he has good power to right-center, does he need to make adjustments to hit the outside pitch, particularly if it curves and is low?

As you know, San Jose is just down the Peninsula from SF, so it appears Giants fans should have a bountiful year watching the Little Giants play.

Jan 23, 2009 12:18 PM

rating: 0

airlifting

(35353)

I know you said his velocity had been down (and that they were actually going to shut him down?) in one of your minor league updates...but Bumgarner looked terrible uninspiring last night. Per the TV gun, he sat more around 89-90 and, I hate to say it, looked like a LOOGY with more pitches. At this point I'd lean more towards an argument that Aaron Poreda - who I firmly believe is a reliever in the majors - has a better chance at starting than Mad-Bum.

Sep 08, 2009 23:25 PM

rating: 0

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<< Previous Article

Over There, Over There (01/20)

<< Previous Column

Future Shock: Padres T... (01/16)

Next Column >>

Future Shock: National... (01/23)

Next Article >>

Dustying Up (01/21)

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